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AI COMPANY RESEARCH

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Company-specific AI estimates, ranked by discount to base value.

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Company	Price	AI bear	AI base	AI bull	Margin of safety	Why this estimate
MU Micron Technology Inc.	$934.27	$296.90	$873.46	$1,826.16	-7.0% vs base	Micron的估值核心是AI/HBM需求能讓記憶體高利潤維持多久，以及擴廠、應收款與可退還客戶預付款會消耗多少現金。模型用公司專屬的成長、週期正常化與產能投資情境，沒有直接把最近的高峰單季乘四。
AVGO Broadcom Inc	$345.00	$101.76	$313.50	$713.88	-10.0% vs base	Broadcom combines rapidly growing AI custom silicon/networking with recurring infrastructure software. The forecast models that growth and its cash conversion directly, including working-capital and debt repayment needs.
2317.TW 鴻海	NT$245.50	NT$62.51	NT$219.28	NT$395.31	-12.0% vs base	鴻海的AI機櫃與高速網路成長很強，但股東價值取決於成長扣掉存貨、應收帳款、全球擴廠、租賃及少數股權後還剩多少現金。H1獲利增加卻出現營業現金流出，因此本模型沒有把營收成長直接等同FCFE；另納入2027三菱投資與可轉債賣回。
2330.TW 台積電	NT$2,370.00	NT$765.07	NT$1,841.98	NT$3,203.02	-28.7% vs base	台積電的核心論點是先進製程需求轉化為股東現金，而不只是營收成長。基準情境讓2027–31年營收成長逐步降至6%、淨利率降至45%，並保留龐大建廠支出；悲觀與樂觀情境分別檢驗AI投資降溫及產能變現。此為TWD普通股FCFE草稿，非ADR美元估值。
PG Procter & Gamble Co.	$160.59	$62.16	$112.95	$167.95	-42.2% vs base	P&G的品牌與通路能否把穩定消費需求轉成股東現金，是估值核心。最新季度量與組合改善，但原物料、利息與投資仍壓抑現金成長。模型逐年推估收入、歸屬盈餘、工廠投資、營運資金與併購後還債，不把近期借款或回購增厚當成永久成長。
NVDA NVIDIA Corp	$213.66	$50.57	$148.59	$263.91	-43.8% vs base	NVIDIA's valuation hinges on whether exceptional AI system demand turns into distributable cash after customer financing, supplier capacity, ecosystem equity investment and contingent credit support. Forecasts normalize out securities gains and model annual operating revenue/margins, reinvestment, d
KO Coca-Cola Co	$92.82	$27.65	$59.25	$90.16	-56.7% vs base	Coca-Cola的估值取決於品牌定價與新興市場需求能否在裝瓶業務出售後維持現金成長。最新Q3強勁，但2027營收有約8%結構性逆風，且IRS稅務訴訟是重大尾部風險。模型逐年處理資本支出、股權法收益轉現金、償債及條件式稅款，而非把近期成長率直接永久外推。
GOOGL Alphabet Inc	$283.82	$59.58	$178.20	$437.08	-59.3% vs base	Alphabet combines Search advertising cash generation with an unusually large AI/Cloud investment cycle. This draft models that transition explicitly; it does not extrapolate current low free cash flow.
2412.TW 中華電	NT$160.00	NT$48.53	NT$98.38	NT$145.30	-62.6% vs base	中華電信的估值核心是成熟電信現金流能否抵銷AIDC、海纜及ICT專案投資。5G升級與寬頻提速支持溫和成長，但專案營收、合併少數股權、租賃及資本支出使EBITDA不能直接當股東現金。本草稿分三情境逐年預測；不是把最新營收成長率永久外推。
HD Home Depot, Inc.	$328.98	$108.01	$201.97	$294.94	-62.9% vs base	Home Depot’s valuation depends on whether a gradual home-improvement recovery and Pro/SRS integration translate into cash after store investment, trade working capital and debt reduction. This AI model separates retail and distribution economics, removes recurring tariff-refund expectations and expl
AMAT Applied Materials Inc.	$421.66	$109.53	$257.16	$460.90	-64.0% vs base	Applied Materials faces an AI-led equipment upcycle with expansion spending and strategic packaging investment. This draft models annual business drivers rather than extending the existing FCF proxy.
V Visa Inc	$410.54	$142.45	$243.97	$377.34	-68.3% vs base	Visa's payment-processing network grows with payment volumes, cross-border commerce and services, while incentive renewal costs and litigation cash affect conversion into distributable equity cash. This AI estimate forecasts net revenue/margin, technology spending, noncash working capital, acquisiti
META Meta Platforms Inc	$624.52	$144.67	$369.02	$758.37	-69.2% vs base	Meta 的廣告業務仍強，但 AI 基建支出已令 Q3 公司定義的自由現金流轉負。本草稿逐年推估廣告／新產品成長、營業利益率、折舊、資本支出、非現金營運資金、債務融資與訴訟現金支出，並把新募資造成的稀釋獨立處理。不是已審核估值，也不把接近1000億美元募資標題當作已收到現金。
MA Mastercard Incorporated	$635.70	$188.86	$370.72	$564.91	-71.5% vs base	Mastercard’s network scale and faster-growing services support durable earnings, but incentive prepayments, litigation and higher required returns limit equity value. AI scenarios forecast cash components individually rather than extending EPS growth into FCFE.
PM Philip Morris International Inc	$208.50	$60.66	$121.33	$182.55	-71.8% vs base	Philip Morris的估值取決於IQOS／ZYN等非燃燒產品能否在提高行銷與產能投資後，持續補上紙菸量縮的缺口。近期現金流受退休金退款與菸稅支付時點幫助，不能直接永久外推；模型分開推估兩類業務、資本支出、營運資金、少數股權及去槓桿。這是財務情境研究，不是產品健康聲稱或投資背書。
ORCL Oracle Corp.	$139.56	-$26.28	$79.35	$216.25	-75.9% vs base	Reported facts: Q1 FY2027 revenue and IaaS growth were strong, but capex exceeded operating cash flow and quarterly FCF was negative. Q1 CFO included large customer prepayments/deferred revenue, so it is not treated as normalized annual cash generation. Oracle issued 141m ATM shares in Q1. Managemen
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc.	$108.59	$43.41	$60.41	$85.21	-79.7% vs base	Initial, unreviewed company-specific FCFE scenario draft. FY2027 NI anchors on management GAAP EPS guidance midpoint × latest diluted weighted-average shares; later assumptions are explicitly AI hypotheses.
JNJ Johnson & Johnson	$275.20	$69.71	$147.80	$238.17	-86.2% vs base	JNJ 的估值取決於新藥與心血管醫材成長能否抵銷 Stelara 流失，以及 talc 和外部研發投資對現金的消耗。本模型逐年預估正常化 common NI、折舊攤銷、廠房投資、營運資金、償債與訴訟／管線現金，不把 adjusted EPS 直接當 FCFE。
AMZN Amazon.com Inc.	$243.79	$37.66	$129.88	$307.41	-87.7% vs base	Assumptions under revision Amazon 的核心變數是 AWS 快速成長能否轉為股東可分配現金，而非只看 GAAP 盈餘。最新 Q3 財報顯示雲端成長和營業利益改善，但 AI 資本支出讓公司公布的過去十二個月自由現金流轉負。本草稿以 AWS／非 AWS 營業額及利潤率逐年推估常態 NI，再逐項扣除投資、營運資金與償債。三情境仍未獲研究審核，不作低估或目標價警報依據。
XOM ExxonMobil Holdings Corp.	$183.29	$47.04	$95.48	$164.51	-92.0% vs base	ExxonMobil’s low-cost Guyana/Permian growth can support cash generation, but Q2 scarcity-driven earnings should not become a perpetual baseline. Base FCFE normalizes commodity margins and funds $30-32bn annual PP&E investment. This pre-Q3 AI estimate must refresh after today’s scheduled release; con
CAT Caterpillar Inc.	$647.39	$179.23	$334.03	$503.20	-93.8% vs base	Caterpillar的估值關鍵是資料中心電力與服務成長，能否抵銷工程／礦業循環與擴產現金需求。這份草稿把工業業務與融資／保險子公司分開：保留金融部門所需股本後，才計入可分配現金；不把金融放款當一般存貨，也不把借新債當成永久股東收益。
MRK Merck & Co Inc	$146.33	$27.27	$70.44	$140.39	-107.7% vs base	Merck is a Keytruda patent-transition and pipeline-replacement valuation, not a constant-growth earnings multiple. Ten annual forecast years explicitly cross potential US competition from late 2028 and European erosion around 2031 before terminal growth. Cash-funded external innovation and deleverag
AAPL Apple Inc	$348.91	$89.53	$165.89	$269.29	-110.3% vs base	Apple is a mature device ecosystem with expanding Services revenue and an AI-enabled product cycle. Recent sales momentum supports a range of growth outcomes, but temporary tariff refunds and a premium starting market valuation make normalized cash generation the central issue.
LLY Lilly(Eli) & Co	$1,373.70	$183.14	$635.27	$1,371.41	-116.2% vs base	Lilly 的最新財報顯示需求與全年營收指引上修，但降價、一次性收入、製造擴張和大型研發收購會改變真正可分配股東現金流。此草稿分開預測 Mounjaro、Zepbound 與其他產品，逐年扣除營運資金、廠房投資、外部研發／收購現金及去槓桿，並保留已費用化股權薪酬。它是待審核情境分析，不是買賣建議或已核准公允價值。
ABBV Abbvie Inc	$290.79	$52.68	$127.23	$225.58	-128.6% vs base	AbbVie is rebuilding cash earnings around Skyrizi, Rinvoq and neuroscience as Humira and Imbruvica decline. Research draft models explicit recurring NI, amortization, cash contingent consideration, pipeline reinvestment and debt reduction; it is not a mechanical adjusted-EPS multiple.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation	$530.14	$24.70	$180.29	$428.65	-194.0% vs base	Assumptions under revision 微軟的核心是 Azure 容量與 M365/Copilot 商業化能否把快速成長轉成股東現金。最新季度成長強，但現金 PP&E、元件採購預付、租賃本金及折舊也迅速增加。本草稿分別推估 Azure、M365 cloud 與其他業務，並保留早年負 FCFE 的可能性；不是用單一通用成長率外推。
AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	$566.42	$59.48	$189.76	$456.32	-198.5% vs base	Assumptions under revision AMD is transitioning from CPU/client and embedded exposure toward a larger AI accelerator and rack-scale business. This draft explicitly forecasts annual earnings, reinvestment and working capital rather than extrapolating a generic FCF growth rate.
COST Costco Wholesale Corp	$996.08	$199.65	$321.78	$525.73	-209.6% vs base	Costco的修正重點是把高成長擴店期與成熟期分開：保留前五年盈餘與擴張支出，再用五年過渡到較低成長及有資金支持的終值。供應商融資與預收會員費不應自動變成永久營運資金流出；但也不能重複把2026年的現金改善當每年紅利。這次上修來自模型結構修正，不是新財報突然證明股價低估。
WMT Walmart Inc	$121.25	$7.92	$26.98	$55.27	-349.4% vs base	Assumptions under revision Walmart combines mature retail cash generation with expanding advertising, membership and eCommerce economics. The model asks whether automation and digital mix convert earnings growth into parent-shareholder cash after high omnichannel capex, working capital and lease/debt repayments.
TSLA Tesla Inc	$403.30	-$1.56	$16.39	$45.26	-2360.5% vs base	Tesla 的現金價值取決於汽車/服務盈利、儲能擴張，以及自駕與機器人投資何時轉成可分配現金。三情境逐年建模重資本投資和融資；沒有把 Robotaxi 故事直接當作已實現利潤。這是低信心 AI FCFE 情境估計。
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc.	$541.96	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co.	$343.58	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
INTC Intel Corp.	$92.07	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc	$196.42	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CVX Chevron Corp.	$231.46	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
UNH Unitedhealth Group Inc	$410.91	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BAC Bank Of America Corp.	$51.14	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc	$380.57	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
LRCX Lam Research Corp.	$254.39	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DELL Dell Technologies Inc	$475.51	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GE GE Aerospace	$313.05	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MS Morgan Stanley	$190.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TXN Texas Instruments Inc.	$312.94	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings Inc	$261.15	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GS Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.	$927.73	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
RTX RTX Corp	$199.40	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.	$709.18	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NFLX Netflix Inc.	$62.05	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
WFC Wells Fargo & Co.	$84.81	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
AMGN AMGEN Inc.	$460.73	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
IBM International Business Machines Corp.	$258.28	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ANET Arista Networks Inc	$184.22	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
LIN Linde Plc.	$503.15	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GEV GE Vernova Inc.	$887.85	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
KLAC KLA Corporation Common Stock	$167.43	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
AXP American Express Company	$323.71	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ADI Analog Devices, Inc.	$433.28	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
C Citigroup Inc.	$125.76	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GILD Gilead Sciences Inc	$165.61	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
APH Amphenol Corporation	$82.08	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
QCOM Qualcomm Inc	$185.41	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Common Stock	$218.34	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SNDK Sandisk Corporation Common Stock	$1,330.05	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DIS The Walt Disney Company	$110.91	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CRM Salesforce, Inc.	$230.90	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.	$133.79	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MCD McDonald's Corporation	$257.38	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BLK Blackrock, Inc.	$1,176.24	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
VZ Verizon Communications	$43.66	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ABT Abbott Laboratories	$104.57	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
COP ConocoPhillips	$150.03	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
UNP Union Pacific Corp.	$301.93	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DE Deere & Company	$660.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NEE NextEra Energy, Inc.	$82.14	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PFE Pfizer Inc.	$29.95	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
WELL Welltower Inc.	$233.17	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DHR Danaher Corporation	$236.98	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
STX Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)	$700.47	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc.	$448.76	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc.	$147.29	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TJX TJX Companies, Inc. (The)	$141.39	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation	$89.47	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ETN Eaton Corporation, plc Ordinary Shares	$393.72	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ACN Accenture PLC	$247.22	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
LMT Lockheed Martin Corp.	$643.59	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
WDC Western Digital Corp.	$395.41	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
T AT&T Inc.	$20.92	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CB Chubb Limited	$362.28	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc	$540.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BA Boeing Company	$172.65	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
UBER Uber Technologies, Inc.	$65.74	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SPGI S&P Global Inc.	$460.66	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PGR Progressive Corporation	$230.18	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MO Altria Group, Inc.	$76.75	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
COF Capital One Financial	$208.74	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.	$61.39	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MDT Medtronic plc	$97.11	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PLD PROLOGIS, INC.	$128.02	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION	$432.51	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SBUX Starbucks Corp	$105.51	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SYK Stryker Corporation	$311.75	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation	$928.45	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
LOW Lowe's Companies Inc.	$207.28	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2454.TW 聯發科	NT$3,915.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2308.TW 台達電	NT$1,335.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3711.TW 日月光投控	NT$668.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2881.TW 富邦金	NT$161.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
1303.TW 南亞	NT$296.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2303.TW 聯電	NT$111.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3037.TW 欣興	NT$989.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2383.TW 台光電	NT$4,675.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2882.TW 國泰金	NT$116.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2408.TW 南亞科	NT$454.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2382.TW 廣達	NT$318.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3017.TW 奇鋐	NT$3,095.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2891.TW 中信金	NT$75.80	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
6669.TW 緯穎	NT$1,810.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2059.TW 川湖	NT$9,650.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2327.TW 國巨*	NT$502.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3443.TW 創意	NT$7,635.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2887.TW 台新新光金	NT$42.25	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3653.TW 健策	NT$6,315.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2345.TW 智邦	NT$1,615.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
7769.TW 鴻勁	NT$4,950.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2885.TW 元大金	NT$72.60	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
6505.TW 台塑化	NT$98.30	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2360.TW 致茂	NT$1,755.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
8046.TW 南電	NT$1,190.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2344.TW 華邦電	NT$164.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2884.TW 玉山金	NT$49.05	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3008.TW 大立光	NT$5,430.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2886.TW 兆豐金	NT$54.80	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2357.TW 華碩	NT$906.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2883.TW 凱基金	NT$37.80	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2890.TW 永豐金	NT$46.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2301.TW 光寶科	NT$240.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2880.TW 華南金	NT$50.40	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3231.TW 緯創	NT$183.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2395.TW 研華	NT$680.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2368.TW 金像電	NT$1,020.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
4958.TW 臻鼎-KY	NT$486.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2892.TW 第一金	NT$44.60	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
2603.TW 長榮	NT$271.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3665.TW 貿聯-KY	NT$1,625.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
6446.TW 藥華藥	NT$1,190.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3189.TW 景碩	NT$932.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3045.TW 台灣大	NT$133.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
3481.TW 群創	NT$42.55	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
1301.TW 台塑	NT$72.50	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
1216.TW 統一	NT$80.20	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NEM Newmont Corporation	$111.80	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION	$90.33	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MCK McKesson Corporation	$980.88	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NOW SERVICENOW, INC.	$109.67	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ADP Automatic Data Processing	$286.08	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock	$150.43	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GLW Corning Incorporated	$128.88	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
VLO Valero Energy Corporation	$384.57	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SO The Southern Company	$92.99	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PSX PHILLIPS 66	$273.61	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CME CME Group Inc.	$296.42	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MAR Marriott International Class A Common Stock	$399.65	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc.	$478.08	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
EQIX Equinix, Inc. Common Stock REIT	$1,036.67	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
FTNT Fortinet, Inc.	$139.10	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BNY Bank of New York Mellon Corporation	$149.37	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GD General Dynamics Corporation	$370.82	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DUK Duke Energy Corporation	$125.90	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ABNB Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock	$166.45	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CSX CSX Corporation	$52.24	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ADBE Adobe Inc.	$248.12	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BX Blackstone Inc.	$120.60	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
JCI Johnson Controls International plc	$158.27	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PWR Quanta Services, Inc.	$635.18	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DDOG Datadog, Inc. Class A Common Stock	$265.84	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
EMR Emerson Electric Co.	$170.74	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
FCX Freeport-McMoran Inc.	$66.14	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TT Trane Technologies plc	$431.10	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Class A Common Stock	$245.92	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
USB U.S. Bancorp	$60.64	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CDNS Cadence Design Systems	$342.75	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SNPS Synopsys Inc	$490.19	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Common Stock	$264.58	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MRSH Marsh	$197.03	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
PNC PNC Financial Services Group	$231.83	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
WM Waste Management, Inc.	$230.90	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
WMB Williams Companies Inc.	$74.88	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ICE Intercontinental Exchange Inc.	$163.04	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ELV Elevance Health, Inc.	$422.02	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MMM 3M Company	$177.36	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B	$107.33	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MNST Monster Beverage Corporation	$46.35	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MRNA Moderna, Inc. Common Stock	$222.76	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
INTU Intuit Inc	$331.19	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
AMT American Tower Corporation	$185.88	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CTAS Cintas Corp	$218.07	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
KKR KKR & Co. Inc.	$95.82	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
APP Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock	$254.91	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
EOG EOG Resources, Inc.	$162.22	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ECL Ecolab, Inc.	$300.86	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc	$818.77	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MCO Moody's Corporation	$488.83	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock	$919.53	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
RCL Royal Caribbean Group	$310.54	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. Class A Common Stock	$91.59	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc.	$205.94	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.	$398.27	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. New	$492.08	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc.	$281.40	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NOC Northrop Grumman Corp.	$562.36	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. Class A	$62.53	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company	$330.10	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SLB SLB Limited	$53.81	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.	$356.93	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CMCSA Comcast Corp	$22.27	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CI The Cigna Group	$298.41	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company	$58.87	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DASH DoorDash, Inc. Class A Common Stock	$179.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NSC Norfolk Southern Corp.	$342.19	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc.	$33.97	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CVNA Carvana Co.	$68.31	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CL Colgate-Palmolive Company	$93.16	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
URI United Rentals, Inc.	$1,198.68	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ROST Ross Stores Inc	$232.30	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
FDX FedEx Corporation	$307.82	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GM General Motors Company	$85.72	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
RSG Republic Services Inc.	$236.28	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
CMI Cummins Inc.	$518.03	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.	$88.07	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc.	$129.34	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
HON Honeywell International, Inc.	$222.14	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
APO Apollo Global Management, Inc.	$118.56	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
SPG Simon Property Group, Inc.	$215.72	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
APD Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.	$311.75	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TGT Target Corporation	$151.82	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	$268.20	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
AON Aon plc Class A	$321.64	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
DLR Digital Realty Trust, Inc.	$182.91	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V.	$266.00	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TRGP Targa Resources Corp.	$312.37	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
BE Bloom Energy Corporation	$222.30	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated	$1,175.91	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
ALL The Allstate Corporation	$255.92	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc.	$1,371.86	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
TEL TE Connectivity plc	$222.76	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
MET MetLife, Inc.	$100.83	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
COR Cencora, Inc.	$330.53	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation	$63.01	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
NUE Nucor Corporation	$275.29	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.
AFL Aflac Inc.	$123.54	—	—	—	N/A	Research queued — no company-specific estimate yet.

Margin of safety is the discount to the AI base estimate, not a guarantee against losses. Daily price moves are shown separately. Quote timestamps and full source records are available in each company.

FCFE · AI estimate

NVDA NVIDIA Corp

$213.66

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:00.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$50.57

BASE · USD / SHARE$148.59

BULL · USD / SHARE$263.91

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-43.8%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

NVIDIA's valuation hinges on whether exceptional AI system demand turns into distributable cash after customer financing, supplier capacity, ecosystem equity investment and contingent credit support. Forecasts normalize out securities gains and model annual operating revenue/margins, reinvestment, debt repayment and strategic cash uses; they do not just extend reported GAAP net income.

bear · Equity cost 12.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $50.57 / share

AI downside hypothesis: order growth moderates, Rubin transitions and export restrictions weigh on mix, gross-to-operating margin falls as competing accelerators/custom silicon and ecosystem compute expenses grow. Customers require extended terms, increasing noncash working capital; equity/capacity support remains cash-intensive. Strategic investment/guarantee-risk cash deductions are explicit estimates, not crystallized liabilities. Tax 19%; after-tax net financing cost deducted separately. CoE12.5%/g2% are nominal stress assumptions, not contemporaneously calibrated market outputs. Forecast periods are five full fiscal years FY2028-FY2032; FY2032 extension explicitly assumes continued scale expansion, decelerating growth/margins and reinvestment. Remaining FY2027 cash flows are omitted rather than treated as a full annual period.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+175,175

Depreciation+5,400

Capital expenditure-13,000

Working capital-28,000

Net borrowing-3,000

Other adjustments-25,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 12.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 63.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	175,175	5,400	13,000	28,000	-3,000	-25,000	111,575
2029	173,191	6,000	14,000	20,000	-3,000	-25,000	117,191
2030	179,209	6,500	14,500	19,000	-4,000	-20,000	128,209
2031	184,887	7,000	15,000	18,000	-4,000	-18,000	136,887
2032	190,225	7,500	15,500	17,000	-4,000	-16,000	145,225

2028 adjustment: AI-estimated strategic equity/capacity reinvestment and expected contingent-support cash costs outside PP&E. NI excludes securities fair-value gains; no investment-asset add-back. This is forecast cash use, not reported liability or maximum guarantee exposure.

2029 adjustment: AI-estimated strategic equity/capacity reinvestment and expected contingent-support cash costs outside PP&E. NI excludes securities fair-value gains; no investment-asset add-back. This is forecast cash use, not reported liability or maximum guarantee exposure.

2030 adjustment: AI-estimated strategic equity/capacity reinvestment and expected contingent-support cash costs outside PP&E. NI excludes securities fair-value gains; no investment-asset add-back. This is forecast cash use, not reported liability or maximum guarantee exposure.

2031 adjustment: AI-estimated strategic equity/capacity reinvestment and expected contingent-support cash costs outside PP&E. NI excludes securities fair-value gains; no investment-asset add-back. This is forecast cash use, not reported liability or maximum guarantee exposure.

2032 adjustment: AI-estimated strategic equity/capacity reinvestment and expected contingent-support cash costs outside PP&E. NI excludes securities fair-value gains; no investment-asset add-back. Forecast cash use, not reported liability or maximum guarantee exposure.

Base · Central case $148.59 / share

AI base hypothesis: FY2028 data-center revenue starts from an assumed expansion of the most recent Q3FY27 management guide, without assuming China data-center compute sales. Rubin, sovereign/enterprise demand and networking expand the installed base; annual data-center growth decelerates from FY28 through FY31. Operating margin eases from64% in FY28 to57% by FY32, rather than extrapolating current exceptional profitability indefinitely. Tax17% follows FY27 guidance for forecast start and is an explicit later-year hypothesis. Receivables and inventory continue absorbing cash. Explicit strategic-equity/capacity cash uses capture reinvestment outside PP&E. Rates10.5%/2.5% are nominal analyst scenario assumptions; no risk-free/beta/ERP calibration is represented. Forecast periods are five full fiscal years FY2028-FY2032; FY2032 extension explicitly assumes continued scale expansion, decelerating growth/margins and reinvestment. Remaining FY2027 cash flows are omitted rather than treated as a full annual period.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+264,069

Depreciation+6,000

Capital expenditure-14,000

Working capital-28,000

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-23,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 72.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	264,069	6,000	14,000	28,000	-2,000	-23,000	203,069
2029	306,731	7,500	17,000	25,000	-3,000	-20,000	249,231
2030	341,126	9,000	20,000	22,000	-4,000	-18,000	286,126
2031	362,938	10,500	23,000	20,000	-4,000	-16,000	310,438
2032	386,942	12,000	26,000	19,000	-4,000	-15,000	334,942

Bull · Optimistic case $263.91 / share

AI upside hypothesis: Rubin shipments, networking attach, sovereign and enterprise demand sustain rapid expansion, with strong pricing/software differentiation keeping operating margins elevated. Growth decelerates as scale increases; larger capex and noncash working-capital uses accompany greater sales. Supplier execution and customer financing must remain healthy. Tax16% starts at lower end of FY27 guide; later-year rate is a hypothesis. Rates9.5%/3% are nominal optimistic scenario assumptions, not company guidance or calibrated observed discount inputs. Forecast periods are five full fiscal years FY2028-FY2032; FY2032 extension explicitly assumes continued scale expansion, decelerating growth/margins and reinvestment. Remaining FY2027 cash flows are omitted rather than treated as a full annual period.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+307,801

Depreciation+6,500

Capital expenditure-16,000

Working capital-26,000

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-22,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 77.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	307,801	6,500	16,000	26,000	-1,000	-22,000	249,301
2029	393,212	8,500	21,000	30,000	-2,000	-22,000	326,712
2030	463,638	11,000	26,000	32,000	-3,000	-20,000	393,638
2031	518,574	13,000	31,000	32,000	-4,000	-20,000	444,574
2032	573,560	15,000	35,000	33,000	-4,000	-20,000	496,560

Reported financial facts

H1FY27 NI118,010m included23,707m securities gains; CFO74,421m and CapEx/intangibles4,434m. H1 operating assets/liabilities absorbed27,164m (24,590+10,204+6,480-4,125-8,015-1,970). Debt issuance provided24,896m; equity purchases used42,404m. 24,338m diluted weighted-average shares. These are reported USD millions.

Management guidance

Q3FY27 revenue108,000m+/-2%, gross margin74%+/-50bp, GAAP OpEx9,200m; FY27 tax16%-18%. No China data-center compute revenue assumed.

Forecast Drivers

Name
bear
Periods
- Year
  2028
  Period
  Full fiscal 2028
  Data Center Revenue
  345000
  Edge Revenue
  30000
  Operating Margin
  0.58
  Tax Rate
  0.19
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2029
  Period
  Full fiscal 2029
  Data Center Revenue
  360000
  Edge Revenue
  31000
  Operating Margin
  0.55
  Tax Rate
  0.19
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2030
  Period
  Full fiscal 2030
  Data Center Revenue
  380000
  Edge Revenue
  32000
  Operating Margin
  0.54
  Tax Rate
  0.19
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2031
  Period
  Full fiscal 2031
  Data Center Revenue
  400000
  Edge Revenue
  33000
  Operating Margin
  0.53
  Tax Rate
  0.19
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2032
  Period
  Full fiscal 2032
  Data Center Revenue
  420000
  Edge Revenue
  34000
  Operating Margin
  0.52
  Tax Rate
  0.19
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
Name
base
Periods
- Year
  2028
  Period
  Full fiscal 2028
  Data Center Revenue
  465000
  Edge Revenue
  34000
  Operating Margin
  0.64
  Tax Rate
  0.17
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2029
  Period
  Full fiscal 2029
  Data Center Revenue
  560000
  Edge Revenue
  38000
  Operating Margin
  0.62
  Tax Rate
  0.17
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2030
  Period
  Full fiscal 2030
  Data Center Revenue
  645000
  Edge Revenue
  42000
  Operating Margin
  0.6
  Tax Rate
  0.17
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2031
  Period
  Full fiscal 2031
  Data Center Revenue
  710000
  Edge Revenue
  46000
  Operating Margin
  0.58
  Tax Rate
  0.17
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2032
  Period
  Full fiscal 2032
  Data Center Revenue
  770000
  Edge Revenue
  50000
  Operating Margin
  0.57
  Tax Rate
  0.17
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
Name
bull
Periods
- Year
  2028
  Period
  Full fiscal 2028
  Data Center Revenue
  520000
  Edge Revenue
  37000
  Operating Margin
  0.66
  Tax Rate
  0.16
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2029
  Period
  Full fiscal 2029
  Data Center Revenue
  680000
  Edge Revenue
  42000
  Operating Margin
  0.65
  Tax Rate
  0.16
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2030
  Period
  Full fiscal 2030
  Data Center Revenue
  830000
  Edge Revenue
  48000
  Operating Margin
  0.63
  Tax Rate
  0.16
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2031
  Period
  Full fiscal 2031
  Data Center Revenue
  960000
  Edge Revenue
  54000
  Operating Margin
  0.61
  Tax Rate
  0.16
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000
- Year
  2032
  Period
  Full fiscal 2032
  Data Center Revenue
  1080000
  Edge Revenue
  60000
  Operating Margin
  0.6
  Tax Rate
  0.16
  After Tax Net Financing Cost
  1000

AI forecast assumptions

All FY2028-FY2032 full-year forecast components are AI scenarios, not management guidance. NI = (data-center+edge revenue)*operating margin*(1-tax)-assumed after-tax net financing cost. Future securities capital gains are excluded; interest/tax remain embedded. PP&E/intangible capex is separate from working capital and strategic equity/capacity cash spending. Forecast net borrowing is negative debt repayment, not financing from equity issuance.

Forecast timing

Five full annual forecast periods FY2028-FY2032 only, discounted at the app's year-end annual convention. Remaining FY2027 stub cash flows are omitted rather than squeezed into a full annual period. This omitted-period simplification makes the output an annual forward forecast comparison, not an exact fractional-period spot valuation as of2026-10-30. Prior v1's H2stub-as-annual representation is superseded.

Capital Policy

Fixed diluted shares; SBC expense not added back; no credit for forecast buybacks and no separate subtraction of dividends/buybacks. No second debt subtraction. Existing non-operating investment assets are not separately added; this is a conservative omission, not a sum-of-parts valuation.

Risk Rates

Nominal CoE/g are explicitly assumed scenario risk ranges, not current market-calibrated estimates. Cost of equity requires later source-based risk-free/beta/ERP calibration; terminal g reflects assumed mature nominal growth well below each cost of equity.

Confidence & limitations

Low-to-medium: filings/guidance sources high confidence, cash commitments and long-range AI spending/competition/financing forecasts highly uncertain. Not an approved fair value or buy signal.

Evidence against the thesis

GAAP earnings include equity marks; extended customer terms, inventory/capacity prepayments, high ecosystem commitments, unassigned leases and SB Energy guarantees can reduce cash conversion. Custom accelerators, competing chips, export restrictions, yields and power availability can reduce growth or margins.

Current News

Oct26 Meta partnership includes planned$3B equity investment as evidence for ongoing ecosystem strategic cash deductions in full-year forecasts; the FY2027 $3B announced investment itself falls in the omitted FY2027 period and is not represented as a future FY2028 outflow. Oct28 official notice sets Q3results release Nov17; Q3endedOct25 but has no actual published financial figures yet. These business announcements support direction of scenario demand but do not supply recognized revenue.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed H1 FY2027 diluted weighted-average share count of 24,338 million, from July26 2026 10-Q. SBC remains expensed and is NOT added back, to recognize its economic cost; no forecast buyback benefit or further net dilution in denominator. Cash buybacks/dividends are distributions and not deducted. Sensitivity to actual future diluted claims remains material.

24338 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q ↗

Published 2026-08-26 · Report Quarter/H1 ended2026-07-26

Quarter Revenue: 96221
Quarter NI: 59688
H1NI: 118010
H1DA: 2124
H1CFO: 74421
H1Capex Intangibles: 4434
H1Equity Gains: 23707
H1Equity Purchases: 42404
H1Debt Proceeds: 24896
H1Diluted Shares: 24338
H1Cash Change Operating Assets Liabilities: -27164
Senior Notes Principal: 33500

NVIDIA FY2026 Form 10-K ↗

Published 2026-02-25 · Report FY ended2026-01-25; comparison FY2025

FY26NI: 120067
FY25NI: 72880
FY26CFO: 102718
FY25CFO: 64089
FY26DA: 2843
FY26Capex Intangibles: 6042
FY26Equity Gains: 8918

NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings release ↗

Published 2026-08-26 · Report Q2 ended2026-07-26; Q3 FY27 outlook

Quarter Revenue: 96221
Data Center Revenue Rounded: 89000

NVIDIA PORTS-Pike SB Energy announcement ↗

Published 2026-08-17 · Report August2026 subsequent event

Announced$1.5B SB Energy investment; 4.25 IT-GW initial site with capacity phased beginning2028. Q2 10-Q subsequently discloses$105B maximum SB Energy contingent guarantees; phase guarantees generally effective starting FY29, on specified defaults, NOT current cash outflow.

NVIDIA and Meta collaboration expansion ↗

Published 2026-10-26 · Report October2026

NVIDIA announced it will invest$3B in Meta equity offering and expand infrastructure collaboration. Not a realized revenue forecast.

NVIDIA sets Q3 results conference call ↗

Published 2026-10-28 · Report Q3FY27 ended2026-10-25

Q3FY27 results scheduled Nov17 2026 at about1:20p.m.PT; conference call2p.m.PT. Q3actuals not yet reported as of research.

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

AAPL Apple Inc

$348.91

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$89.53

BASE · USD / SHARE$165.89

BULL · USD / SHARE$269.29

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-110.3%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Apple is a mature device ecosystem with expanding Services revenue and an AI-enabled product cycle. Recent sales momentum supports a range of growth outcomes, but temporary tariff refunds and a premium starting market valuation make normalized cash generation the central issue.

bear · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.3% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $89.53 / share

Hypothesis: post-refresh demand normalizes, AI adoption does not generate sustained upgrades, and tariff/competitive pressure erodes margin. Revenue is flat in FY2027 then grows 2%; recurring net margin settles at 24.5%. CapEx remains 3% of revenue and debt is paid down by $40bn over six years. Cost of equity 10.5% is a stress assumption, not a measured CAPM result.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+118,750

Depreciation+12,350

Capital expenditure-14,250

Working capital-0

Net borrowing-8,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 45.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	118,750	12,350	14,250	0	-8,000	108,850
2028	120,156	12,597	14,535	285	-8,000	109,933
2029	121,077	12,849	14,826	291	-8,000	110,809
2030	123,498	13,106	15,122	297	-8,000	113,185
2031	125,968	13,368	15,425	302	-4,000	119,609
2032	128,487	13,635	15,733	308	-4,000	122,081
2033	131,057	13,908	16,048	315	0	128,602
2034	133,678	14,186	16,369	321	0	131,174
2035	136,352	14,470	16,696	327	0	133,799
2036	139,079	14,759	17,030	334	0	136,474

Base · Central case $165.89 / share

Hypothesis: Services growth and installed-base monetization support mid-single-digit sales growth while a maturing hardware base causes growth to fade to 3%. Normalized margins exclude extrapolation of the tariff-refund windfall and gradually rise from 27.5% to 28.5%. CapEx 2.8% of sales is above the nine-month 2026 ratio and roughly near FY2025 intensity. Debt declines $24bn before stable net refinancing. Cost of equity 9% and terminal growth 2.5% are explicit analyst scenarios, not management guidance.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+139,769

Depreciation+13,215

Capital expenditure-14,231

Working capital-665

Net borrowing-6,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 56.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	139,769	13,215	14,231	665	-6,000	132,088
2028	149,232	14,007	15,085	610	-6,000	141,544
2029	158,391	14,708	15,839	539	-6,000	150,721
2030	166,310	15,443	16,631	566	-6,000	158,556
2031	174,198	16,061	17,296	475	0	172,488
2032	181,166	16,703	17,988	494	0	179,387
2033	189,502	17,288	18,618	450	0	187,722
2034	196,134	17,893	19,269	465	0	194,293
2035	202,019	18,430	19,847	413	0	200,189
2036	208,079	18,983	20,443	425	0	206,194

Bull · Optimistic case $269.29 / share

Hypothesis: Siri AI and the new device cycle accelerate upgrades and Services attach, with operating leverage lifting recurring net margin to 31%. Growth still fades to 4%, then 3% perpetually. Investment remains 3% of revenue; efficient working capital limits incremental investment. Debt declines $12bn then is refinanced at stable nominal levels. Announced products establish availability, not evidence that these adoption or financial outcomes will occur.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+151,620

Depreciation+14,896

Capital expenditure-15,960

Working capital-570

Net borrowing-3,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.25% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 64.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	151,620	14,896	15,960	570	-3,000	146,986
2028	169,708	16,386	17,556	532	-3,000	165,006
2029	188,171	17,860	19,136	527	-3,000	183,368
2030	206,669	19,289	20,667	510	-3,000	201,781
2031	224,822	20,639	22,114	482	0	222,865
2032	242,218	21,878	23,440	442	0	240,214
2033	254,328	22,972	24,612	391	0	252,297
2034	267,045	24,120	25,843	410	0	264,912
2035	277,727	25,085	26,877	345	0	275,590
2036	288,836	26,088	27,952	358	0	286,614

Latest Report

The latest primary report located as of 2026-10-30 is FY2026 Q3, ended June 27. FY2026 full-year financial results are not treated as reported in this draft. Recheck the imminent annual earnings release before using this model.

Reported financial facts

Source
q3_10q
Period
nine months ended 2026-06-27
Revenue
364357
Net Income
101464
Cfo
116996
Da
9973
Capex
6799
Term Debt Repayments
8146
Commercial Paper Net Repayments
5911
Source
q3_10q
Period
Q3 ended 2026-06-27
Revenue
109417
Net Income
29789
Diluted Shares Millions
14714.676
Source
q3_release
Fact
June-quarter revenue increased 16%; company gross margin of 50.1% included about 2 percentage points from tariff refunds. That benefit is not extrapolated.
Source
fy25_release
Period
FY2025
Revenue
416161
Source
q3_10q
Period
nine months ended 2025-06-28
Revenue
313695

Derived Facts

Description
Trailing twelve-month revenue = FY2025 revenue minus prior nine months plus current nine months
Value
466823
Formula
416161 - 313695 + 364357
Unit
USD millions

AI forecast assumptions

Fy2026Revenue Anchor: 475000
Anchor Explanation: Hypothetical FY2026 sales anchor; close to the verified $466.823bn TTM sales level and implies $110.643bn September quarter revenue. It is neither management guidance nor reported FY2026 revenue. FY2027 begins from this anchor; exact residual FY2026 stub is omitted.
Margin: Recurring NI margin includes cash interest/taxes and ongoing ordinary investment income. Temporary tariff-refund benefits are not assumed permanent. All forecast revenues, margins and cash-flow components are AI scenario assumptions.
Working Capital: changeWC is incremental noncash operating working-capital investment, computed as 3%/2%/1% of annual revenue increase in bear/base/bull. It is not total working capital or a second subtraction from CFO.
Financing: Net borrowing includes debt issuance less principal repayments; explicit debt-paydown schedules total $40bn/$24bn/$12bn then zero net borrowing at stable nominal debt. These are hypothetical financing policies, not guidance. Dividends and repurchases are not FCFE expenses.
Sbc: NI retains stock-compensation expense. otherAdjustments=0 deliberately avoids an unoffset SBC addback. Fixed diluted shares and no buyback gains are conservative approximations; withholding and option value require review.
Cash Convention: No net-cash/debt bridge or separate cash investment addition. Forecast recurring NI retains ordinary investment income; adding investment assets again could double count. Unmodeled future cash release is a limitation.
Discount Rates: 8.25%/9%/10.5% are scenario risk assumptions. No fresh risk-free/beta/equity-risk-premium calibration was obtained; do not describe them as empirical cost-of-equity estimates.

Current Insights

Source
siri_launch
Fact
Apple announced Siri AI availability in September; announced capability does not establish customer uptake or incremental revenue.
Valuation Interpretation
Supports upside scenario optionality, not an automatic upward target-price revision.
Source
oct_archive
Fact
October archive lists new Mac/iPad/Siri-related releases.
Valuation Interpretation
New releases may support the coming device cycle, but sales conversion and economics remain unreported.

Evidence against the thesis

Q3 gross margin contains a one-time tariff-refund tailwind; headline margin expansion can overstate normalized profitability.
AI launch claims and new product availability are not verified demand, unit-sales or margin evidence.
Services mix can support profitability but regulatory restrictions and platform competition could erode monetization.
Debt reduction, capex and working-capital requirements may be higher than the scenarios.

Limitations

Company-specific unreviewed draft, not an approved target or investment recommendation.
Annual report/next earnings update is imminent; initial data only through June 27, 2026.
No exact valuation-date stub or detailed forward share/options/buyback schedule.
Discount rates are scenario assumptions, not freshly calibrated CAPM.
Other noncash operating adjustments are set to zero; historical CFO reconciliation contains additional items that require normalization.
Terminal profitability and investment ratios need further steady-state review; terminal value may dominate.

Confidence & limitations

low-to-medium on operating context; low on long-run forecasts and discount-rate calibration

Share count & valuation basis

14,714.676 million FY2026 Q3 diluted weighted-average shares, from SEC statement of operations (reported in thousands converted to millions). Held fixed; no forecast buyback benefit. SBC remains an expense in forecast NI and is not added back. This approximates economic SBC cost and diluted claims; exact forward share/options/withholding schedule is not modeled.

14714.676 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Apple fiscal Q3 2026 Form 10-Q ↗

· Report 2026-06-27

Apple reports third quarter results ↗

· Report 2026-06-27

Apple FY2025 consolidated financial statements ↗

· Report 2025-09-27

Siri AI launch announcement ↗

October 2026 Apple product announcements ↗

Apple investor relations latest report listing ↗

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

GOOGL Alphabet Inc

$283.82

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:00.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$59.58

BASE · USD / SHARE$178.20

BULL · USD / SHARE$437.08

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-59.3%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Alphabet combines Search advertising cash generation with an unusually large AI/Cloud investment cycle. This draft models that transition explicitly; it does not extrapolate current low free cash flow.

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 10.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $59.58 / share

Search monetization and AI competition constrain recurring net margin; compute and infrastructure needs remain high before investment intensity eases. Cloud demand does not translate rapidly into distributable cash. Terminal growth 2% and 11.5% required equity return are analyst stress assumptions, not observed market estimates.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+123,200

Depreciation+45,000

Capital expenditure-250,000

Working capital-15,000

Net borrowing+30,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 77.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	123,200	45,000	250,000	15,000	30,000	-66,800
2028	134,200	65,000	265,000	12,000	25,000	-52,800
2029	148,500	85,000	265,000	11,000	20,000	-22,500
2030	163,300	100,000	250,000	10,000	10,000	13,300
2031	178,600	110,000	235,000	10,000	0	43,600
2032	193,200	115,000	220,000	9,000	0	79,200
2033	202,800	118,000	210,000	8,000	0	102,800
2034	211,200	120,000	200,000	7,000	0	124,200
2035	218,400	122,000	190,000	6,000	0	144,400
2036	224,952	124,000	185,000	5,500	0	158,452

Base · Central case $178.20 / share

Cloud and TPU demand support growth, with consolidated revenue growth fading from approximately 18% versus the Q3 annualized run rate to 4% by 2036. Recurring net margin improves gradually as new capacity monetizes. CapEx remains above the present investment run rate initially, then normalizes over a decade rather than immediately. 10% cost of equity and 2.5% terminal growth are explicit valuation assumptions awaiting market calibration.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+150,000

Depreciation+50,000

Capital expenditure-240,000

Working capital-15,000

Net borrowing+30,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 70.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	150,000	50,000	240,000	15,000	30,000	-25,000
2028	175,950	75,000	255,000	15,000	25,000	5,950
2029	202,722	95,000	265,000	14,000	20,000	38,722
2030	229,349	112,000	265,000	13,000	10,000	73,349
2031	257,044	125,000	260,000	12,000	0	110,044
2032	282,748	135,000	250,000	11,000	0	156,748
2033	308,041	145,000	240,000	10,000	0	203,041
2034	326,524	152,000	232,000	9,000	0	237,524
2035	342,850	158,000	225,000	8,000	0	267,850
2036	356,564	164,000	220,000	7,500	0	293,064

Bull · Optimistic case $437.08 / share

AI infrastructure, TPU systems and consumer monetization sustain faster growth and operating leverage. Capacity converts to revenue before investment intensity normalizes; this is deliberately optimistic, not management guidance. Cost of equity 8.5% and terminal growth 3% magnify long-duration upside and require particular skepticism.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+179,200

Depreciation+55,000

Capital expenditure-230,000

Working capital-15,000

Net borrowing+25,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 73.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	179,200	55,000	230,000	15,000	25,000	14,200
2028	226,432	80,000	245,000	18,000	20,000	63,432
2029	278,746	105,000	260,000	20,000	15,000	118,746
2030	328,734	125,000	275,000	22,000	10,000	166,734
2031	377,559	145,000	285,000	23,000	0	214,559
2032	425,850	160,000	285,000	24,000	0	276,850
2033	471,544	175,000	280,000	25,000	0	341,544
2034	509,268	185,000	275,000	25,000	0	394,268
2035	539,824	195,000	270,000	25,000	0	439,824
2036	566,815	205,000	265,000	25,000	0	481,815

Reported financial facts

Source
q3_release
Fact
Q3 2026 revenue $127.577bn; operating income $40.576bn; net income available to common $26.170bn.
Source
q3_release
Fact
Q3 CFO $42.290bn and CapEx $51.355bn; 2026 nine-month CFO $127.149bn and CapEx $131.953bn.
Source
q3_10q
Fact
September 30 common shares outstanding total 12.294bn across Class A, B and C; purchase commitments $924.4bn, including $213.4bn due within 12 months.
Source
ceo_remarks
Fact
Management reported Cloud growth of 103% and substantial AI/TPU demand; this is management commentary, not a validated long-term growth forecast.

Forecast Basis

The Q3 annualized revenue reference is $510.308bn, a run rate rather than FY2026 actual revenue. All FY2027–2036 revenues, margins, D&A, CapEx, working capital and borrowing are hypothetical company-specific analyst assumptions. NI_common is recurring after cash interest/taxes/preferred dividends and retains SBC as an expense; no SBC addback. Investment fair-value gains/losses are not extrapolated. Stable shares approximate treating ongoing SBC as an economic expense rather than ignoring its cost.

Key value drivers

Speed of AI/Cloud revenue conversion relative to cash infrastructure spending
Search monetization and competitive effects on recurring profitability
Length of high CapEx period and growth in depreciation
Debt issuance funding versus later self-financing

Limitations

No recommendation or approved target price; primary figures verified but forecasts remain hypotheses.
No exact FY2026 stub or preferred conversion/options schedule. Reported weighted diluted shares are an approximation.
No explicit nonoperating-asset addition. Recurring NI margin implicitly includes ordinary investment income; unrealized equity gains are excluded. Nonmarketable holdings may therefore be inadequately valued.
Acquisitions beyond forecast CapEx, extraordinary legal payments and lease-funding details need a separate schedule.
Cost of equity rates are assumptions, not a sourced CAPM calibration.
The terminal perpetuity follows 2036 FCFE; terminal financing and reinvestment need independent review.

Share count & valuation basis

12,368 million diluted weighted-average common shares, all Alphabet common classes, Q3 2026 earnings release. Frozen approximation; not a point-in-time fully diluted capitalization. Future preferred conversion and equity issuance require explicit follow-up.

12368 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings release ↗

Alphabet Form 10-Q, period ended September 30, 2026 ↗

Q3 2026 earnings call: CEO remarks ↗

Company news

Regular close monitor · 2026-10-29T20:00:00Z

GOOGL daily close change -12.64%

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

MSFT Microsoft Corporation

$530.14

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$24.70

BASE · USD / SHARE$180.29

BULL · USD / SHARE$428.65

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-194.0%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

Model assumption needs revision

Existing model notes admit procurement prepayments may overlap later PP&E; reconcile asset/prepayment/D&A rollforward, lease payments and excluded investment assets before asserting total fair value.

Keep this scenario estimate separate from a conclusion that the stock is overvalued.

The research behind the number

微軟的核心是 Azure 容量與 M365/Copilot 商業化能否把快速成長轉成股東現金。最新季度成長強，但現金 PP&E、元件採購預付、租賃本金及折舊也迅速增加。本草稿分別推估 Azure、M365 cloud 與其他業務，並保留早年負 FCFE 的可能性；不是用單一通用成長率外推。

bear · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $24.70 / share

AI hypothesis: Azure demand growth fades quickly as customer economics and funding weaken; M365 monetization slows and Windows weakness persists. Depreciation and lease costs compress net margins. Cash infrastructure procurement remains sticky despite weaker revenue, before a gradual investment reset. No new debt issuance is assumed; cash deficits are a stress on reserves and future funding, not a claim about an announced plan.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+128,100

Depreciation+52,000

Capital expenditure-185,000

Working capital-683

Net borrowing-14,250

Other adjustments-43,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 140.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	128,100	52,000	185,000	683	-14,250	-43,000	-62,833
2028	131,479	65,000	200,000	648	-8,000	-44,000	-56,169
2029	136,216	78,000	210,000	680	-12,988	-41,000	-50,452
2030	139,533	90,000	210,000	654	-14,000	-38,000	-33,121
2031	149,008	100,000	205,000	632	-17,500	-34,500	-8,624
2032	157,450	110,000	200,000	563	-20,000	-31,500	15,387
2033	167,996	118,000	200,000	519	-22,000	-29,500	33,977
2034	178,453	125,000	200,000	497	-24,000	-28,500	50,456
2035	185,417	132,000	205,000	449	-26,000	-27,500	58,468
2036	191,492	138,000	210,000	392	-28,000	-26,500	64,600

2027 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 10000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -5000; component procurement/other investing cash -45000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve -1000. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2028 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 8000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -5000; component procurement/other investing cash -45000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2029 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 5000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -4000; component procurement/other investing cash -40000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2030 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 2000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -35000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2031 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -2500; component procurement/other investing cash -30000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2032 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -2500; component procurement/other investing cash -27000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2033 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -2500; component procurement/other investing cash -25000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2034 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -2500; component procurement/other investing cash -24000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2035 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -2500; component procurement/other investing cash -23000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2036 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -2500; component procurement/other investing cash -22000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

Base · Central case $180.29 / share

AI hypothesis: Azure and Copilot adoption keep cloud growth above the rest of Microsoft, then fade as capacity and the base expand. M365 ARPU supports low-teens then mid-single-digit growth; the mature portfolio stabilizes. Net margins initially absorb depreciation/leased-capacity cost, then recover through utilization. Cash PP&E and component procurement stay elevated rather than assuming an immediate return to software-era capital intensity.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+142,450

Depreciation+52,000

Capital expenditure-175,000

Working capital+1,595

Net borrowing-14,250

Other adjustments-28,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 70.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	142,450	52,000	175,000	-1,595	-14,250	-28,000	-21,205
2028	161,086	65,000	190,000	-1,874	-7,000	-27,000	3,960
2029	179,843	80,000	200,000	-1,991	-10,988	-25,500	25,346
2030	200,050	95,000	210,000	-1,981	-11,000	-25,000	51,031
2031	225,384	110,000	220,000	-1,923	-13,500	-27,000	76,807
2032	250,312	122,000	230,000	-1,835	-15,000	-31,000	98,147
2033	273,602	135,000	240,000	-1,647	-17,000	-36,000	117,249
2034	296,194	146,000	250,000	-1,545	-18,000	-41,000	134,739
2035	317,443	154,000	260,000	-1,394	-19,000	-46,000	147,837
2036	333,940	163,000	270,000	-1,338	-20,000	-49,000	159,278

2027 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 14000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -4000; component procurement/other investing cash -35000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve -1000. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2028 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 14000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -4000; component procurement/other investing cash -35000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2029 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 12000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3500; component procurement/other investing cash -32000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2030 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 10000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -30000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2031 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 8000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -30000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2032 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 6000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -32000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2033 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 4000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -35000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2034 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 2000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -38000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2035 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -41000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2036 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -44000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -2000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

Bull · Optimistic case $428.65 / share

AI hypothesis: Foundry demand, premium M365 adoption and usage monetization sustain higher growth while hardware/software efficiency preserves margins. Infrastructure spending rises in dollars; only its share of revenue declines. Customer prepayments finance part of working capital. This is an execution scenario, not management's long-term forecast or a guaranteed monetization of RPO.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+157,170

Depreciation+54,000

Capital expenditure-175,000

Working capital+3,558

Net borrowing-14,250

Other adjustments-21,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 73.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	157,170	54,000	175,000	-3,558	-14,250	-21,000	4,478
2028	188,712	70,000	195,000	-4,358	-7,500	-21,000	39,570
2029	223,538	90,000	220,000	-4,905	-11,988	-24,000	62,455
2030	264,030	112,000	245,000	-5,328	-12,500	-28,000	95,858
2031	309,199	136,000	270,000	-5,415	-15,500	-33,500	131,614
2032	354,618	157,000	290,000	-5,308	-17,500	-39,500	169,926
2033	400,593	180,000	310,000	-5,244	-20,000	-47,000	208,837
2034	439,090	201,000	330,000	-4,873	-22,000	-54,000	238,963
2035	475,346	222,000	350,000	-4,589	-24,000	-63,000	264,935
2036	507,552	240,000	370,000	-4,077	-26,000	-72,000	283,629

2027 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 16000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -30000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve -1000. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2028 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 17000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -32000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2029 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 17000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -35000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2030 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 16000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3000; component procurement/other investing cash -38000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2031 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 14000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3500; component procurement/other investing cash -41000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2032 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 12000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -3500; component procurement/other investing cash -45000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2033 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 10000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -4000; component procurement/other investing cash -50000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2034 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 8000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -4000; component procurement/other investing cash -55000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2035 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 4000; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -4000; component procurement/other investing cash -60000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

2036 adjustment: AI cash bridge (USD millions): deferred/cash tax timing 0; noncurrent operating asset/liability cash movement -4000; component procurement/other investing cash -65000; recurring acquisitions/intangibles -3000; remaining OpenAI funding reserve 0. Procurement treated as incremental advance/other cash not already in PP&E; no SBC addback.

Status

Unreviewed company-specific calculated draft; numerical validation is not research approval.

Confidence & limitations

Reported financial facts: high for opened primary financial statements; some depreciation figures are reported rounded billions
Forecast: low
Discount Rates: low; scenario judgments, not calibrated contemporaneous CAPM

Fact Summary

Q1 2027

Source: q1_release
Period: 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30
Revenue: 92279
Net Income GAAP: 36629
Net Income Ex Open AIManagement Non GAAP: 36422
Diluted Shares: 7446
Azure Revenue: 33165
M365Cloud Revenue: 27778
Cfo: 58000
Cash PPE: 39367
Other Investing Cash Outflow: 12949
Debt Repaid: 4850
Cash Finance Lease Principal: 1000
Source For Lease: q1_10q
SBC: 3134
CFDepreciation Amortization And Other: 11744
Depreciation Rounded: 11100
Intangibles Amortization Rounded: 1000
Finance Lease Obligations: 70973
Uncommenced Lease Commitments: 364600
Open AIRevenue: 10000
Open AIReceivable: 7200
Openai Funding Commitment: 13000
Openai Funded: 12000

Historical Financials

Fiscal Year
2024
Source
fy26_annual
Currency
USD
Money Unit
millions
Ni Common
88136
Depreciation Amortization And Other CF
20958
Stock Compensation
10734
Investment Loss Gain Reconciliation
1634
Deferred Taxes
-4738
Change Noncash Current WC
-6205
Other Long Term Asset Cash Change
-6817
Income Tax Cash Change
1687
Other Long Term Liability Cash Change
749
Cfo
118548
Cfo Reconstructed
118548
Cash PPE
44477
Net Debt Cash Flow
575
Finance Lease Principal Paid
1286
Other Investing Cash Outflow
1298
Fiscal Year
2025
Source
fy26_annual
Currency
USD
Money Unit
millions
Ni Common
101832
Depreciation Amortization And Other CF
29433
Stock Compensation
11974
Investment Loss Gain Reconciliation
5329
Deferred Taxes
-7056
Change Noncash Current WC
1387
Other Long Term Asset Cash Change
-2950
Income Tax Cash Change
-38
Other Long Term Liability Cash Change
-975
Cfo
136162
Cfo Reconstructed
136162
Cash PPE
64551
Net Debt Cash Flow
-8962
Finance Lease Principal Paid
2283
Other Investing Cash Outflow
-2317
Fiscal Year
2026
Source
fy26_annual
Currency
USD
Money Unit
millions
Ni Common
133749
Depreciation Amortization And Other CF
38534
Stock Compensation
12405
Investment Loss Gain Reconciliation
-11047
Deferred Taxes
14189
Change Noncash Current WC
-5651
Other Long Term Asset Cash Change
-3964
Income Tax Cash Change
-1875
Other Long Term Liability Cash Change
-4707
Cfo
182935
Cfo Reconstructed
182935
Cash PPE
115948
Net Debt Cash Flow
-3000
Finance Lease Principal Paid
3101
Other Investing Cash Outflow
19861

Guidance

Source

q1_call

Published

2026-10-28

Classification

management_forward_looking_not_reported_results

Q2Revenue Range

96000
97100

Q2Azure Constant Currency Growth Range

0.49
0.5

Q2Capex Including Lease Commencements

>50000

Calendar2026Capex Approximately

170000

FY27H2Capex

management expects acceleration; quarterly capacity timing matters

FY27FCF

management expects CFO less cash PP&E positive; this is not the economically adjusted FCFE here

Forecast Derivation

Classification: explicit_AI_hypotheses_all_forecast_numbers
Revenue: FY27 assumed Azure/M365 cloud/other: bear 136000/114000/116000, base145000/118000/122000, bull155000/122000/126000. Annual sequences apply product-specific growth vectors recorded in model years. Anchored to Q1 actual product revenues, Q2 company guidance and current Windows weakness, not presented as management FY27 guidance. FY26 total331839 is used only for first incremental WC bridge.
Ni Common: forecast revenue times explicit netMargin, rounded to USD million; margins include ordinary cash tax, SBC, lease/borrowing interest, operating lease expense and DA. OpenAI equity-method/fair-value gains and losses excluded from recurring NI, not confused with actual cloud/customer revenue. No separate OpenAI stake asset value added.
Da: Explicit total DA investment-ramp schedules; Q1 depreciation11.1B and intangibles amortization1.0B are rounded disclosures; CFO 11.744B is depreciation/amortization AND OTHER, so it is not falsely labeled exact DA. Forecast DA includes finance-lease asset depreciation.
Capex: Positive cash PP&E outflow, not headline capex including noncash lease commencements. Base175B FY27 reflects Q1cash39.367B and guidance for acceleration; not a reported management annual cash PP&E target. Separate procurement reserve models other investing cash, preventing its omission from equity cash generation.
Change WC: Noncash current operating WC = AR+inventory+other current operating assets less AP/unearned revenue/other current operating liabilities, excluding cash, debt, income tax and PP&E payables. Forecast investment equals change in revenue times explicit coefficient: bear+2%,base-3%,bull-5%. Negative values represent subscription/customer-prepayment funding, not permanent Q1 receivable liquidation. Historical current CF row approximation may include PP&E payables; forecast excludes PP&E payables to avoid cash-capex double counting.
Net Borrowing: No new cash debt issuance assumed. FY27 debt cash repayment9250=actualQ1 4850+remaining disclosed4400; FY29 1988 and FY31 500 from debt maturity table. Future refinancing beyond FY31 holds nominal debt unchanged; this is an assumption. Cash finance-lease principal deducted in the same component; noncash lease inception is omitted from both cash capex and cash borrowing.
Other Adjustments: Exact signed components provided in each year: cash/deferred-tax timing; long-term operating cash items; procurement/other investing cash; acquisitions/intangibles; 1000 reserve FY27 for remaining OpenAI commitment. No automatic SBC or noncash gains addback. The procurement reserve represents net incremental cash advances excluding amounts already in PP&E; supplier settlement/reclassification rollforward unavailable, so forward values have low confidence.
Terminal: Last explicit year2036 has positive FCFE, perpetuity g2/2.5/3% below Ke11/9.5/8.5%. Terminal CF continues the final component mix; not a perpetual customer advance or a claim that capex disappears.
Forecast timing: FY2027 includes reported Q1 plus hypothetical remainder. App applies one year-end discount period to each full fiscal year, despite FY27 endingJune30 2027; no stub-period adjustment. This standard annual approximation conservatively discounts FY27 beyond its actual cash timing; it also includes a reported quarter already elapsed. No precise valuation-date claim is made.

Discount Rate Rationale

Ke11%/9.5%/8.5% are explicit sensitivity judgments reflecting capital intensity, customer/funding concentration, competitive and execution risk. No verified current risk-free rate/beta/ERP calibration was performed, so do not interpret rates as measured market cost of equity.

Evidence against the thesis

Cloud48% Azure growth and rising RPO support demand, but do not establish cash returns on every capacity commitment.
Q1 receivable collection is seasonal; annualizing CFO or the working-capital release overstates cash.
Management expects FY27 FCF positive while this draft may show negative economic FCFE after procurement, retained SBC expense and financing principal; definitions differ.
Nonexclusive OpenAI rights and revenue-share cap/2030 duration limit extrapolation; cloud/customer revenue is retained in forecast but investment gains are excluded.
364.6B uncommenced leases include conditional contracts and mixed operating/finance structures. Precise commencement schedule, split, and incremental interest/expense have not been independently scheduled.

Limitations

未完成逐項資產折舊與租賃開始時間表；NI、DA及租賃本金是明確假設，需人工覆核。
採購預付與後續PP&E轉列存在重複計算風險；以淨額假設及獨立保留項揭露，不能當已審核估值。
Fixed current diluted shares and retaining SBC expense approximate dilution economics; exact share repurchases/options not modeled.
No excess-cash or OpenAI-investment asset add-on; no debt subtraction after FCFE discounting.
Historical CFO mapping is a cash-flow audit bridge, not a reported FCFE statistic.
Bear scenario has negative early FCFE; terminal PV exceeds total equity value (about140%). This is an especially fragile stress scenario, not a price target.

Comparison Eligibility

Initial unreviewed company-specific draft; no generic-proxy comparison or defensible-model discount signal.

Source Mapping

Q1Income Cash Flow Products Shares: q1_release and q1_10q
Q1Leases Open AIRelated Party Funding: q1_10q Notes3,12
Historical2024to2026: fy26_annual financial statements; fy26_10k opened
Management Outlook: q1_call
Open AITerms: openai_terms

Queued Filing Assessment

Accession

0001193125-26-436149

Source

oct28_recast_8k

Exhibit Source

oct28_recast_exhibit

Status

researched_covered

Event

FY2024–2026 historical segment recast into Agents and Infra, Devices and Consumer; not a consolidated financial statement restatement.

Numerical Impact

No change to draft consolidated NI/CFO/cash capex inputs. Recast exhibit corroborates2026 revenue331839, NI133749, CFO182935 and product anchors; explicitly supplies FY2026 Azure101938/M365cloud100299. Forecast product definitions align with FY2027 structure.

Reported Product Anchors USDmillions

FY2026

Azure: 101938
M365Cloud: 100299
Other Derived: 129602

FY2025

Azure: 72610
M365Cloud: 84605
Other Derived: 124509

FY2024

Azure: 54070
M365Cloud: 73457
Other Derived: 117595

Coverage Decision

The exact queued8-K and its exhibit were opened/read; supported by this persisted research note and source URLs. Can complete the coalesced sec-initialjob if this updated envelope is stored.

Run Id

20261030T0400Z

Arithmetic Validation

Valid: true
Calculator Version: 1.0.0

Research Approved

false

Share count & valuation basis

7,446 million diluted weighted-average shares in FY2027 Q1, fixed throughout; no buyback-driven per-share accretion. SBC remains an expense in forecast common NI and is not added back, approximating ongoing compensation/dilution cost. Existing awards captured only through current diluted denominator; future exercise, grant/forfeiture and withholding schedules are not separately forecast.

7446 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Microsoft FY2026 Form 10-K ↗

· Report 2026-06-30

Microsoft 2026 Annual Report, financial review and notes ↗

· Report 2026-06-30

Microsoft FY2027 Q1 Form 10-Q ↗

· Report 2026-09-30

Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings release ↗

· Report 2026-09-30

Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call, official transcript ↗

· Report 2026-09-30

Microsoft-OpenAI amended partnership announcement ↗

Microsoft October28 Form8-K segment recast ↗

· Report 2026-10-28

Microsoft FY2024–2026 segment recast exhibit99.1 ↗

· Report 2026-06-30

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

AMZN Amazon.com Inc.

$243.79

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$37.66

BASE · USD / SHARE$129.88

BULL · USD / SHARE$307.41

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-87.7%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

Model assumption needs revision

Model explicitly excludes investment portfolio NAV; operating forecast must not be presented as complete sum-of-parts without tax/illiquidity and income double-count checks.

Keep this scenario estimate separate from a conclusion that the stock is overvalued.

The research behind the number

Amazon 的核心變數是 AWS 快速成長能否轉為股東可分配現金，而非只看 GAAP 盈餘。最新 Q3 財報顯示雲端成長和營業利益改善，但 AI 資本支出讓公司公布的過去十二個月自由現金流轉負。本草稿以 AWS／非 AWS 營業額及利潤率逐年推估常態 NI，再逐項扣除投資、營運資金與償債。三情境仍未獲研究審核，不作低估或目標價警報依據。

bear · Equity cost 12.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 3.0%bull · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 3.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $37.66 / share

AI hypothesis: AWS misses management’s >40% 2027/28 growth expectation, falling to 25%/20%, while infrastructure remains costly and competition reduces AWS margin to 30%. Retail/advertising grows slowly with 6% operating margin; financing is available but expensive. Capex retrenches gradually rather than disappearing when revenue slows.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+79,731.1

Depreciation+85,000

Capital expenditure-286,000

Working capital-21,718.7

Net borrowing+173,100

Other adjustments-13,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 12.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 75.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	79,731.07	85,000	286,000	21,718.74	173,100	-13,000	17,112.33
2028	84,651.25	115,000	296,500	21,646.79	103,000	-10,500	-25,995.54
2029	91,120.66	145,000	282,000	21,202.84	62,500	-7,000	-11,582.18
2030	98,585.45	165,000	267,500	20,427.91	2,000	-4,500	-26,842.46
2031	105,759.21	185,000	258,000	19,344.26	-3,700	-3,000	6,714.95
2032	115,507.65	200,000	258,000	17,933.21	-9,700	-3,000	26,874.44
2033	124,008.38	215,000	258,000	16,189.46	-10,200	-2,500	52,118.92
2034	131,941.29	230,000	263,000	14,165.78	-10,700	-2,500	71,575.51
2035	138,343.14	240,000	268,000	13,259.17	-5,700	-2,000	89,383.97
2036	143,036.29	250,000	273,000	12,139.51	-700	-2,000	105,196.78

2027 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 10000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 3000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2028 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 8000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 2500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2029 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 5000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 2000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2030 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2031 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2032 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2033 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2034 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2035 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 0 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2036 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 0 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

Base · Central case $129.88 / share

AI hypothesis: AWS grows 40% in each of 2027/28, close to but slightly below management’s >40% aspiration, then slows with scale. AWS margin falls from Q3’s approximately 38.7% to 35% as depreciation and power costs rise; retail/advertising operating leverage lifts the combined non-AWS margin toward 8.5%. Heavy AI capacity spending remains above the $220bn FY2026 guidance for all forecast years, with cash conversion improving only gradually.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+102,961.5

Depreciation+90,000

Capital expenditure-286,000

Working capital-17,124.7

Net borrowing+93,100

Other adjustments-8,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 77.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	102,961.49	90,000	286,000	17,124.74	93,100	-8,000	-25,063.25
2028	133,352.71	125,000	316,500	18,838.12	73,000	-8,000	-11,985.41
2029	160,175.43	155,000	327,000	20,108.01	32,500	-4,500	-3,932.58
2030	184,569.65	180,000	332,500	21,153.16	-8,000	-3,000	-83.51
2031	216,433.06	200,000	338,000	22,063.26	-13,700	-3,000	39,669.8
2032	247,659.12	220,000	348,000	22,694.56	-14,700	-2,500	79,764.56
2033	277,761.79	235,000	358,000	22,969.43	-10,200	-2,500	119,092.36
2034	306,873.24	250,000	368,000	22,916.68	-10,700	-2,000	153,256.56
2035	331,824.41	265,000	378,000	22,380.15	-5,700	-2,000	188,744.26
2036	352,311.37	280,000	388,000	21,350.66	-700	-2,000	220,260.71

2027 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 6000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 2000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2028 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 6000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 2000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2029 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2030 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2032 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2034 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 2000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 0 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

Bull · Optimistic case $307.41 / share

AI hypothesis: large model customers use contracted capacity rapidly, AWS grows 45% in 2027/28 and sustains 40% operating margin through custom silicon/inference efficiencies. Advertising and logistics automation lift non-AWS margin to 10%. This outcome requires much larger capex and depreciation, not capital-free cloud growth; competition, customer financing and power constraints are contrary evidence.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+115,797.3

Depreciation+95,000

Capital expenditure-307,000

Working capital-14,599.9

Net borrowing+84,000

Other adjustments-5,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 3.50% · Terminal value 82.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	115,797.27	95,000	307,000	14,599.89	84,000	-5,500	-32,302.62
2028	157,066.5	135,000	358,000	16,268.12	74,000	-5,500	-13,701.62
2029	204,227.17	175,000	399,000	17,744.82	33,500	-4,000	-8,017.65
2030	257,198.86	215,000	430,000	19,018.89	-7,000	-4,000	12,179.97
2031	311,215.07	250,000	451,000	19,835.8	-12,700	-3,500	74,179.27
2032	362,025.33	280,000	472,000	20,272.98	-13,200	-3,500	133,052.35
2033	412,978.87	310,000	492,000	20,298.45	-9,700	-3,000	197,980.42
2034	460,084.96	335,000	512,000	19,739.14	-10,700	-3,000	249,645.82
2035	504,580.83	360,000	532,000	21,411.9	-5,700	-3,000	302,468.93
2036	543,649.61	385,000	552,000	22,910.03	-700	-3,000	350,039.58

2027 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 4000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2028 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 4000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2029 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2030 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 1000 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2031 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2032 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 500 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2033 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 0 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2034 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 0 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2035 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 0 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

2036 adjustment: AI hypothesis: cash strategic investments/acquisitions reserve 3000 plus incremental capitalized-content cash investment above content expense 0 (USD millions). Neither is a reported commitment schedule. Excludes expensed Leo/Zoox/R&D already in operating margins; no duplicate deduction.

Confidence & limitations

low overall forecast confidence; primary reported figures high confidence; Q3 detailed footnotes, portfolio claims and rate calibration require review

Availability

Read FY2025 10-K, H1 2026 10-Q and latest Q3 earnings release/8-K. Q3 10-Q not verified available as of 2026-10-30 04:00 UTC; forecast not held out as full Q3 footnote reconciliation.

Fact Guidance Hypothesis Separation

Reported numbers are isolated in sources. October 29 guidance is not an actual result. All 2027–2036 values and rates are explicit AI hypotheses; base growth uses management’s cloud outlook as one input, not a guarantee.

Historical Reconciliation

Formula: 113587+59882+15476−68319+35522−42307=113841
All Operating Asset Liability Cash Change: -42307
Core Noncash Wc Cash Investment Excluding Other Assets: 29142
Cfo Bridge: 113841
Cash PPENet: 172188
Cash Debt Net: 113425
Lease And Financing Principal: 1577
Definition: Historical CFO includes broad other-assets, lease/content adjustments, SBC and taxes. It is reconciled exactly but is not labeled pure industrial NWC or used directly as recurring FCFE. Positive forecast changeWC means investment; reported CFO cash-change signs are reversed for an investment convention.

Forecast Derivation

Base2026Bridge: 9M reported revenue 584069 + Q4 guidance midpoint 243500 = 827569 hypothetical FY2026 sales. AWS FY2026 180000 and non-AWS 647569 are AI allocations, not segment guidance. Annual scenario drivers start from this common bridge.
Ni: Each annual row preserves segment revenues and margins, net interest and 23% effective tax; NI excludes future investment fair-value gains and energy remeasurement gains. Forecast margins include SBC, operating rent and content expense.
Da: Only PP&E D&A is added back. The 2025 $41860m and H1 2026 $26703m PP&E figures anchor a step-up as the 2025/26 capex ramp enters service. Do not add the release’s combined DA line, which also contains content and operating-lease asset amortization, to these forecasts.
Capex: Cash PP&E net investment is an explicit dollar path; finance-lease additions are added to capex and simultaneously to borrowing so noncash funding cancels once. Cash principal repayments remain financing outflows. Cash capex paths include settlement of prior unpaid equipment; do not separately deduct September’s unpaid-PP&E increase.
Working Capital: Forecast changeWC = revenue × displayed positive annual cash-investment rate, fading with payment/receivable normalization; it excludes cash, debt, lease liabilities, capex payables, content and investment-portfolio funding. This is a cash-conversion scenario, not a claim that reported balance-sheet NWC equals that rate.
Financing: Cash borrowing/debt repayment paths are scenarios, not management guidance or contractual maturities. Substantial new cash debt is required during the first three forecast years (bear 330bn/base190bn/bull180bn net) and interest expense is raised with this funding. Lease additions/principal and financing-obligation principal are explicit; interest already reduces NI. No equity issuance is assumed and no debt is subtracted after discounting FCFE. A hypothetical 80bn initial usable liquidity buffer is checked against cumulative FCFE with no distributions while cash flow is negative; actual restricted cash, credit capacity and debt maturities require review. Inability to raise this debt would require reduced investment or share dilution and invalidates this fixed-share forecast.
Other: Other adjustments separately deduct hypothetical strategic-investment cash and content investment above content expense. Existing investment fair-value gains, future exits, dividends and any portfolio NAV addition are excluded. This conservative operating-equity draft is not a full sum-of-parts valuation.

Rate Rationale

Cost of equity bear/base/bull 12.5%/10.5%/9.0% and terminal growth 2.0%/3.0%/3.5% are explicit judgment ranges reflecting cash burn, financing/customer concentration and competition. These are not current market-implied CAPM estimates; no unverified risk-free rate, beta or equity-risk-premium is presented as a measured fact.

Evidence against the thesis

AWS margin and growth in latest Q3 support upside, while very high cash capex and investment funding weaken present equity cash flow.
Management’s >40% 2027/28 cloud outlook can fail; contracts may depend on customer financing, utilization, chip performance and energy availability.
Cash taxes and investment gains make reported NI/CFO volatile; retaining SBC as an expense materially reduces economic equity cash flow versus company FCF.
Q3 full footnotes and updated strategic-investment commitments were not verified; current portfolio net asset value is omitted, creating potential material downside bias versus total equity value.
Cash capex may remain higher or decline later than modeled; rapid hardware obsolescence can reduce useful lives and earnings.

Limitations

Calculated draft only, not research approval or an investment recommendation.
Year-end discount periods start with 2027 as t=1; no fractional-year or remaining-Q4-2026 bridge is separately valued.
Fixed existing diluted claims plus SBC-expense treatment approximates future dilution; no grant vesting/repurchase schedule.
No independent CAPM calibration, full debt-maturity roll-forward, cash-tax forecast or Q3 footnote reconciliation.
Existing Anthropic/OpenAI and other investment value plus cash/excluded asset claims require separate review; no automatic cash/debt bridge.
Large terminal contribution makes the result highly sensitive to rates, reinvestment and sustained margins.

Prior Model Comparison

Initial company-specific baseline; do not compare against legacy stocks.low/base/high generic proxies or issue a normal valuation-change percentage.

Financing Liquidity Check

Scenario
bear
Initial Usable Liquidity Hypothesis
80000
Min Buffer
32692.15
Annual
- Year
  2027
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  97112.33
- Year
  2028
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  71116.79
- Year
  2029
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  59534.61
- Year
  2030
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  32692.15
- Year
  2031
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  39407.1
- Year
  2032
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  66281.54
- Year
  2033
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  118400.46
- Year
  2034
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  189975.97
- Year
  2035
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  279359.94
- Year
  2036
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  384556.72
Qualification
AI funding stress check; not a reported balance or approved credit facility. Borrowing availability is a material assumption.
Scenario
base
Initial Usable Liquidity Hypothesis
80000
Min Buffer
38935.25
Annual
- Year
  2027
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  54936.75
- Year
  2028
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  42951.34
- Year
  2029
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  39018.76
- Year
  2030
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  38935.25
- Year
  2031
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  78605.05
- Year
  2032
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  158369.61
- Year
  2033
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  277461.97
- Year
  2034
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  430718.53
- Year
  2035
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  619462.79
- Year
  2036
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  839723.5
Qualification
AI funding stress check; not a reported balance or approved credit facility. Borrowing availability is a material assumption.
Scenario
bull
Initial Usable Liquidity Hypothesis
80000
Min Buffer
25978.11
Annual
- Year
  2027
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  47697.38
- Year
  2028
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  33995.76
- Year
  2029
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  25978.11
- Year
  2030
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  38158.08
- Year
  2031
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  112337.35
- Year
  2032
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  245389.7
- Year
  2033
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  443370.12
- Year
  2034
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  693015.94
- Year
  2035
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  995484.87
- Year
  2036
  Ending Buffer No Distributions
  1345524.45
Qualification
AI funding stress check; not a reported balance or approved credit facility. Borrowing availability is a material assumption.

Run Id

20261030T0400Z

Arithmetic Validation

Valid: true
Calculator Version: 1.0.0

Research Approved

false

Comparison Eligibility

Initial unreviewed company-specific draft; no generic-proxy comparison or defensible-model discount signal.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed 11,034 million existing common shares plus outstanding stock awards at 2026-09-30 (10,811+223); exceeds Q3 diluted weighted average 10,929m. This is a conservative fixed diluted-claims approximation, not a future vesting/repurchase forecast. Ongoing SBC remains an economic expense in forecast NI and is not added back, approximating cash replacement/offsetting future grants; no buyback benefit is assumed. Actual dilution and tax-withholding shares need a full future claims schedule.

11034 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

official earnings release ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-09-30

official annual report ↗

Published 2026-02-06 · Report 2025-12-31

official quarterly report ↗

Published 2026-07-31 · Report 2026-06-30

official 8-K ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-10-29

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

AVGO Broadcom Inc

$345.00

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$101.76

BASE · USD / SHARE$313.50

BULL · USD / SHARE$713.88

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-10.0%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Broadcom combines rapidly growing AI custom silicon/networking with recurring infrastructure software. The forecast models that growth and its cash conversion directly, including working-capital and debt repayment needs.

bear · Equity cost 12.0% · Terminal 2.5%base · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 3.0%bull · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 3.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $101.76 / share

AI accelerator adoption slows after a large ramp; customer concentration and financing guarantees weaken conversion. GAAP-like net margins fade to 34%, reinvestment rises, and contingent support is explicitly stressed. The support losses are hypothetical, not reported liabilities or a quantified company forecast.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+47,520

Depreciation+8,500

Capital expenditure-4,620

Working capital-3,133

Net borrowing-10,000

Other adjustments-3,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 12.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 43.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	47,520	8,500	4,620	3,133	-10,000	-3,000	35,267
2028	50,750	8,000	5,075	1,560	-7,000	-3,000	42,115
2029	51,680	7,500	5,320	840	-5,000	-1,000	47,020
2030	54,060	7,000	5,565	840	-3,000	0	51,655
2031	56,100	6,500	5,775	720	-1,000	0	55,105
2032	58,140	6,000	5,985	720	0	0	57,435
2033	59,840	5,600	6,160	600	0	0	58,680
2034	61,540	5,300	6,335	600	0	0	59,905
2035	63,240	5,100	6,510	600	0	0	61,230
2036	64,940	5,000	6,685	600	0	0	62,655

2027 adjustment: Hypothetical cash loss from residual-value/AI financing support; stress assumption, not a reported charge or legal valuation.

2028 adjustment: Hypothetical cash loss from residual-value/AI financing support; stress assumption, not a reported charge or legal valuation.

2029 adjustment: Hypothetical cash loss from residual-value/AI financing support; stress assumption, not a reported charge or legal valuation.

Base · Central case $313.50 / share

Custom AI accelerators/networking and recurring software sustain strong growth, but the model fades growth substantially over ten years. Hardware/memory mix pressure offsets operating leverage. Revenue path, margins, working capital and debt repayments are analyst hypotheses, not management guidance; residual-value support is assumed not to crystallize in the base case.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+69,300

Depreciation+8,800

Capital expenditure-4,620

Working capital-5,320

Net borrowing-8,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 53.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	69,300	8,800	4,620	5,320	-8,000	60,160
2028	94,600	8,500	6,160	4,950	-5,000	86,990
2029	113,950	8,000	7,420	4,050	-3,000	107,480
2030	126,000	7,500	8,400	3,150	-2,000	119,950
2031	138,600	7,000	9,240	2,700	0	133,660
2032	149,100	6,500	9,940	2,250	0	143,410
2033	154,570	6,000	10,556	1,980	0	148,034
2034	162,770	5,800	11,116	1,800	0	155,654
2035	166,000	5,600	11,620	1,620	0	158,360
2036	172,800	5,500	12,096	1,530	0	164,674

Bull · Optimistic case $713.88 / share

Large AI deployments convert rapidly to accelerator/networking revenue while software preserves cash margins. Strong scale supports margins but growth fades to mid-single digits by FY2036. This aggressive upside is uncertain and is not a probability-weighted fair value.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+88,000

Depreciation+9,000

Capital expenditure-5,000

Working capital-6,588

Net borrowing-6,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 3.50% · Terminal value 62.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	88,000	9,000	5,000	6,588	-6,000	79,412
2028	138,000	9,000	7,500	7,000	-4,000	128,500
2029	183,300	8,500	9,750	6,300	-2,000	173,750
2030	220,900	8,000	11,750	5,600	0	211,550
2031	248,400	7,500	13,500	4,900	0	237,500
2032	276,000	7,000	15,000	4,200	0	263,800
2033	292,500	6,500	16,250	3,500	0	279,250
2034	310,500	6,200	17,250	2,800	0	296,650
2035	319,000	6,000	18,125	2,450	0	304,425
2036	332,200	5,900	18,875	2,100	0	317,125

Reported financial facts

Source
q3_2026
Text
Q3 revenue 29,591; GAAP net income 13,088; CFO 14,197; CapEx 532; D&A components 2,042 amortization and 171 depreciation; all USD millions.
Source
q3_2026
Text
Q3 diluted shares: GAAP 4,887m; non-GAAP claims approximation 4,937m. Q3 debt payments were 5,628m.
Source
fy2025
Text
FY2025 revenue 63,887m and reported FCF 26,914m provide historical context.

Management guidance

Source
q3_2026
Text
Q4 FY2026 revenue approximately 34,800m and non-GAAP operating margin approximately 66%; this is guidance, not actual revenue or GAAP net income.

Material News

Source
ai_financing
Text
October 26 financing announcement describes a $63bn SPV supporting AI capacity with deliveries expected from calendar 2027 and Broadcom residual-value support equivalent to first-lien financing. It is not booked here as $63bn of Broadcom debt or guaranteed incremental sales.

Hypotheses

Revenue Anchor: FY2026 reference revenue 105,889m = nine-month actual 71,089m plus Q4 guidance 34,800m. This is an AI construction, not reported FY2026 revenue.
Growth: Scenario revenue paths reflect possible AI hardware deployment adoption and a gradual fade. No third-party consensus estimates are treated as facts.
Margins: Scenario NI margins remain below or around recent GAAP conversion and include interest, taxes and SBC expense. Non-GAAP operating margin is not substituted for NI.
Reinvestment: CapEx is 3.5/2.8/2.5% of revenue; incremental noncash working capital is 12/9/7% of incremental sales for bear/base/bull. These are hypotheses, not disclosed policy.
Financing: Explicit net debt repayments fade to zero; no equity financing or new buybacks are assumed. Base debt payments fall over time, which may understate support exposure or acquisitions.
Discount Rates: 12/10.5/9.5% subjective equity hurdle rates, not an observed market-calibrated CAPM estimate. Terminal growth 2.5/3/3.5% is hypothetical; terminal capital structure assumed stable.

Evidence against the thesis

Very rapid AI sales growth can include lower-margin memory content and concentrated customer demand.
Residual-value support can make capital-light accounting overstate economic risk.
Software renewals and pricing may not sustain current growth/margins.
New acquisitions, contract financing, changing tax mix and equity claims can materially alter cash available to common equity.

Limitations

Calculated draft, not research approval or investment recommendation.
End-FY2026 valuation convention approximates the near-term stub and does not add an exact as-of-date bridge.
D&A includes acquired-intangible amortization; ongoing acquisition replacement spending is not explicitly modeled.
No separate excess cash/nonoperating holdings value is added; recurring investment income is assumed within net income.
A fixed diluted-claims denominator cannot capture all future SBC, options, buybacks or issuance.
Terminal steady-state reinvestment economics and market-calibrated cost of equity need further review.

Confidence & limitations

low; source facts checked, all forward components are explicit AI scenario hypotheses

Share count & valuation basis

Uses Q3 2026 non-GAAP diluted weighted-average shares of 4,937 million as a conservative existing-claims approximation versus GAAP 4,887 million. Fixed share count: ongoing SBC is retained as an economic expense and not added back; buybacks are not assumed to create extra FCFE. Exact options/SBC and future dilution still need a claims schedule.

4937 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

reported results and management guidance ↗

historical reported results ↗

material company announcement ↗

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:13:00 +0000

Semiconductor Sell-Off: The 1 AI Chip Stock I'd Buy and 1 I'd Avoid

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:18:00 +0000

Prediction: This Will Be Broadcom's Stock Price by the End of 2027

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:20:12 +0000

Arista Networks (ANET) vs. CSCO and AVGO: Is AI Data Center Expansion Creating a Long-Term Networking Winner?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:03:13 +0000

Prediction: Wall Street’s Next AI Favorite May Not Be Nvidia

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 16:50:00 +0000

3 AI Stocks to Buy and Hold Through 2030

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 16:15:18 +0000

Why Is Broadcom (AVGO) Now Central To AI Funding And Infrastructure?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

TSLA Tesla Inc

$403.30

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:00.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE-$1.56

BASE · USD / SHARE$16.39

BULL · USD / SHARE$45.26

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-2360.5%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Tesla 的現金價值取決於汽車/服務盈利、儲能擴張，以及自駕與機器人投資何時轉成可分配現金。三情境逐年建模重資本投資和融資；沒有把 Robotaxi 故事直接當作已實現利潤。這是低信心 AI FCFE 情境估計。

bear · Equity cost 14.0% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 12.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case -$1.56 / share

AI downside hypothesis: vehicle price competition and weak regulatory-credit support limit common earnings; storage growth fails to offset autonomy/robotics R&D. Net income grows only from $3.0bn to $4.5bn; capex is cut from $22bn to $12bn as management slows projects. Depreciation rises from prior buildout; working capital remains a modest cash use. Borrowing funds initial cash deficits, then deleveraging begins. No large autonomous software or robotics profit pool is assumed. Nominal equity cost 14% and g2% are explicit risk scenarios, not sourced current market rates.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+3,000

Depreciation+8,500

Capital expenditure-22,000

Working capital-1,000

Net borrowing+3,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 14.00% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value -100.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	3,000	8,500	22,000	1,000	3,000	-8,500
2028	3,500	9,000	19,000	750	2,000	-5,250
2029	4,000	9,500	16,000	500	0	-3,000
2030	4,250	10,000	14,000	500	-500	-750
2031	4,500	10,500	12,000	500	-1,000	1,500

Base · Central case $16.39 / share

AI middle hypothesis: automotive/service revenues scale with model/fleet utilization, storage demand improves, and software contribution rises gradually. Illustrative total revenue $125bn/145bn/168bn/193bn/220bn times common net margins 4.8%/6.2069%/7.7381%/9.3264%/10.9091% produces NI $6/9/13/18/24bn (rounded explicit model inputs). These are neither reported data nor management guidance. Capex remains $24-25bn in early buildout then declines to $21bn; higher installed assets raise D&A to $15bn. Operating working capital absorbs $1-3bn rather than indefinitely extrapolating supplier funding. $7bn aggregate net borrowing in first two years is a possible draw, not a committed outcome; repayments follow. Nominal equity cost12.5%, terminal g2.5% are illustrative and need market calibration.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+6,000

Depreciation+9,000

Capital expenditure-24,000

Working capital-1,000

Net borrowing+4,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 12.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 99.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	6,000	9,000	24,000	1,000	4,000	-6,000
2028	9,000	10,500	25,000	1,500	3,000	-4,000
2029	13,000	12,000	24,000	2,000	0	-1,000
2030	18,000	13,500	22,000	2,500	-2,000	5,000
2031	24,000	15,000	21,000	3,000	-3,000	12,000

Bull · Optimistic case $45.26 / share

AI upside hypothesis: successful autonomy/fleet monetization, energy storage expansion and improved vehicle cost position yield revenue $135/165/205/250/295bn and common NI $8/13/20/30/40bn; implied net margin expands from5.9% to13.6%. Upside is speculative and depends on regulation, safety, demand and execution; it is not company guidance. High early capex peaks $29bn, then $25bn; D&A follows asset growth. WC use increases with sales; initial financing gives way to repayments. No separate SpaceX equity or net-cash addition. Nominal11% equity cost and3% terminal growth are hypothesis ranges.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+8,000

Depreciation+9,500

Capital expenditure-26,000

Working capital-1,500

Net borrowing+4,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 92.4% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	8,000	9,500	26,000	1,500	4,000	-6,000
2028	13,000	11,000	29,000	2,000	3,000	-4,000
2029	20,000	13,000	28,000	3,000	0	2,000
2030	30,000	15,000	26,000	4,000	-3,000	12,000
2031	40,000	17,000	25,000	5,000	-4,000	23,000

As Of

2026-10-30

Facts Vs Guidance

Historical reported figures and the 2026 capex outlook are in source records. No management common-NI/FCFE forecast for2027-2031 was found; every future annual component is an explicit AI hypothesis.

Company Drivers

Bear: AI downside hypothesis: vehicle price competition and weak regulatory-credit support limit common earnings; storage growth fails to offset autonomy/robotics R&D. Net income grows only from $3.0bn to $4.5bn; capex is cut from $22bn to $12bn as management slows projects. Depreciation rises from prior buildout; working capital remains a modest cash use. Borrowing funds initial cash deficits, then deleveraging begins. No large autonomous software or robotics profit pool is assumed. Nominal equity cost 14% and g2% are explicit risk scenarios, not sourced current market rates.
Base: AI middle hypothesis: automotive/service revenues scale with model/fleet utilization, storage demand improves, and software contribution rises gradually. Illustrative total revenue $125bn/145bn/168bn/193bn/220bn times common net margins 4.8%/6.2069%/7.7381%/9.3264%/10.9091% produces NI $6/9/13/18/24bn (rounded explicit model inputs). These are neither reported data nor management guidance. Capex remains $24-25bn in early buildout then declines to $21bn; higher installed assets raise D&A to $15bn. Operating working capital absorbs $1-3bn rather than indefinitely extrapolating supplier funding. $7bn aggregate net borrowing in first two years is a possible draw, not a committed outcome; repayments follow. Nominal equity cost12.5%, terminal g2.5% are illustrative and need market calibration.
Bull: AI upside hypothesis: successful autonomy/fleet monetization, energy storage expansion and improved vehicle cost position yield revenue $135/165/205/250/295bn and common NI $8/13/20/30/40bn; implied net margin expands from5.9% to13.6%. Upside is speculative and depends on regulation, safety, demand and execution; it is not company guidance. High early capex peaks $29bn, then $25bn; D&A follows asset growth. WC use increases with sales; initial financing gives way to repayments. No separate SpaceX equity or net-cash addition. Nominal11% equity cost and3% terminal growth are hypothesis ranges.

Financing

Net borrowing includes debt issuance less repayments and finance-lease principal; undrawn facilities are not cash. Retained interest expense is in projected NI; no second debt deduction. Forecast earnings normalize tariff refunds, tax releases and unrealized investment gains; no separate cash or SpaceX asset addition.

Working Capital

Receivables, inventory, prepayments, payables/accruals and deferred-revenue cash timing inform WC. A positive changeWC uses cash; one-off2026 supplier/customer timing is not perpetuated. D&A forecast excludes repeated impairment assumption; capex is positive cash outflow.

Dilution

Fixed4200m claim approximation and no SBC addback are material simplifications; actual awards require future revisions.

Valuation Timing

Annual year-end2027-2031 forecast discounting approximates start2027; the remaining2026 stub cashflow is omitted. This is material because of spending timing.

Confidence & limitations

Low. Nominal equity-cost/terminal-growth ranges are illustrative risk hypotheses rather than market-calibrated CAPM; model is highly sensitive to terminal earnings, capex and share claims. Not a defensible undervaluation alert basis.

Evidence against the thesis

Current quarterly earnings are weak despite strategic opportunities. Current capex and cash-flow working-capital timing, autonomous safety/regulation, CEO award dilution, tariffs and competition could invalidate margin expansion.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed approximate future diluted claims:4200 million, an AI allowance ~6.25% above3953m issued shares at2026-09-30. Latest Q3 diluted weighted-average denominator3541m differs because EPS treatment/time weighting excludes some award shares; it is not treated as current total issued claims. Future CEO/employee award vesting, option exercises and any offerings are uncertain. SBC remains expensed in NI and is not added back. No buyback benefit assumed. Share approximation is not a reported share count or complete award valuation.

4200 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

SEC Form 10-Q ↗

Published 2026-10-22 · Report 2026-09-30

SEC Form 10-K ↗

Published 2026-01-29 · Report 2025-12-31

Company earnings publication ↗

Published 2026-10-21 · Report 2026-09-30

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:47:00 +0000

Barclays sees major Tesla upside for retirement investors

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:34:32 +0000

Tesla Just Gained 13% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 15:39:00 +0000

Tesla Stock Gets Dragged Down by Alphabet’s Misery

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:42:35 +0000

Musk Says A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Is “A Good Idea,” But Admits It Would Require 1.98 Billion “Yes” Votes. He Calls It “Quite A High Hurdle”

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:39:00 +0000

Tesla vs. Ford: Which Stock Has an Edge After Q3 Earnings?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 12:49:00 +0000

Should You Buy Tesla Stock Right Now? The Answer Might Surprise You.

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

META Meta Platforms Inc

$624.52

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$144.67

BASE · USD / SHARE$369.02

BULL · USD / SHARE$758.37

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-69.2%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Meta 的廣告業務仍強，但 AI 基建支出已令 Q3 公司定義的自由現金流轉負。本草稿逐年推估廣告／新產品成長、營業利益率、折舊、資本支出、非現金營運資金、債務融資與訴訟現金支出，並把新募資造成的稀釋獨立處理。不是已審核估值，也不把接近1000億美元募資標題當作已收到現金。

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $144.67 / share

AI hypothesis: ad price growth slows, infrastructure utilization and new Muse monetization disappoint, while capex and cloud/energy obligations remain sticky. Consolidated operating margin27-30% includes ongoing SBC and RL losses. Net new borrowing funds part of the early buildout, then5000m annual debt reduction2032-2035, before flat terminal debt. Capital spending declines only gradually; extra530m annual contingent-legal reserve on top of1270m recognized obligation. Cost of equity11.5% reflects execution, regulation and refinancing risk; terminal2% is a discretionary mature nominal-growth assumption. An explicit2037 normalization year grows revenue, DA and capex at the scenario terminal rate, holds margins/tax/net interest constant, and invests the same WC fraction of incremental revenue. The hypothetical2027-2036 litigation schedule then ends: no legal settlement adjustment is extended into terminal FCFE. Neither the assumed payment dates nor the absence of later new settlements are reported facts.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+56,439.5

Depreciation+45,000

Capital expenditure-170,000

Working capital-1,189.4

Net borrowing+15,000

Other adjustments-1,800

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 72.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	56,439.5	45,000	170,000	1,189.4	15,000	-1,800	-56,549.9
2028	57,687.5	60,000	160,000	1,000	10,000	-1,800	-35,112.5
2029	63,608.19	72,000	145,000	750	5,000	-1,800	-6,941.81
2030	69,966	78,000	130,000	750	0	-1,800	15,416
2031	76,440	82,000	120,000	750	0	-1,800	35,890
2032	80,340	85,000	110,000	750	-5,000	-1,800	47,790
2033	83,850	88,000	105,000	750	-5,000	-1,800	59,300
2034	87,360	90,000	100,000	750	-5,000	-1,800	69,810
2035	90,870	92,000	100,000	750	-5,000	-1,800	75,320
2036	94,380	94,000	100,000	750	0	-1,800	85,830
2037	96,345.6	95,880	102,000	420	0	0	89,805.6

2027 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2028 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2029 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2030 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2031 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2032 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2033 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2034 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2035 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2036 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m recognized-obligation allocation plus530m hypothetical contingent reserve. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

Base · Central case $369.02 / share

AI hypothesis: recommendations and ad conversion sustain high growth initially, then paid messaging, agents and enterprise products contribute while growth decelerates toward4%. RL cost reduction and infrastructure utilization lift consolidated operating margin32% to36%, retaining SBC expense. Capex remains extremely high before fading to25% of revenue; DA rises with commissioned assets. Early net borrowing15000m total is followed by debt reduction2032-2034, then flat debt. Litigation cash1270m yearly is separately charged because forecast NI excludes the2026 accrual.10.5% equity return and2.5% terminal growth are uncalibrated risk judgments, not quoted market inputs. An explicit2037 normalization year grows revenue, DA and capex at the scenario terminal rate, holds margins/tax/net interest constant, and invests the same WC fraction of incremental revenue. The hypothetical2027-2036 litigation schedule then ends: no legal settlement adjustment is extended into terminal FCFE. Neither the assumed payment dates nor the absence of later new settlements are reported facts.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+73,267.5

Depreciation+50,000

Capital expenditure-175,000

Working capital-1,951.5

Net borrowing+10,000

Other adjustments-1,270

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 64.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	73,267.5	50,000	175,000	1,951.52	10,000	-1,270	-44,954.02
2028	88,507.5	70,000	180,000	2,000	5,000	-1,270	-19,762.5
2029	105,252.19	85,000	175,000	2,000	0	-1,270	11,982.19
2030	123,400	95,000	170,000	2,000	0	-1,270	45,130
2031	140,400	103,000	165,000	1,800	0	-1,270	75,330
2032	152,320	110,000	160,000	1,600	-5,000	-1,270	94,450
2033	162,400	116,000	155,000	1,400	-5,000	-1,270	115,730
2034	171,040	122,000	151,250	1,200	-5,000	-1,270	134,320
2035	178,240	127,000	157,500	1,000	0	-1,270	145,470
2036	185,440	131,000	163,750	1,000	0	-1,270	150,420
2037	190,156	134,275	167,843.75	655	0	0	155,932.25

2027 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2028 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2029 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2030 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2031 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2032 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2033 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2034 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2035 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

2036 adjustment: Cash settlement of previously accrued multistate litigation obligation, excluded from recurring forecast NI; 1270m annual allocation. Assumed payment timing2027-2036, not a verified amortization schedule.

Bull · Optimistic case $758.37 / share

AI hypothesis: strong ad performance combines with meaningful agent/enterprise/Muse revenue, capacity utilization and custom silicon improve unit costs, and consolidated operating margin reaches40% despite retained SBC and continuing RL losses. Growth still fades to4.5% by2036; capex fades to25% of revenue. Forecast requires successful monetization, not merely launched products or user counts. Financing assumes only5000m net new debt before paydown2031-2034 and flat terminal debt. Equity return9.5%/terminal3% are optimistic judgments; financing and regulatory risks remain. An explicit2037 normalization year grows revenue, DA and capex at the scenario terminal rate, holds margins/tax/net interest constant, and invests the same WC fraction of incremental revenue. The hypothetical2027-2036 litigation schedule then ends: no legal settlement adjustment is extended into terminal FCFE. Neither the assumed payment dates nor the absence of later new settlements are reported facts.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+90,207.5

Depreciation+55,000

Capital expenditure-185,000

Working capital-2,951.5

Net borrowing+5,000

Other adjustments-1,270

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 68.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	90,207.5	55,000	185,000	2,951.52	5,000	-1,270	-39,014.02
2028	120,301.5	80,000	205,000	3,200	0	-1,270	-9,168.5
2029	154,923.19	100,000	215,000	3,400	0	-1,270	35,253.19
2030	187,780	115,000	220,000	3,400	0	-1,270	78,110
2031	214,430	128,000	225,000	3,200	-5,000	-1,270	107,960
2032	237,800	140,000	225,000	2,800	-5,000	-1,270	143,730
2033	257,890	150,000	221,200	2,400	-5,000	-1,270	178,020
2034	274,700	158,000	218,400	2,000	-5,000	-1,270	206,030
2035	289,460	165,000	221,250	1,800	0	-1,270	230,140
2036	302,580	170,000	231,250	1,600	0	-1,270	238,460
2037	311,682	175,100	238,187.5	1,110	0	0	247,484.5

As Of

2026-10-30T04:00:00Z

Confidence & limitations

low; company-specific researched calculated draft, not research approval

Facts Vs Guidance Vs Hypotheses

sources facts are reported values; guidance is explicitly labeled. Every2027-2037 forecast, cost of equity, terminal growth, future ATM issuance, option exercise, litigation timing, margins and refinancing path is an AI hypothesis. The2026 reference revenue256212m is nine-month reported181712 plus Q4 guidance midpoint74500; it is not reported full-year revenue.

Annual Derivation

NI common=(revenue*consolidated operating margin-net interest expense)*(1-tax rate)-preferred dividend. Expenses/margins retain ongoing SBC and operating lease/cloud costs; exclude the previously booked2026 multistate accrual to avoid recurring it. DA is a separate explicit asset-commissioning forecast. Capex is total cash PPE plus finance-lease principal; lease principal is not subtracted in netBorrowing again. changeWC=4% incremental annual revenue in base/bull,5% bear, using256212m2026 reference. This is noncash operating WC including recurring accrual funding; legal settlement is isolated below to avoid treating accrual release as ordinary WC. All33 annual component rows are hypotheses, not copied reports.

Terminal Normalization

Each scenario pays the assumed finite litigation reserve in2027-2036 only. The additional explicit2037 forecast has otherAdjustments=0 and no adjustmentReason: revenue,DA,capex grow from2036 at2%/2.5%/3% in bear/base/bull; NI derives from unchanged operating margin,tax and net interest; changeWC retains the scenario5%/4%/4% fraction of revenue increment; preferred dividends and net borrowing stay zero. Thus2038 onward perpetuity begins from a normalized2037 FCFE rather than continuing a finite settlement deduction forever. Actual settlement dates and any later legal cash costs remain uncertain; this normalization is a hypothesis, not a reported legal schedule.

Capex Policy

FY2026 capex guidance135000-145000 includes finance-lease principal. FY2027-2037 capex and DA are scenario hypotheses for a prolonged buildout. Future operating leases and cloud obligations are represented in NI operating costs; financing leases in capex including principal. Noncancelable commitments overlap PPE/cloud/energy spending, so they are not mechanically subtracted a second time. Commitment maturity/category reconciliation remains a material approval gap.

Financing policy

NetBorrowing is new debt net of principal repayment excluding finance-lease principal already in capex. August2027 maturity2750m is assumed refinanced before the shown net borrowing/paydown. Interest expense is in NI. Equity/pref/ATM proceeds are not earnings, FCFE or debt borrowing; none is added as an otherAdjustment or terminal asset. Equity funding needed for buildout is represented by explicit dilution reserve, with funding timing and closing unverified. Terminal net borrowing is zero: mature debt is refinanced one-for-one instead of assuming perpetual principal reduction. No automatic cash addition/debt subtraction after equity FCFE discounting.

Preferred Policy

Coupon6.5%*12500m=812.5m annual preferred dividend deducted from NI common in2027 and2028,2029 uses a7.5/12-year approximation507.8125m until Aug15 conversion; thereafter zero. Assumes cash election, base issuance only, excludes dividend over-allotment increment. Fixed denominator pre-includes maximum conversion and over-allotment reserve: deliberately conservative early dilution, not an exact two-class EPS or option valuation. It does not charge preferred dividends in perpetuity.

Share count & dilution

2793m denominator is a disclosed fixed economic-equivalent stress approximation. The planned Class C dividend is a share-unit change, not value creation. Future ATM issuance price625 is an AI assumption based on the announced common offer price, not an agreed ATM price. Actual share counts vary by settlement, Class C conversion mechanics and market prices. SBC remains economic expense and is not added back; no assumed buyback benefit. Taxes withheld on employee vesting are not separately deducted again in this economic SBC convention.

Evidence against the thesis

Q3 advertising revenue momentum and price/impression growth support upside, but Q3 reported operating margin20% reflects both legal accrual and the increasing AI expense burden.
FY2027 strong-growth expectation is qualitative; management expressly did not provide a revenue outlook.
Not-commenced leases355730m and other commitments454520m indicate a much longer infrastructure spending burden than a simple capex normalization story.
Class C creation/forward sales/preferred conversion and potential ATM can dilute the original economic interest; actual ATM may never be established.
Large legal liabilities, contingent obligations, rising debt interest, foreign-exchange and tax changes can overwhelm operating growth.

Limitations

Material Oct29 8-K body/index retrieval failed; do not treat planned closing as independently verified. Official Oct26/27 announcements support announced terms only. Retry primary8-K and prospectus before approval.
Pref coupon/convertible/share-class mechanics are simplified; over-allotment cash dividends and conversion adjustments require full prospectus valuation.
Base/bull capex normalization toward25% revenue is not guidance; long-term compute depreciation, lease renewals and replacement cost could be higher.
Cash and nonoperating investments are not separately credited; cash is assumed retained for funding and interest economics are netted in NI. This can understate asset value.
Exact remaining2026 stub discounting is absent: forecasts start2027 and use year-end periods from valuation date.
Costs of equity are scenario judgments; current risk-free rate/beta/ERP were not calibrated.
Fixed denominator and SBC-as-economic-cost convention are approximations; no >=20% discount alert should be generated from this unreviewed draft.
Financial numerics validate arithmetic only; this is not investment research approval.

Deferred Checks

Accession
0001193125-26-438017
Task
Retrieve primary Oct29 financing8-K, confirm closing/exercised options and preferred prospectus/Class-C adjustment mechanics
Status
retry
Reason
Primary SEC body and index inaccessible via web tool; official pricing announcement does not confirm actual closing.

Run Id

20261030T0400Z

Arithmetic Validation

Valid: true
Calculator Version: 1.0.0

Research Approved

false

Comparison Eligibility

Initial unreviewed company-specific draft; no generic-proxy comparison or defensible-model discount signal.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed fully diluted pre-Class-C-dividend-equivalent approximation, all figures in millions: Q3 diluted2573 +55 currently excluded antidilutive awards +40 announced forward common shares +20 maximum preferred conversion equivalent +96 hypothetical future ATM shares (60000/625) +9 hypothetical over-allotment reserve (6 common +3 preferred equivalent)=2793. Future ATM, option exercise and conversion equivalence are explicit AI hypotheses, not issued share facts. Includes financing dilution from inception conservatively; preferred cash dividends deducted only through2029 transition. Existing Class A plus future Class C stock-dividend pair is one pre-dividend economic unit. Do not compare resulting value to one post-split Class A share without adjusting units. Ongoing SBC remains expense, no addback or further share-growth benefit; no repurchase credit.

2793 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

reported ↗

· Report 2025-12-31

reported ↗

· Report 2026-09-30

reported_and_management_guidance ↗

· Report 2026-09-30

management_announcement_priced_terms ↗

management_plan_not_executed ↗

retrieval_blocker_not_model_fact ↗

· Report 2026-10-26

Company news

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 21:35:13 +0000

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

LLY Lilly(Eli) & Co

$1,373.70

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:03:18.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$183.14

BASE · USD / SHARE$635.27

BULL · USD / SHARE$1,371.41

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-116.2%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Lilly 的最新財報顯示需求與全年營收指引上修，但降價、一次性收入、製造擴張和大型研發收購會改變真正可分配股東現金流。此草稿分開預測 Mounjaro、Zepbound 與其他產品，逐年扣除營運資金、廠房投資、外部研發／收購現金及去槓桿，並保留已費用化股權薪酬。它是待審核情境分析，不是買賣建議或已核准公允價值。

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $183.14 / share

AI downside hypothesis: incretin volume growth slows rapidly as price erosion, access limits and competing therapies outweigh new indications. Mounjaro and Zepbound peak by2029 then decline; other medicines including Foundayo and unapproved pipeline grow modestly. Lower core margins retain ordinary R&D, SBC, amortization, interest and tax. Committed manufacturing buildout keeps capex elevated even as sales disappoint. Acquired-IPR&D cash is assumed expensed in NI in the same year; separate business-acquisition cash remains a recurring reserve. 11.5% equity return and1.5% terminal growth reflect concentration, pricing and execution risk; judgments, not measured CAPM.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+32,760

Depreciation+2,600

Capital expenditure-13,000

Working capital-1,170

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-5,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 36.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	32,760	2,600	13,000	1,170	0	-5,000	16,190
2028	33,220	3,000	13,000	720	-1,000	-5,000	16,500
2029	32,900	3,500	12,000	360	-1,000	-5,000	18,040
2030	31,520	3,900	11,000	-180	-1,000	-4,500	19,100
2031	30,330	4,200	10,000	-360	0	-4,500	20,390
2032	28,360	4,500	9,000	-540	0	-4,500	19,900
2033	26,140	4,700	8,000	-720	0	-4,250	19,310
2034	25,400	4,900	8,000	-720	0	-4,250	18,770
2035	24,470	5,100	8,000	-540	0	-4,250	17,860
2036	23,850	5,300	8,000	-360	0	-4,250	17,260

2027 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1500. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2028 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1500. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2029 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1500. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2030 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2031 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2032 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2033 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2034 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash2500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2035 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash2500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2036 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve3500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash2500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

Base · Central case $635.27 / share

AI central hypothesis: Mounjaro and Zepbound expand from a combined2026 full-year modeling anchor of$60B to$76B in2027, then mature as competitive pricing and eventual exclusivity risks constrain sales. Other-product revenue, including Foundayo, oncology, immunology and future launches, rises from an assumed$31.5B in2026 to$36B in2027 and$80B by2036. These category paths are hypotheses, not disclosed product guidance or probability-weighted drug forecasts. Core net margin peaks44% then falls40%; acquired-IPR&D charges are separately deducted within NI. Manufacturing capex peaks$15B before easing while depreciation catches up; explicit pipeline reserves persist. Debt is paid down by$8.5B across2027–2031, then refinanced at constant nominal balance.9.5% equity return and2.5% terminal growth are sensitivity judgments reflecting durability plus concentration/clinical risks.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+44,660

Depreciation+2,700

Capital expenditure-14,000

Working capital-3,075

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-5,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 53.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	44,660	2,700	14,000	3,075	-2,000	-5,500	22,785
2028	50,810	3,300	15,000	2,100	-2,000	-5,500	29,510
2029	57,160	4,000	15,000	1,950	-2,000	-6,000	36,210
2030	61,060	4,700	14,000	1,500	-1,500	-6,000	42,760
2031	64,230	5,300	13,000	1,350	-1,000	-6,250	47,930
2032	65,520	5,800	12,000	900	0	-6,250	52,170
2033	65,975	6,200	11,000	450	0	-6,500	54,225
2034	65,140	6,500	11,000	0	0	-6,500	54,140
2035	63,470	6,800	10,500	0	0	-6,500	53,270
2036	61,400	7,100	10,500	-150	0	-6,500	51,650

2027 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve4500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash3500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2028 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve4500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash4000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2029 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve5000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash4000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2030 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve5000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash4500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2031 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve5500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash4500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2032 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve5500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash5000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2033 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve6000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve500. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash5000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2034 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve6000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve500. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash5000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2035 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve6000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve500. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash5000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2036 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve6000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve500. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash5000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

Bull · Optimistic case $1,371.41 / share

AI upside hypothesis: expanded reimbursement, international volume, oral-GLP1 adoption and new indications sustain tirzepatide growth; Foundayo and a succession of pipeline launches create a much larger non-tirzepatide business. This requires repeated clinical/commercial wins and is deliberately demanding. Core margins peak46% despite price pressure because of manufacturing scale, then fade; cash pipeline investments and capex grow substantially rather than assuming cost-free new products.8.5% equity return and3% terminal growth assume durable diversification and successful capacity delivery; no freshly measured CAPM is claimed.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+48,300

Depreciation+3,000

Capital expenditure-16,000

Working capital-4,275

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-6,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 67.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	48,300	3,000	16,000	4,275	0	-6,500	24,525
2028	61,150	3,900	18,000	4,050	-2,000	-7,000	34,000
2029	74,040	4,900	20,000	4,050	-3,000	-8,000	43,890
2030	85,000	6,000	21,000	3,900	-3,000	-9,000	54,100
2031	95,500	7,000	22,000	3,750	-2,000	-10,000	64,750
2032	104,295	8,000	22,500	3,600	0	-10,750	75,445
2033	112,400	9,000	23,000	3,450	0	-11,750	83,200
2034	118,940	10,000	23,000	3,000	0	-12,750	90,190
2035	123,960	11,000	23,000	2,550	0	-13,750	95,660
2036	127,940	12,000	23,000	2,250	0	-14,750	99,940

2027 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve5500 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash4500 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2028 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve6000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash5000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2029 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve7000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash6000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2030 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve8000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash7000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2031 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve9000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve1000. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash8000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2032 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve10000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash9000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2033 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve11000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash10000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2034 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve12000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash11000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2035 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve13000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash12000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

2036 adjustment: Deduct capitalized business-acquisition/pipeline cash reserve14000 and incremental cash-tax-versus-book-tax reserve750. Acquired-IPR&D expense/cash13000 is already deducted from NI_common (assumed no tax benefit and same-year payment); do not deduct it again or add it back. Ordinary R&D, SBC, royalties, interest and book tax stay in coreNI; D&A adds only included depreciation/amortization.

Facts Vs Estimates

Only sources contain reported financial facts/management guidance. Every2027–2036 model number and the2026category bridge are explicit AI hypotheses.2026total anchor91500m is guidance midpoint; assumed brand split Mounjaro40000+Zepbound20000+other31500 is not disclosed guidance. Q3 one-time milestones/rebate benefits are not mechanically annualized. No undisclosed trial outcome or precise patent-expiry date is asserted.

Derivation

Revenue is the exact sum of three category forecasts stored in eachyear. CoreNI is revenue times scenario-specific margin after ordinaryR&D, royalties, SBC, amortization, netinterest and booktax, before acquiredIPRD. NI_common then deducts separately stored acquiredIPRD expense, conservatively assuming no tax benefit and same-year cashpayment. Thus IPRD cash is counted once through NI. D&A adds included depreciation/amortization; capex is positive PP&E outflow; changeWC equals incremental revenue times18%bear/15%base/bull. Separate otherAdjustments deduct capitalized businessacquisition reserve and cash-tax timingreserve. Forecast tax/working-capital reserves are judgments; reported CFO aggregate adjustments are not mislabeled pureWC.

Capex And Financing

Cash manufacturing capex is explicitly scheduled and remains above current depreciation through the horizon. Spending profiles approximate continued expansion; announced site values are not added again on top of modelcapex. NetBorrowing is debtcashissued less principalrepaid, with negative values representing assumed deleveraging. Interest stays in NI. No cash addition, debt bridge, dividend subtraction, buyback subtraction or enterprise-to-equity conversion is applied after FCFEdiscounting. Terminal nominal debt is held constant.

Dilution

894m frozen diluted-share approximation follows managementguidance and recent weighted diluted counts. Legal common countincludes trustshares and cannot be substituted unadjusted. Trustfunding could create future economic dilution; no dynamictrustdistribution or option path is modeled. SBC expense stays in NI without addback, and no buyback benefit is credited; fixedshare approximation remains a limitation.

Terminal And Rates

All scenarios have ten explicit2027–2036years. TerminalFCFE remains positive; terminalgrowth1.5/2.5/3% stays below equitydiscount11.5/9.5/8.5%. These nominalUSD return assumptions are risk sensitivities, not currentCAPM estimates; higher rates reflect pricing/concentration/clinical risks. Persistent IPRD/acquisition/ordinaryR&D spending funds replacementproducts in terminalperiod. Patentcompetition is scenario stress, not a verified expiry schedule.

Confidence & limitations

Low: primary-source extraction is highconfidence; long-horizon productcategory, pricing, pipeline, margins, cash-tax and financing assumptions are lowconfidence and need independent researchapproval.

Evidence against the thesis

Strongvolume and expandedaccess can support larger sales, but realizedpriceerosion and one-off revenuebenefits make headlinegrowth a poor perpetualgrowth input.
New manufacturingcapacity may unlock supply but capex, commissioningdelays and unusedcapacity can depress cash returns.
Clinical progress supports diversification, while the bullcase requires many successful launches; failedtrials, competition and reimbursement restrictions could invalidate it.
Revenueguidance improved while inclusiveEPSguidance declined because acquisitioncharges rose; EPSdirection alone does not establish FCFEchange.
Positive9MCFO does not make cashacquisitions or purchasedIPRD disappear. Forecast annual externalinvestment below2026spike is an uncertain normalization assumption.

Limitations

Unreviewed calculateddraft; do not emit a defensible-model discountsignal or classify numericalvalidation as researchapproval.
No precise2026stubperiod; firstfullforecast2027 is discountedoneperiod underapp year-endcalculator.
Categoryforecasts are not full drug-by-drug, geography, reimbursement or patent probabilitymodels. Othercategory contains both existingbrands and uncertain futurelaunches.
Cash-tax and noncashWC modeled with explicit reserves/ratios rather than full balance-sheetrollforwards; acquisition-related balance-sheetchanges are not treated as operatingWCcash.
Pipeline cash reserves are expected-spending assumptions, not contractual payment schedules; MeridaOct2026 cash is outside firstfullforecast and no claim is made to know upfront amount.
SBC/dilution and trustdistribution approximated by fixedshares; historical2026capex/acquisitiondebt not mechanically rolled into permanent annualborrowing.
No approved predecessor company-specificmodel exists for normal valuationchangecomparison; currentprice is a separate observed signal.

Run Id

20261030T0400Z

Arithmetic Validation

Valid: true
Calculator Version: 1.0.0

Research Approved

false

Comparison Eligibility

Initial unreviewed company-specific draft; no generic-proxy comparison or defensible-model discount signal.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed894m diluted-share approximation using management2026 guidance share assumption (Oct29release); Q3 weighted diluted893.439m and9M894.371m corroborate scale. Oct26cover940.745031m legal common shares includes employee-benefit-trust shares; FY2025 Note13 reports50m trust shares excluded from EPS and eliminated intragroup dividends. Do not divide by940m or apply a stock-split factor. No buyback uplift; SBC stays in NI and is not added back; fixed shares approximate ongoing compensation dilution with no explicit new issuance path.

894 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

reported ↗

reported_and_management_guidance ↗

reported_event_and_management_plan ↗

official_filing_metadata ↗

official_history ↗

secondary_quote ↗

Company news

Regular close monitor · 2026-10-29T20:00:00Z

LLY daily close change 6.63%

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:40:43 +0000

How much can GLP-1s raise the bar for healthcare stocks?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 22:15:36 +0000

Eli Lilly and Company Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:14:24 +0000

Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:48:00 +0000

Why Eli Lilly’s CFO Sees Cancer Drugs as the Next Growth Drivers

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:42:20 +0000

Eli Lilly Sells 53% More at Lower Prices: Rapid Earnings Reaction

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

MU Micron Technology Inc.

$934.27

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$296.90

BASE · USD / SHARE$873.46

BULL · USD / SHARE$1,826.16

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-7.0%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Micron的估值核心是AI/HBM需求能讓記憶體高利潤維持多久，以及擴廠、應收款與可退還客戶預付款會消耗多少現金。模型用公司專屬的成長、週期正常化與產能投資情境，沒有直接把最近的高峰單季乘四。

bear · Equity cost 12.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $296.90 / share

AI bear hypothesis: the memory supply shortage eases after FY2027, HBM pricing and conventional DRAM/NAND margins mean-revert faster than output grows, and new-fab spending remains high. NI explicitly falls rather than mechanically extrapolating the extraordinary FY2026/Q4 margins. Customer-deposit repayments remain cash claims even in a downturn. Forecast gross capex exceeds the near-term net-capex plan; smaller grant proceeds and persistent reinvestment impair equity cash conversion. Cost of equity and terminal growth are explicit nominal AI scenario assumptions, not sourced market calibration. Terminal FY2032 excludes capital grants and completed customer-deposit repayments, while recurring strategic cash uses persist. Full fiscal-year end discount convention; no cash/debt bridge.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+100,000

Depreciation+13,000

Capital expenditure-61,000

Working capital-12,000

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments+3,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 12.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 60.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	100,000	13,000	61,000	12,000	-1,000	3,000	42,000
2028	85,000	17,500	66,000	6,000	-1,000	3,500	33,000
2029	60,000	23,000	60,000	2,000	-1,000	0	20,000
2030	55,000	28,000	52,000	2,000	0	-1,500	27,500
2031	58,000	31,000	48,000	3,500	0	-2,250	35,250
2032	62,000	33,000	47,000	4,000	0	-1,000	43,000

2027 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +4000, strategic equity investments -1000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2028 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +4500, strategic equity investments -1000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2029 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +5000, strategic equity investments -1000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4000. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2030 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +4000, strategic equity investments -1000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4500. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2031 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +3000, strategic equity investments -1000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4250. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2032 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +0, strategic equity investments -1000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

Base · Central case $873.46 / share

AI base hypothesis: HBM/server DRAM and enterprise SSD demand support further FY2027-FY2028 expansion, but the pricing shortage and 80%+ gross-margin regime normalize. Illustrative revenue/NI anchors (USD millions) are FY2027 220000/132000 and FY2032 300000/138000, i.e. NI margin falls from60% to46% as supply expands. Interim NI is explicitly forecast rather than using one growth rate. Gross capex funds Idaho/Taiwan and advanced HBM capacity; grants are separately modeled and not perpetuated. WC absorbs receivables/inventory cash, debt is modestly repaid, and refundable customer deposits are excluded as a source of shareholder cash. Cost of equity and terminal growth are explicit nominal AI scenario assumptions, not sourced market calibration. Terminal FY2032 excludes capital grants and completed customer-deposit repayments, while recurring strategic cash uses persist. Full fiscal-year end discount convention; no cash/debt bridge.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+132,000

Depreciation+13,000

Capital expenditure-61,000

Working capital-10,000

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments+4,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 64.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	132,000	13,000	61,000	10,000	-1,000	4,000	77,000
2028	143,000	18,000	73,000	11,000	-1,000	4,500	80,500
2029	139,000	24,000	75,000	8,000	-1,000	0	79,000
2030	128,000	29,000	70,000	6,000	0	-1,000	80,000
2031	132,000	32,000	65,000	7,000	0	-750	91,250
2032	138,000	34,000	62,000	7,500	0	-1,500	101,000

2027 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +5000, strategic equity investments -1000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2028 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +6000, strategic equity investments -1500, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2029 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +6000, strategic equity investments -2000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4000. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2030 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +5000, strategic equity investments -1500, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4500. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2031 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +5000, strategic equity investments -1500, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4250. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2032 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +0, strategic equity investments -1500, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

Bull · Optimistic case $1,826.16 / share

AI bull hypothesis: multigenerational HBM/server memory demand and contracted volumes sustain tight supply longer, while high-value mix and productivity protect earnings despite rising fab investment. Revenue/NI FY2032 anchor is390000/215000 million; that margin is still below FY2026 peak. Gross capex remains above base to support this capacity. WC and strategic investment uses grow with scale; no renewed refundable customer deposits are treated as distributable FCFE. Cost of equity and terminal growth are explicit nominal AI scenario assumptions, not sourced market calibration. Terminal FY2032 excludes capital grants and completed customer-deposit repayments, while recurring strategic cash uses persist. Full fiscal-year end discount convention; no cash/debt bridge.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+155,000

Depreciation+13,500

Capital expenditure-64,000

Working capital-14,000

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments+4,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 73.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	155,000	13,500	64,000	14,000	-1,000	4,500	94,000
2028	178,000	19,000	79,000	15,000	-1,000	5,000	107,000
2029	190,000	25,500	85,000	12,000	-1,000	500	118,000
2030	196,000	32,000	80,000	10,000	0	-500	137,500
2031	205,000	36,000	76,000	10,000	0	-1,250	153,750
2032	215,000	39,000	73,000	11,000	0	-2,000	168,000

2027 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +6000, strategic equity investments -1500, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2028 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +7000, strategic equity investments -2000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2029 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +7000, strategic equity investments -2500, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4000. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2030 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +6000, strategic equity investments -2000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4500. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2031 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +5000, strategic equity investments -2000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -4250. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

2032 adjustment: AI cash forecasts USD million: capital-government incentives +0, strategic equity investments -2000, refundable customer-deposit repayments -0. Gross capex is deducted separately; no double-counting of grants in capex. Deposit inflows are never included in operating FCFE or net borrowing. The annual repayment allocation totals12,750 across FY2029-31 versus the reported approximate12.75b obligation, not a company-issued exact payment schedule.

Facts Vs Guidance

Historical financial inputs and forward management targets are separately identified in sources_json. All six-year forecast components are AI hypotheses, not reported future facts.

Model Method

NICommon+DA-grossCapex-changeWC+netBorrowing+otherAdjustments. NI includes SBC expense and interest/tax. No SBC addback. No cash/debt adjustment after equity discounting; retained cash investment income is included in NI assumptions. Securities purchases are not all treated as operating capex; strategic nonmarketable equity purchases are separately deducted. Returned deposits are financing obligations, never future operating growth.

Assumptions

FullFY2027-FY2032 annual cash forecasts, end-of-year discount convention. FY2027 has partly elapsed at model date; no accurate interim valuation stub is available, so full-year convention is approximate. TerminalFY2032 deliberately has zero capital grants and zero deposit repayment, with recurring capex/WC/strategic cash uses maintained. Fixed1150m diluted-share assumption omits dynamic dilution/buybacks; equity compensation remains an economic cost through NI.

Rate Limitations

11%base CoE and2.5%terminal nominal growth are explicit AI hypotheses requiring independent risk-free/beta/ERP calibration; terminal g is below CoE. Values are scenario estimates, not proof of mispricing or safe investments.

Confidence & limitations

Low overall despite high source confidence: extreme memory-cycle margins, supply additions, HBM mix, grant timing, contract deposits, and capex make outcomes highly uncertain.

Evidence against the thesis

Earnings normalization is a material adverse case; grants may be reduced or clawed back; customer-deposit repayments reduce2029-31 equity cash. Current news/product updates are not assumed to guarantee demand or profits.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed diluted-claims approximation of 1,150 million, slightly above FY2026 weighted diluted 1,143 million and Q4 1,147 million. Future buyback accretion is not assumed; no SBC add-back to NI. The buffer is an AI assumption, not an exact issuance forecast. All forecast cash and share inputs are in millions.

1150 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

SEC Form 10-K ↗

Published 2026-10-09 · Report FY2026 ended2026-09-03; comparableFY2025/FY2024

USD millions: NI84969; DA9503; CFO89675; gross PP&E30712; capital incentives3316; debt issuance0 and repayment10043. Diluted shares1143. Refundable customer deposits12747 were financing cash, mostly due2029-31. FY2025 NI8539 versus FY2024 778 demonstrates cyclicality.

SEC earnings release ↗

Published 2026-09-30 · Report Q4FY2026 and Q1FY2027 outlook

ReportedQ4 diluted shares1147. ManagementQ1FY27 revenue61500±1500 and GAAP EPS37.84±1.00; guidance is not an achieved result.

Official current news ↗

Published 2026-10-19 · Report October21 technology webinar announcement

Technology roadmap communication; no numerical earnings uplift inferred.

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:26:05 +0000

Alphabet drops 12% in deepening tech and semiconductor rout

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 23:41:00 +0000

Micron Is Trading for Less Than 6 Times Forward Earnings. Here's Why That's a Sign to Buy.

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:45:03 +0000

Here's Why Micron (MU) Fell More Than Broader Market

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:09:32 +0000

Sandisk and Micron Slide 5% as Samsung Miss Cools Memory Rally Ahead of Sandisk Earnings; SK Hynix Falls 3%, Western Digital Dips

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:38:45 +0000

Musk: Robot RAM Needs “Will Exceed Everything Else on Earth.” What That Means for Micron

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:28:08 +0000

Bank of America Names Top Stock Pick in Memory Sector

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

WMT Walmart Inc

$121.25

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$7.92

BASE · USD / SHARE$26.98

BULL · USD / SHARE$55.27

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-349.4%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

Model assumption needs revision

Review long-run reinvestment, working capital and nominal rate calibration.

Keep this scenario estimate separate from a conclusion that the stock is overvalued.

The research behind the number

Walmart combines mature retail cash generation with expanding advertising, membership and eCommerce economics. The model asks whether automation and digital mix convert earnings growth into parent-shareholder cash after high omnichannel capex, working capital and lease/debt repayments.

bear · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 2.0%bull · Equity cost 8.0% · Terminal 2.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $7.92 / share

Low-margin value investment and tariff/labor costs offset digital mix gains; inventory absorbs cash and automation spending remains elevated. Sales/margin conversion lags management’s near-term adjusted outlook. All annual components are explicit AI forecasts. Working capital excludes cash/debt; positive changeWC is a cash use. netBorrowing includes assumed finance-lease principal repayments with routine debt refinancing neutral; operating lease rent and interest remain in earnings. Cost of equity and terminal growth are nominal scenario hypotheses, not claimed risk-free/beta/ERP estimates. They require calibration before defensible alerts; the recent note coupons support a financing-risk check, not a direct equity cost. Terminal growth is deliberately below FY2027 sales guidance and below equity cost.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+22,000

Depreciation+16,500

Capital expenditure-32,500

Working capital-1,500

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments+555

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 69.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	22,000	16,500	32,500	1,500	-1,000	555	4,055
2029	22,500	17,200	33,000	1,600	-1,000	552	4,652
2030	23,000	17,900	33,500	1,700	-1,000	549	5,249
2031	23,500	18,600	34,000	1,800	-1,000	546	5,846
2032	24,000	19,300	34,500	1,900	-1,000	543	6,443

2028 adjustment: AI hypothesis: common NI already excludes minority earnings. Add back 3% of consolidated net investment (capex + noncash WC investment - D&A - net borrowing) to exclude assumed minority-funded net investment. The 3% capital allocation is a coarse approximation informed by H1 noncontrolling earnings / consolidated NI (~2.7%), not an observed ownership/capex allocation.

2029 adjustment: AI hypothesis: common NI already excludes minority earnings. Add back 3% of consolidated net investment (capex + noncash WC investment - D&A - net borrowing) to exclude assumed minority-funded net investment. The 3% capital allocation is a coarse approximation informed by H1 noncontrolling earnings / consolidated NI (~2.7%), not an observed ownership/capex allocation.

2030 adjustment: AI hypothesis: common NI already excludes minority earnings. Add back 3% of consolidated net investment (capex + noncash WC investment - D&A - net borrowing) to exclude assumed minority-funded net investment. The 3% capital allocation is a coarse approximation informed by H1 noncontrolling earnings / consolidated NI (~2.7%), not an observed ownership/capex allocation.

2031 adjustment: AI hypothesis: common NI already excludes minority earnings. Add back 3% of consolidated net investment (capex + noncash WC investment - D&A - net borrowing) to exclude assumed minority-funded net investment. The 3% capital allocation is a coarse approximation informed by H1 noncontrolling earnings / consolidated NI (~2.7%), not an observed ownership/capex allocation.

2032 adjustment: AI hypothesis: common NI already excludes minority earnings. Add back 3% of consolidated net investment (capex + noncash WC investment - D&A - net borrowing) to exclude assumed minority-funded net investment. The 3% capital allocation is a coarse approximation informed by H1 noncontrolling earnings / consolidated NI (~2.7%), not an observed ownership/capex allocation.

Base · Central case $26.98 / share

Growth is supported by omnichannel share, advertising and membership economics; net income compounds faster than sales as fulfillment density and automation improve. FY2028 common income $24.5bn is a hypothesis above the roughly $22.4–22.9bn FY2027 adjusted-EPS/share-count anchor, not management GAAP guidance. Capex stays high but grows slower than cash earnings. All annual components are explicit AI forecasts. Working capital excludes cash/debt; positive changeWC is a cash use. netBorrowing includes assumed finance-lease principal repayments with routine debt refinancing neutral; operating lease rent and interest remain in earnings. Cost of equity and terminal growth are nominal scenario hypotheses, not claimed risk-free/beta/ERP estimates. They require calibration before defensible alerts; the recent note coupons support a financing-risk check, not a direct equity cost. Terminal growth is deliberately below FY2027 sales guidance and below equity cost.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+24,500

Depreciation+17,000

Capital expenditure-30,000

Working capital-700

Net borrowing-900

Other adjustments+438

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 75.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	24,500	17,000	30,000	700	-900	438	10,338
2029	26,300	17,800	31,000	750	-900	446	11,896
2030	28,200	18,600	32,000	800	-1,000	456	13,456
2031	30,300	19,400	33,000	850	-1,000	464	15,314
2032	32,500	20,200	34,000	900	-1,000	471	17,271

Bull · Optimistic case $55.27 / share

Digital advertising, marketplace and membership mix produce sustained operating leverage, store fulfillment becomes more efficient and growth capital intensity moderates. Optimistic margin/cash conversion, not management annual earnings guidance. All annual components are explicit AI forecasts. Working capital excludes cash/debt; positive changeWC is a cash use. netBorrowing includes assumed finance-lease principal repayments with routine debt refinancing neutral; operating lease rent and interest remain in earnings. Cost of equity and terminal growth are nominal scenario hypotheses, not claimed risk-free/beta/ERP estimates. They require calibration before defensible alerts; the recent note coupons support a financing-risk check, not a direct equity cost. Terminal growth is deliberately below FY2027 sales guidance and below equity cost.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+27,000

Depreciation+17,500

Capital expenditure-29,000

Working capital-300

Net borrowing-800

Other adjustments+378

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 81.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	27,000	17,500	29,000	300	-800	378	14,778
2029	30,000	18,500	30,000	400	-800	381	17,681
2030	33,400	19,500	31,000	500	-900	387	20,887
2031	37,100	20,500	32,000	600	-900	390	24,490
2032	41,100	21,500	33,000	700	-1,000	396	28,296

Reported financial facts

Latest quarterly actuals are Q2 FY2027, ended July31 2026; next Q3 release is scheduled November19. Historical/quarterly data and October note financing are preserved in sources_json. Adjusted EPS guidance is not treated as GAAP NI, and company FCF is not treated as equity FCFE.

Management guidance

FY2027 net-sales +4–5% cc, adjusted operating income +7–8.5%, adjusted EPS $2.80–2.87. October note prospectus permits refinancing/general corporate uses.

AI forecast assumptions

Five full fiscal years FY2028–FY2032 (ending January31) with company-specific earnings, D&A, capex, working-capital, debt/lease financing and minority-investment hypotheses. A 3% minority share of net investment is explicitly added back after common NI; this is a modeling approximation rather than an audited subsidiary-level bridge. Rate scenarios are nominal illustrative hypotheses, not empirically calibrated cost-of-equity estimates.

Forecast timing

Remaining FY2027 stub cash flow is omitted. Each forecast full fiscal year is discounted at integer year-end using the existing app calculator; the first full FY2028 cash flow is approximately a year-end convention from valuation time, not exact-date discounting. Omission and timing are limitations.

Dilution

7,989m fixed diluted shares; no SBC addback and no forecast buyback shrinkage. Dividends/buybacks are equity distributions and not subtracted from FCFE.

Evidence against the thesis

Investment/FX/tax/refund effects distort GAAP earnings. H1 inventory and capex cash investment increased. Wage/tariff competition can prevent digital-margin leverage. Minority subsidiary investment allocation and refinancing/leasing assumptions can materially alter equity cash.

Confidence & limitations

Low-to-medium. Sourced reported facts/guidance high confidence; cash components, minority allocation and rate assumptions low confidence. AI estimate, no mandatory human gate; not a defensible market-calibrated signal.

Valuation Rules

FCFE=niCommon+da-capex-changeWC+netBorrowing+otherAdjustments; common equity discounted at cost of equity with no second debt deduction. All money inputs USD millions and shares millions.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed H1 FY2027 diluted weighted-average shares of 7,989m. Buybacks/issuance after July 2026 are not rolled into the denominator. SBC remains expensed in common NI with no separate SBC addback; this fixed-diluted approximation avoids forecasting a mechanical buyback benefit.

7989 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

reported_facts ↗

Published 2026-08-28 · Report Q2/H1 FY2027 ended 2026-07-31

reported_facts_and_management_guidance ↗

Published 2026-08-20 · Report Q2 FY2027 / FY2027 outlook

historical_reported_facts ↗

Published 2026-04-23 · Report FY2026 ended 2026-01-31 with FY2025/FY2024 comparison

official_material_financing_event ↗

Published 2026-10-23 · Report October 2026 debt issuance

management_financing_intention ↗

Published 2026-10-21 · Report October 2026 notes offering

company_calendar ↗

Published 2026-10-30 accessed · Report Future FY2027 Q3

Company news

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Walmart (WMT) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

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Walmart’s Robots Are Struggling With Jobs Humans Do Easily. For Workers in Their 50s, Staying on the Payroll Could Be Worth More Than Another 401(k) Catch-Up

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:05:00 +0000

Target Trades at a Fraction of Walmart's Valuation. Is the Discount Deserved?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:02:00 +0000

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 15:49:00 +0000

FTC orders Target, Walmart to provide details in personalized pricing inquiry

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 15:27:00 +0000

Walmart, Eli Lilly Join 38 Companies Opposing OKX-ICE Tokenized Stocks

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

$566.42

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$59.48

BASE · USD / SHARE$189.76

BULL · USD / SHARE$456.32

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-198.5%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

Model assumption needs revision

All scenarios use1979m shares including all320m contingent warrants against1659m reported base; review vesting and scenario consistency. Denominator alone implies~16.2%lower per-share value, not a complete model correction.

Keep this scenario estimate separate from a conclusion that the stock is overvalued.

The research behind the number

AMD is transitioning from CPU/client and embedded exposure toward a larger AI accelerator and rack-scale business. This draft explicitly forecasts annual earnings, reinvestment and working capital rather than extrapolating a generic FCF growth rate.

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 2.5%base · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 3.0%bull · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 3.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $59.48 / share

AI-hypothesis: slower Instinct adoption, continued software and packaging constraints and export restrictions; revenue rises modestly from an assumed48,000m2026 reference, recurring after-tax margins stay15-18%. Investment remains above depreciation initially. A11.5% equity return and2.5% terminal growth are judgmental risk assumptions, not market-calibrated CAPM estimates.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+8,250

Depreciation+2,000

Capital expenditure-2,750

Working capital-700

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 47.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	8,250	2,000	2,750	700	-1,000	5,800
2028	9,600	2,100	3,000	500	0	8,200
2029	10,710	2,200	2,835	300	0	9,775
2030	11,220	2,300	2,640	300	0	10,580
2031	11,730	2,400	2,415	300	0	11,415
2032	12,960	2,400	2,160	300	0	12,900
2033	13,500	2,400	2,250	300	0	13,350
2034	14,040	2,400	2,340	300	0	13,800
2035	14,580	2,400	2,430	300	0	14,250
2036	15,120	2,400	2,520	300	0	14,700

2027 adjustment: Hypothetical2027 cash timing for the announced1,000m Meta equity investment; no value for the acquired security is separately added, a conservative omission.

Base · Central case $189.76 / share

AI-hypothesis: CPU share gains and staged Helios/Instinct scaling drive2027-2030 growth before slowing to mid-single digits. Net margin20-25% assumes mix and operating leverage; it is not management guidance and excludes extrapolation of investment gains. Working capital absorbs8% of incremental revenue. Cost of equity10.5%, terminal3% are disclosed analyst judgments.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+13,000

Depreciation+2,500

Capital expenditure-3,250

Working capital-1,360

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 57.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	13,000	2,500	3,250	1,360	-1,000	9,890
2028	18,040	2,900	4,100	1,360	0	15,480
2029	22,770	3,300	4,455	1,360	0	20,255
2030	27,600	3,600	4,600	1,280	0	25,320
2031	31,605	3,800	4,515	1,120	0	29,770
2032	35,250	4,000	4,230	960	0	34,060
2033	37,750	4,200	4,530	800	0	36,620
2034	40,000	4,400	4,800	720	0	38,880
2035	42,000	4,600	5,040	640	0	40,920
2036	44,000	4,800	5,280	640	0	42,880

2027 adjustment: Hypothetical2027 cash timing for the announced1,000m Meta equity investment; no value for the acquired security is separately added, a conservative omission.

Bull · Optimistic case $456.32 / share

AI-hypothesis: multi-customer rack-scale programs convert into sustained large-volume deliveries and stronger ROCm economics, with29% mature after-tax margin. This aggressive path is neither contracted revenue nor a forecast AMD has issued. Capex and working capital grow with the ramp. Equity return9.5%, terminal3.5% remain sensitive discretionary assumptions.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+17,600

Depreciation+3,500

Capital expenditure-4,800

Working capital-3,200

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 3.50% · Terminal value 65.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	17,600	3,500	4,800	3,200	-1,000	12,100
2028	28,750	4,500	6,900	3,500	0	22,850
2029	41,850	5,500	8,525	4,000	0	34,825
2030	53,200	6,200	9,500	3,500	0	46,400
2031	62,700	6,700	9,900	3,000	0	56,500
2032	71,050	7,100	9,800	2,500	0	65,850
2033	76,850	7,300	9,275	2,000	0	72,875
2034	81,780	7,500	9,870	1,700	0	77,710
2035	85,840	7,700	10,360	1,400	0	81,780
2036	89,320	7,900	10,780	1,200	0	85,240

2027 adjustment: Hypothetical2027 cash timing for the announced1,000m Meta equity investment; no value for the acquired security is separately added, a conservative omission.

As Of

2026-10-30T02:53:00Z

Facts Vs Estimates

The source summaries are reported facts or dated management statements. Every2027-2036 forecast number, risk premium, margin, investment timing and terminal assumption is an AI hypothesis. The48,000m2026 revenue reference is an estimate, not reported FY2026 sales.

Drivers

Instinct/Helios deployment conversion versus testing and commercial milestones
EPYC market share, ROCm adoption and competitive price pressure
Supply prepayments/inventory and capex intensity during rack-scale expansion
Export restrictions, strategic equity commitments and customer warrant dilution

Financing policy

Net borrowing is explicitly zero in each forecast year: assumes maturing debt is refinanced one-for-one and investments are internally funded. This is a financing hypothesis, not absence of debt; no debt is subtracted after FCFE discounting. Interest/taxes are embedded in recurring NI margins. Dividends and buybacks are distributions and are not deducted.

Sbc Policy

SBC remains an economic expense in recurring net margins and receives no addback. Fixed1,979m shares assumes full customer-warrant dilution from inception; it is intentionally conservative and is not a current diluted-share statement.

Limitations

Unreviewed low-confidence draft, not a recommendation; replace after November3 earnings.
Exact as-of stub and current share/option valuation absent; full warrant vesting assumed even in bear case may understate per-share values.
Cost of equity uses scenario judgments, not freshly calibrated risk-free rate, beta and ERP.
The10-Q disclosed up to5,000m conditional investment commitments through2028 and9,500m future lease payments; timing/overlap with later announcements is unresolved. Those commitments are not fully scheduled here.
World Labs/Taalas transaction financing and economics are not modeled until terms are reconciled.
Nonoperating investments/cash are not valued separately; strategic purchases have no terminal recovery addback. The draft can undercapture financial-asset value.
Future debt maturities, customer warrant accounting and acquisition-related amortization need a full reconciliation before approval.
Final-year FCFE is extended into perpetuity; mature cash conversion and reinvestment assumptions are a major sensitivity.

Confidence & limitations

low; company-specific hypothetical draft, numerically checked but not investment-reviewed

Share count & valuation basis

Conservative fixed-share approximation: reported Q2 diluted weighted average1,659m plus all320m potential OpenAI/Meta warrant shares=1,979m. Full vesting is an analyst assumption, not current GAAP dilution. Ignores tranche timing and future SBC net issuance; ongoing SBC is retained as economic cost in NI, not added back. No repurchase benefit or option proceeds credited.

1979 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

reported_and_guidance ↗

reported ↗

management_announcement ↗

calendar ↗

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:44:00 +0000

AMD faces high expectations as Jefferies sees limited near-term upside

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:12:27 +0000

Is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Cheap As Meta Expands Its AI Partnership?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 18:27:33 +0000

AMD Has Ripped 170% This Year: Is It Too Late to Buy?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 16:04:12 +0000

AMD Stock Outlook: AMD's Meta Deal Boosts AI Growth Prospects

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 15:33:19 +0000

The Same $10,000 in AMD and Nvidia Could Produce Very Different Results by 2030

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 15:07:54 +0000

Walmart, Eli Lilly and Cigna File Objections to ICE and OKX’s Tokenized Stock Venue

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

V Visa Inc

$410.54

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:03.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$142.45

BASE · USD / SHARE$243.97

BULL · USD / SHARE$377.34

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-68.3%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Visa's payment-processing network grows with payment volumes, cross-border commerce and services, while incentive renewal costs and litigation cash affect conversion into distributable equity cash. This AI estimate forecasts net revenue/margin, technology spending, noncash working capital, acquisition funding and net debt policy separately.

bear · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.0% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $142.45 / share

All future figures are explicit AI hypotheses. Payments volume and cross-border growth slow as client-incentive renewals outpace pricing; lower net margins retain ordinary litigation charges/SBC. Incremental legal cash above forecast provisions and more reinvestment reduce FCFE. No blanket percentage-of-GAAP-CFO growth is used. Working capital excludes litigation and cash/debt, and nets incentive accrual versus cash timing rather than double-subtracting client incentives. NI contains ordinary taxes/interest/SBC. Rates are illustrative nominal scenario assumptions, not claimed beta/risk-free/ERP-derived market estimates; further calibration needed. Terminal growth reflects sustainable nominal mature-payments growth and is below equity cost.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+24,067

Depreciation+1,500

Capital expenditure-2,100

Working capital-700

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-4,400

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 69.4% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	24,067	1,500	2,100	700	-1,000	-4,400	17,367
2028	25,511	1,580	2,250	750	-1,000	-1,500	21,591
2029	26,513	1,660	2,400	800	-500	-1,000	23,473
2030	27,839	1,740	2,550	850	-500	-800	24,879
2031	28,654	1,820	2,700	900	-500	-500	25,874

2027 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $2,400m BioCatch consideration plus $2000m legal cash payments in excess of provisions already reflected in NI; do not double subtract the provision.

2028 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $1500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2029 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $1000m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2030 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $800m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2031 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

Base · Central case $243.97 / share

All future figures are explicit AI hypotheses. Net revenue growth moderates from FY2026's15% as processing/payment volumes and cross-border transactions remain healthy but client incentives absorb more economics. Modest margin leverage, rising technology investment and neutral net deleveraging drive earnings-to-FCFE. BioCatch and legacy legal cash are explicit uses. Working capital excludes litigation and cash/debt, and nets incentive accrual versus cash timing rather than double-subtracting client incentives. NI contains ordinary taxes/interest/SBC. Rates are illustrative nominal scenario assumptions, not claimed beta/risk-free/ERP-derived market estimates; further calibration needed. Terminal growth reflects sustainable nominal mature-payments growth and is below equity cost.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+26,240

Depreciation+1,550

Capital expenditure-2,000

Working capital-450

Net borrowing-500

Other adjustments-3,600

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 76.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	26,240	1,550	2,000	450	-500	-3,600	21,240
2028	29,144	1,700	2,150	500	-500	-700	26,994
2029	31,767	1,850	2,300	550	-500	-500	29,767
2030	34,309	2,000	2,450	600	-500	-500	32,259
2031	36,710	2,150	2,600	650	-500	-500	34,610

2027 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $2,400m BioCatch consideration plus $1200m legal cash payments in excess of provisions already reflected in NI; do not double subtract the provision.

2028 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $700m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2029 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2030 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2031 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

Bull · Optimistic case $377.34 / share

All future figures are explicit AI hypotheses. Strong cross-border/e-commerce and value-added services sustain above-volume net revenue growth; network scale improves margins despite incentives. Faster cash conversion limits working capital needs. Continuing acquisitions and initial BioCatch funding remain cash deductions rather than free growth. Working capital excludes litigation and cash/debt, and nets incentive accrual versus cash timing rather than double-subtracting client incentives. NI contains ordinary taxes/interest/SBC. Rates are illustrative nominal scenario assumptions, not claimed beta/risk-free/ERP-derived market estimates; further calibration needed. Terminal growth reflects sustainable nominal mature-payments growth and is below equity cost.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+27,734

Depreciation+1,600

Capital expenditure-1,950

Working capital-250

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-2,900

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.00% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 81.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	27,734	1,600	1,950	250	0	-2,900	24,234
2028	31,931	1,780	2,100	300	0	-500	30,811
2029	35,772	1,960	2,250	350	-250	-500	34,382
2030	39,711	2,140	2,400	400	-250	-500	38,301
2031	43,284	2,320	2,550	450	-250	-500	41,854

2027 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $2,400m BioCatch consideration plus $500m legal cash payments in excess of provisions already reflected in NI; do not double subtract the provision.

2028 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2029 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2030 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

2031 adjustment: AI cash-use hypothesis: $500m total recurring acquisitions/strategic investments and any legacy legal cash excess; ordinary legal expense remains in NI. No SBC add-back.

As Of

2026-10-30

Reported financial facts

FY2026 GAAP NI23,504m, D&A1,403m, capex1,671m and CFO23,728m provide the annual baseline. Fixed diluted Class-A-equivalent share denominator1,907m. These are published facts; future years are not.

Management guidance

BioCatch $2,400m cash agreement expected to close by FY27Q2, subject to conditions. No inferred non-GAAP EPS guidance is substituted for GAAP common NI.

Forecast Mechanics

Scenario
bear
Net Revenue Growth
- 0.07
- 0.06
- 0.05
- 0.05
- 0.04
Net Income Margin
- 0.49
- 0.49
- 0.485
- 0.485
- 0.48
All Forecast Components Are AIHypotheses
true
Scenario
base
Net Revenue Growth
- 0.11
- 0.1
- 0.09
- 0.08
- 0.07
Net Income Margin
- 0.515
- 0.52
- 0.52
- 0.52
- 0.52
All Forecast Components Are AIHypotheses
true
Scenario
bull
Net Revenue Growth
- 0.14
- 0.13
- 0.11
- 0.1
- 0.09
Net Income Margin
- 0.53
- 0.54
- 0.545
- 0.55
- 0.55
All Forecast Components Are AIHypotheses
true

Noncash Working Capital

Positive changeWC is cash investment. Includes receivables/payables/settlement netting and net client-incentive timing. Litigation accrual movement is excluded and explicitly reconciled via otherAdjustments to avoid double counting.

Financing

Net borrowing includes debt issuance less repayment only. Dividends/buybacks are equity distributions, not FCFE expenses. No net debt/cash bridge is subtracted after equity discounting.

Dilution

Fixed diluted Class-A-equivalent count; no buyback-driven denominator reduction. SBC retained as expense in NI, not added back. Further issuance/escrow conversion changes remain a limitation.

Forecast timing

FY2027-FY2031 full annual years, calculator annual year-end discounting; elapsed first-month/stub timing not separately modeled.

Confidence & limitations

Medium historical evidence; low-to-medium future forecast confidence. Nominal cost-of-equity/terminal rates are illustrative scenario hypotheses pending market calibration, not a defensible buy/sell signal.

Evidence against the thesis

Travel/cross-border mix, client incentives, antitrust/MDL litigation, legal cash timing, regulation and deal integration may undercut growth or margins. FY2026 net income included exceptional tax/investment/charity/legal effects; future margins are normalized hypotheses, not mechanically repeated GAAP ratios.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed FY2026 diluted Class A-equivalent weighted-average claims: 1,907 million, including the assumed conversion of other share classes/participating securities under Visa's EPS convention. No forecast buyback reduction or extra SBC add-back. FY2026 SBC remains an economic expense in forecast NI; future net dilution/buybacks and changes in class conversion ratios are approximated by this fixed diluted denominator.

1907 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Visa FY2026 Q4 and full-year results ↗

Published 2026-10-27 · Report Year ended 2026-09-30

NI 23,504; D&A1,403; CFO23,728; capex1,671; diluted Class A-equivalent shares1,907m (Q4:1,882m); debt proceeds2,995 and repayment5,565 (all USDm). Payment volume grew9%, cross-border ex-intra-Europe12%, processed transactions9%. Client incentive accrual18,317 vs cash17,705; accrued-litigation cash movement -2,040. BioCatch signed for $2,400m cash, expected by FY27Q2 subject to approvals.

Visa FY2025 annual report ↗

Published 2025-11-06 · Report FY2023-FY2025

NI2025/24/23:20,058/19,743/17,273; CFO23,059/19,950/20,755; D&A1,220/1,034/943; capex1,482/1,257/1,059 (USDm). FY2025 net debt issuance3,924. Incentive cash timing and litigation are material cash-flow adjustments. Diluted EPS uses as-converted claims, not Class A legal share count alone.

Visa June2026 quarterly report ↗

Published 2026-07-29 · Report Quarter and nine months ended2026-06-30

Reviewed interim financial statements, share conversion structure, litigation disclosures and debt/liquidity before year-end earnings. FY2026 earnings release is later information and controls current annual baseline.

Fiscal fourth quarter and full-year results announcement ↗

Published 2026-10-27 · Report FY2026

Confirms official release/publication and management webcast date.

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:56:00 +0000

Visa vs. Block: Which Digital Payments Stock Has More Upside?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:54:00 +0000

Will ditching the ‘honor all cards’ rule matter?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 12:45:00 +0000

Visa Reports Tenfold Increase In Stablecoin Settlements

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 04:52:48 +0000

Visa: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 04:01:00 +0000

Visa's Stablecoin Volume Grew 10x in a Year: Which Stablecoins Benefit?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Wed, 28 Oct 2026 18:36:07 +0000

Visa: Fiscal Q4 Earnings Snapshot

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

XOM ExxonMobil Holdings Corp.

$183.29

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:02:45.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$47.04

BASE · USD / SHARE$95.48

BULL · USD / SHARE$164.51

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-92.0%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

ExxonMobil’s low-cost Guyana/Permian growth can support cash generation, but Q2 scarcity-driven earnings should not become a perpetual baseline. Base FCFE normalizes commodity margins and funds $30-32bn annual PP&E investment. This pre-Q3 AI estimate must refresh after today’s scheduled release; confidence moderate-low.

bear · Equity cost 12.0% · Terminal 1.0%base · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 2.0%bull · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $47.04 / share

AI downside: liquids normalize to a weak $55-60/bbl Brent regime, chemical oversupply persists, and projects require maintenance capital before contributing. NI is below2025 despite volumes; gradual recovery does not assume Q2 scarcity margins persist.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+24,000

Depreciation+28,000

Capital expenditure-31,000

Working capital-2,000

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-2,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 12.00% · Terminal growth 1.00% · Terminal value 63.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	24,000	28,000	31,000	2,000	-2,000	-2,000	15,000
2028	25,000	28,500	31,000	1,500	-1,000	-2,000	18,000
2029	27,000	29,000	31,000	1,000	0	-2,000	22,000
2030	28,000	29,500	32,000	1,000	0	-2,000	22,500
2031	29,000	30,000	32,000	1,000	0	-2,000	24,000

2027 adjustment: Explicit AI net recurring cash correction: net affiliate investment/advances, minority cash leakage net of NI attribution, taxes/pensions/other noncash differences and contingent payments; negative conservative allowance, not a reported line or unexplained balancing plug. No asset-sale windfall, SBC add-back, dividends or repurchases.

2028 adjustment: Explicit AI net recurring cash correction: net affiliate investment/advances, minority cash leakage net of NI attribution, taxes/pensions/other noncash differences and contingent payments; negative conservative allowance, not a reported line or unexplained balancing plug. No asset-sale windfall, SBC add-back, dividends or repurchases.

2029 adjustment: Explicit AI net recurring cash correction: net affiliate investment/advances, minority cash leakage net of NI attribution, taxes/pensions/other noncash differences and contingent payments; negative conservative allowance, not a reported line or unexplained balancing plug. No asset-sale windfall, SBC add-back, dividends or repurchases.

2030 adjustment: Explicit AI net recurring cash correction: net affiliate investment/advances, minority cash leakage net of NI attribution, taxes/pensions/other noncash differences and contingent payments; negative conservative allowance, not a reported line or unexplained balancing plug. No asset-sale windfall, SBC add-back, dividends or repurchases.

2031 adjustment: Explicit AI net recurring cash correction: net affiliate investment/advances, minority cash leakage net of NI attribution, taxes/pensions/other noncash differences and contingent payments; negative conservative allowance, not a reported line or unexplained balancing plug. No asset-sale windfall, SBC add-back, dividends or repurchases.

Base · Central case $95.48 / share

AI central hypothesis: $65-75/bbl Brent cycle, normalized refining and chemical margins, incremental Guyana/Permian output and savings. NI grows with asset mix rather than extrapolating Q2 exceptional profits. Capex stays near/above2026 guidance as project portfolio matures.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+35,000

Depreciation+28,000

Capital expenditure-30,000

Working capital-1,000

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-1,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 68.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	35,000	28,000	30,000	1,000	-1,000	-1,500	29,500
2028	37,000	28,500	31,000	1,000	0	-1,500	32,000
2029	39,000	29,000	31,000	1,000	0	-1,500	34,500
2030	41,000	29,500	32,000	1,000	0	-1,500	36,000
2031	42,000	30,000	32,000	1,000	0	-1,500	37,500

Bull · Optimistic case $164.51 / share

AI upside: $80-90/bbl Brent plus sustained integrated margins, timely project startups and strong low-cost volume conversion. Higher investment and WC absorb some earnings. This is a favorable cycle scenario, not management guidance or a prediction of geopolitical prices.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+46,000

Depreciation+28,500

Capital expenditure-30,000

Working capital-2,000

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 73.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	46,000	28,500	30,000	2,000	-1,000	41,500
2028	50,000	29,500	31,000	2,000	-1,000	45,500
2029	54,000	30,500	32,000	1,500	-1,000	50,000
2030	56,000	31,500	33,000	1,500	-1,000	52,000
2031	58,000	32,500	34,000	1,500	-1,000	54,000

Reported financial facts

FY2025 common NI28,844; D&A25,993; CFO51,970; PP&E additions28,358; noncash-WC cash use7,728 (USDmillions). FY2024 CFO55,022 and PP&E24,306. H1 2026 common NI18,708; D&A15,460; CFO32,260; PP&E12,997; WC cash use3,857; net cash borrowing -829. Q2 shares4,174m. These are reported, not AI forecasts.

Management guidance

2026 cash-capex plan $27-29bn is a company non-GAAP definition, not identical to PP&E. July release targets Permian9% production CAGR through2030 and Guyana FPSO startup4Q26. October16 incomplete Q3 outlook indicates +$4.4bn margin effects versusQ2 and -$1.3bn liquids-price effect; neither is a total-Q3 earnings forecast.

AI forecast assumptions

All2027-31 component arrays and oil regimes are AI hypotheses, not reported facts or a revenue CAGR applied to generic FCF. Base NI35→42bn reflects volume/mix and normal margins; D&A28→30bn reflects enlarged asset base, investment30→32bn sustains production, WC1bn annually assumes continued operating investment. Other cash correction -1.5bn is a disclosed conservative net allowance; it requires revision with detailed annual minority/affiliate cash information. Bear liquidity pays down debt; base repays1bn then neutral refinancing; bull does not manufacture borrowing-led value.

Financing & dilution

No debt subtraction after FCFE discounting. Existing interest/tax are embedded in NI. Debt issuance less cash principal repaid enters netBorrowing; debt-neutral steady state. Dividends and buybacks distribute FCFE and are not subtracted. Fixed shares give no automatic upside for continued repurchases. No acquisition debt or future SBC benefit assumed.

Discount rate & long-run growth

NYU October1 2026 market inputs: nominal USD Treasury5.29%, ERP4.20%. AI beta1.20 (not a measured XOM regression) gives10.33%, rounded central10.5%; bear12%, bull9.5% are risk sensitivities. These are sourced monthly anchors plus explicit hypotheses, not contemporaneous observed CAPM estimates. Long-run nominalg1%/2%/2.5% allows mature hydrocarbon volume flat/down to modestly positive, with Fed2% PCE goal as inflation context; no oil-spike extrapolation. Allg<Ke.

What could go wrong

Oil/refining windfalls may reverse faster than project cash gains; Q2 cannot be annualized safely.
Guyana/Permian startup, reservoir/depletion, geopolitical disruptions, taxes and carbon policy can raise reinvestment.
Company cash-capex differs from PP&E; affiliate/minority cash adjustments are material and forecast net allowances are uncertain.
Fixed shares, annual-end discounting and high terminal dependence limit precision.

Evidence against the thesis

Q2 earnings14.5bn, record Permian output and October outlook positive margin effects could make normalized base too cautious; FY2025 investment exceeded cash generation available after dividends/buybacks, so growing output does not guarantee distributable cash growth. None of the October news candidates on dividend or travel cancellations is treated as established model-changing financial evidence without official confirmation.

Confidence & limitations

Moderate-low on long-run economics; high on extracted report components. Q3 actuals not available at06:10UTC (14:10Taipei), scheduled10:30UTC. Costofequity beta and all forecasts remain hypotheses. Numerical validation is not research verification.

Forecast timing

Forecasts are full calendar2027-2031, calculator uses year-end periods1-5. This approximates a late2026 anchor and ignores about2months to2027 start, mildly overvaluing versus exactOct30 timing. No historical2026 full-year cash is counted as future cash. Refresh Q3 and improve stub timing before treating small gaps as meaningful.

Historical cash-flow reconciliation

2025

Ni Common: 28844
Da: 25993
Capex: 28358
Change WC: 7728
Net Borrowing: 53
Other Adjustments: 2583
Adjustment Reason: Other2583=aggregate operating correction3941 + NCI NI920 - net investing advances727 - NCI dividends935 - NCI interest changes704 + project NCI inflow88. Asset-sale proceeds3158 excluded; buybacks/dividends common not subtracted. Netborrowing2311-1108+2359-5404+1895=53.
Fcfe: 21387

2026H1

Ni Common: 18708
Da: 15460
Capex: 12997
Change WC: 3857
Net Borrowing: -829
Other Adjustments: 1576
Adjustment Reason: Other1576=operating1304+NCI NI645+net advance collections23-NCI dividends332+NCI equitychanges61-contingent125. Borrowing894-135-5500+3912=-829. Excludesassetproceeds649.
Fcfe: 18061

Evidence & model checks

AI evidence review reconciled common NI versus consolidated CFO, checked WC sign, PP&E versus company cashcapex, NCI/affiliate cash leakage, borrowing and fixed-share policy. Scenario ordering, positive terminalFCFE andg<Ke checked separately. No bank industrial-model issue. No prior XOM researched model was present.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed 4,174 million Q2 2026 weighted-average common shares, including unvested restricted shares; diluted EPS equals basic per Note2. No future buyback share-count reduction or issuance assumed. Conservative approximation to current diluted claims, not a current point-in-time share registry. All cash figures USDmillions; per-share USD.

4174 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

official_10K ↗

Published 2026-02-18 · Report 2025-12-31

FY2025 and comparative FY2024 cash flows, debt maturity and equity ownership reconciliation

official_10Q ↗

· Report 2026-06-30

H1 cashflow, NI common, Q2 shares, financing and capex guidance; accessed2026-10-30, filing publication date not confirmed

official_earnings ↗

Published 2026-07-31 · Report 2026-06-30

Operational growth and management plans

management_outlook_not_results ↗

Published 2026-10-16 · Report 2026-09-30

Q3 market/planned impacts, explicitly incomplete

official_calendar ↗

Published 2026-10-16

Q3 release scheduled 2026-10-30 05:30 CT; not yet released at research cutoff 06:10 UTC

academic_market_inputs ↗

· Report 2026-10-01

USD Treasury anchor5.29%, impliedERP4.20%; month-old not Oct30 spot

policy_anchor ↗

Published 2025-08-22

2% long-run PCE inflation goal, not XOM forecast

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:49:00 +0000

Exxon Will Probably Hike Its Dividend. The Question Is How Much.

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 18:25:46 +0000

Exxon and Chevron cancel UAE oil show trips amid safety concerns - report

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 13:55:07 +0000

Dear ExxonMobil Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for October 30

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 12:06:25 +0000

Jim Cramer Says Chevron Beats Exxon. Earnings Will Put That to the Test

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 12:00:10 +0000

William Blair launches coverage on U.S. oil majors, sees value in cost leaders

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 11:47:02 +0000

Exxon Mobil Stock Is Up 55% in 2026. Is Its Dividend Still Safe?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

JNJ Johnson & Johnson

$275.20

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:02.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$69.71

BASE · USD / SHARE$147.80

BULL · USD / SHARE$238.17

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-86.2%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

JNJ 的估值取決於新藥與心血管醫材成長能否抵銷 Stelara 流失，以及 talc 和外部研發投資對現金的消耗。本模型逐年預估正常化 common NI、折舊攤銷、廠房投資、營運資金、償債與訴訟／管線現金，不把 adjusted EPS 直接當 FCFE。

bear · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.0% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $69.71 / share

AI bear case: Stelara biosimilar erosion and pricing/reimbursement pressure largely offset new oncology/immunology launches; MedTech grows slowly and margin gains are limited. Litigation payments, external pipeline spending and factory investment constrain cash conversion. Earnings are normalized GAAP-like common earnings after amortization, tax, interest and SBC, excluding new one-off legacy-settlement accruals. Nominal rates are sensitivity hypotheses, not measured beta-based estimates.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+20,000

Depreciation+8,000

Capital expenditure-6,500

Working capital-1,500

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-8,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 69.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	20,000	8,000	6,500	1,500	-2,000	-8,000	10,000
2028	20,500	8,200	6,800	1,600	-2,000	-5,000	13,300
2029	21,000	8,400	7,100	1,700	-1,500	-3,500	15,600
2030	21,500	8,600	7,400	1,800	-1,500	-3,000	16,400
2031	22,000	8,800	7,700	1,900	-1,500	-2,500	17,200

2027 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 4500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 3500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2028 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 2000m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 3000m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2029 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 1500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 2000m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2030 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 1000m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 2000m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2031 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 2000m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

Base · Central case $147.80 / share

AI base case: Innovative Medicine revenue is hypothesized to rise from $73B FY2027 to $94B FY2031 as oncology, Tremfya and neuroscience offset Stelara; MedTech rises from $33B to $42B through cardiovascular/electrophysiology and installed-system growth. These segment revenues support common net income of $23.0B to $30.3B after interest/tax/SBC/amortization. The near-term earnings level is below management adjusted-EPS-implied earnings because adjusted EPS excludes intangible amortization and special items. Cash capex and working-capital uses grow with operations; legacy legal cash and external pipeline/deal cash are deducted separately, not assumed free. Nominal cost of equity 9% and terminal growth 2.5% are explicit sensitivity assumptions, not management guidance or market calibration.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+23,000

Depreciation+8,200

Capital expenditure-6,300

Working capital-1,000

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-7,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 76.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	23,000	8,200	6,300	1,000	-2,000	-7,000	14,900
2028	24,600	8,300	6,600	1,100	-1,500	-3,500	20,200
2029	26,400	8,400	6,900	1,200	-1,000	-2,500	23,200
2030	28,300	8,500	7,200	1,250	-1,000	-2,000	25,350
2031	30,300	8,600	7,500	1,300	-1,000	-2,000	27,100

2027 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 4000m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 3000m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2028 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 1500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 2000m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2029 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 1000m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 1500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2030 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 1500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2031 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 1500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

Bull · Optimistic case $238.17 / share

AI bull case: faster uptake across oncology, immunology and neuroscience plus MedTech innovation drives stronger operating leverage, with recurring earnings after amortization rising to $36.6B. New factories require higher capex, but collections/inventory cash needs remain controlled. Legacy litigation resolves faster; external pipeline investment remains funded. This depends on trial/regulatory success, reimbursement and execution. Lower equity discount rate/higher terminal growth are nominal optimistic sensitivities only.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+25,000

Depreciation+8,300

Capital expenditure-6,400

Working capital-800

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-6,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.00% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 81.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	25,000	8,300	6,400	800	-1,000	-6,000	19,100
2028	27,500	8,500	6,800	900	-1,000	-3,000	24,300
2029	30,300	8,700	7,200	1,000	-1,000	-2,000	27,800
2030	33,300	8,900	7,600	1,100	-1,000	-1,500	31,000
2031	36,600	9,100	8,000	1,200	-1,000	-1,500	34,000

2027 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 3500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 2500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2028 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 1000m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 2000m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2029 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 500m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 1500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2030 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 0m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 1500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

2031 adjustment: AI cash reserve: 0m legacy litigation/settlement cash (new accrual expense excluded from normalized NI), plus 1500m external pipeline/deal/capitalized-license cash whose acquisition charges are excluded from normalized NI. Cash reserve is not a reported payment schedule. Do not also deduct these costs from NI or changeWC.

Facts And Guidance

Historical figures and stated guidance are catalogued in sources_json. No company-issued annual GAAP NI forecast is claimed.

AI forecast assumptions

All 2027–2031 amounts are scenario hypotheses, not reported facts. NI excludes new exceptional legacy settlement accruals and exceptional acquired-IPR&D/deal charges; cash reserves in otherAdjustments then deduct litigation settlements and external pipeline/deal spending. Ordinary operating R&D, defense expense, SBC, interest and tax remain in NI. D&A includes intangible amortization already deducted in NI. Noncash WC excludes cash, debt and litigation reserves to avoid double counting. Future debt repayments net refinancing are assumptions. No dividends or buybacks deducted from FCFE.

Forecast timing

Five full annual fiscal forecasts FY2027–FY2031; remaining FY2026 cash omitted. Annual year-end discounting, no net-debt subtraction or automatic cash addition. Values are per common share in USD.

Confidence & limitations

Low-to-medium: strong primary-source historical evidence; large uncertainty in legal cash, acquisition reinvestment, medical/regulatory execution and forecast rates. Rates are illustrative nominal sensitivities; beta/risk-free/ERP calibration remains a limitation, not an approval gate.

Evidence against the thesis

New products may disappoint or face price pressure; talc proposal may not become final; spin-off/separation economics and new deals can change future share/cash claims. Conservative omission of remaining FY2026 cash and fixed-share approximation are material. No normal percentage comparison to legacy proxy values.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed diluted approximation using reported Q3 2026 diluted weighted-average common shares, 2,448.6 million. No forecast buyback reduction; SBC remains expensed in NI and is not added back, avoiding a free-SBC cash benefit. Future dilution/buyback changes are not precisely modeled.

2448.6 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

JNJ Q3 2026 Form 10-Q ↗

Published 2026-10-21 · Report Nine months ended 2026-09-27

NI $10,979m; D&A $6,080m; CFO $18,850m; PP&E additions $3,732m. Receivables/inventories used $1,759m/$1,152m; payables/accruals supplied $1,449m. Debt net cash: 15,422-16,310-2,004=-2,892m. Q3 diluted shares 2,448.6m. Talc reserve PV about $9B, roughly half current. Firefly cost about $1B; Sail initial payments $0.8B and option about $2.6B.

JNJ FY2025 Form 10-K ↗

Published 2026-02-11 · Report Year ended 2025-12-28; comparative 2024/2023

2025 NI $26,804m, D&A $7,503m, CFO $24,530m, capex $4,832m, acquisitions $17,541m. 2024 CFO $24,266m and capex $4,424m. Historical earnings are distorted by talc reserve changes and Kenvue separation effects; not extrapolated mechanically.

JNJ Q3 2026 results and increased guidance ↗

Published 2026-10-13 · Report Q3 ended 2026-09-27; FY2026 guidance

Q3 sales $25,399m, Innovative Medicine $16,757m and MedTech $8,642m. FY26 reported sales guidance $101.0-101.4B and adjusted EPS $11.05-11.15; not GAAP net-income guidance. Q3 reported EPS $0.09 includes a large talc charge and deal effects; adjusted EPS $2.59. Stelara erosion offsets growing newer products.

Proposed ovarian talc resolution ↗

Published 2026-07-27 · Report Proposed future settlement

Conditional on at least 95% claim participation and other criteria; commitment $5.5B, first payment no more than $3B in 2027, no additional payments before 2028.

Company news

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FCFE · AI estimate

MA Mastercard Incorporated

$635.70

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:02.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$188.86

BASE · USD / SHARE$370.72

BULL · USD / SHARE$564.91

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-71.5%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Mastercard’s network scale and faster-growing services support durable earnings, but incentive prepayments, litigation and higher required returns limit equity value. AI scenarios forecast cash components individually rather than extending EPS growth into FCFE.

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 9.9% · Terminal 3.0%bull · Equity cost 9.1% · Terminal 3.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $188.86 / share

AI downside: payment-network growth slows to 5–7%, services to 8–10%; client incentives and litigation constrain cash conversion. Revenue path USD39/41.5/44.5/47.8/51.3bn and common NI margins43.6/42.2/41.6/41.2/40.7%. First-year legal/M&A cash reserve1500 then1000/700/700/700; these are stress hypotheses, not disclosed provisions.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+17,000

Depreciation+1,400

Capital expenditure-1,900

Working capital-2,500

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-1,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 67.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	17,000	1,400	1,900	2,500	-1,000	-1,500	11,500
2028	17,500	1,500	2,000	2,200	-500	-1,000	13,300
2029	18,500	1,600	2,100	2,000	0	-700	15,300
2030	19,700	1,700	2,200	1,800	0	-700	16,700
2031	20,900	1,800	2,300	1,700	0	-700	18,000

2027 adjustment: Explicit AI cash reserve for recurring acquisitions and legal cash costs incremental to modeled normalized NI; no automatic legal provision add-back. Scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported obligations.

2028 adjustment: Explicit AI cash reserve for recurring acquisitions and legal cash costs incremental to modeled normalized NI; no automatic legal provision add-back. Scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported obligations.

2029 adjustment: Explicit AI cash reserve for recurring acquisitions and legal cash costs incremental to modeled normalized NI; no automatic legal provision add-back. Scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported obligations.

2030 adjustment: Explicit AI cash reserve for recurring acquisitions and legal cash costs incremental to modeled normalized NI; no automatic legal provision add-back. Scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported obligations.

2031 adjustment: Explicit AI cash reserve for recurring acquisitions and legal cash costs incremental to modeled normalized NI; no automatic legal provision add-back. Scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported obligations.

Base · Central case $370.72 / share

AI central: electronic-payment penetration, cross-border spending and services cross-sell support slowing revenue growth12/11/10/9/8% from an AI FY2026 USD37.2bn anchor. Revenue41.664/46.247/50.872/55.451/59.887bn; NI margins46.56/46.92/47.37/47.79/48.09%. Incentive reinvestment absorbs cash; no permanent debt issuance benefit. USD500m annual conservative M&A/legal cash reserve is an AI policy assumption, not guidance.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+19,400

Depreciation+1,450

Capital expenditure-1,650

Working capital-1,400

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.91% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 75.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	19,400	1,450	1,650	1,400	-500	17,300
2028	21,700	1,580	1,800	1,500	-500	19,480
2029	24,100	1,710	1,950	1,600	-500	21,760
2030	26,500	1,840	2,100	1,700	-500	24,040
2031	28,800	1,970	2,250	1,800	-500	26,220

Bull · Optimistic case $564.91 / share

AI upside: services and new flows retain strong momentum with network leverage. Revenue43/49/55/61/67bn and NI margins48.84/49.80/50.91/51.80/52.09%; not management forecasts. Moderate incentive reinvestment and USD300m yearly M&A/legal cash reserve remain. No separate premium assigned to unproven agentic or stablecoin revenue.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+21,000

Depreciation+1,500

Capital expenditure-1,700

Working capital-1,100

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-300

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.07% · Terminal growth 3.50% · Terminal value 79.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	21,000	1,500	1,700	1,100	-300	19,400
2028	24,400	1,690	1,900	1,200	-300	22,690
2029	28,000	1,880	2,100	1,300	-300	26,180
2030	31,600	2,070	2,300	1,400	-300	29,670
2031	34,900	2,260	2,500	1,500	-300	32,860

Reported financial facts

FY2025 NI14968, D&A1143, CFO17648; capex489 equipment+726 software=1215; debt1242−750=492 (USDm). 2024 CFO14780 and capex1194 show cash conversion varies. Q3’26 revenue9807 and GAAP NI4628; cross-border+11%, transactions+9%, services+19%. 9M’26 CFO11859 despite higher NI12898: prepayments4688 and legal payments537 weaken conversion. Capex667+474=1141; net debt proceeds5596−618=4978 must not be extrapolated indefinitely.

Management guidance

Oct29 deck maintains FY2026 low-teens revenue growth and high-end low-double-digit currency-neutral organic growth; these are management outlook, not the five-year model.

AI forecast assumptions

All2027–2031 components are AI forecasts. Base FY2026 revenue anchor37.2bn and NI about17.3bn are AI bridge estimates, not actual full-year results. First discounted period is full2027 paid at t=1; valuation uses approximate late2026/early2027 convention and excludes remaining2026 cash distribution, not a precise day-count valuation.

Working Capital

changeWC is net noncash operating reinvestment INCLUDING net customer incentive/prepayment investment after incentive amortization; do not add incentive amortization a second time. Settlement/customer restricted deposit flows are not treated as freely distributable owner capital. Future WC is positive1400→1800 base. Cash taxes and interest remain in NI. SBC is not added back. Acquisitions/legal reserve is separately negative otherAdjustments.

Financing

Base and bull refinance maturities with zero net new borrowing; bear reduces debt1000/500 first two years. Dividends/buybacks are distributions, not FCFE deductions. No debt subtraction or cash addition after equity discounting.

Discount rate & long-run growth

Nominal USD. Oct1 Damodaran trailing adjusted-payout ERP4.20% plus Treasury5.29%; beta is explicit AI assumption, NOT estimated observed beta: base1.10 yields9.91%, bull0.90 yields9.07%, bear11.5% adds regulatory/cycle stress. Not an Oct30 spot Treasury claim. Terminal2/3/3.5% reflects Fed longer-run2% inflation and conservative0/1/1.5% real company cash expansion; all below discount rates.

What could go wrong

Rebates outgrow gross drivers; antitrust/interchange regulation; consumer/travel downturn; account-to-account/stablecoin substitution; acquisition integration; adverse legal judgments.

Evidence against the thesis

Earnings momentum is not equivalent to cash momentum: 9M CFO fell versus12646 prior year. Official Q3 10-Q Note14 confirms October UK merchant complaints against MA of aboutGBP1.5bn plusGBP0.4bn; these are alleged damages, not adjudicated cash liabilities. Headline GBP5bn joint MA/Visa figure is not assigned wholly to Mastercard. US Block/Intuit aggregate single damages sought exceedUSD5bn, disputed and uncertain. Stress reserves do not purport to price every tail loss.

Confidence & limitations

Moderate on business direction and sourced historical inputs; low-to-moderate on multi-year cash reinvestment and legal outcomes; terminal valuation highly assumption-sensitive. No mandatory human gate, but calculated_draft is AI research, not verified fair value.

Review

Substantive AI review reconciled capex including software, prevented permanent debt issuance uplift and double counting customer incentive amortization, retained SBC cost, separated claims from losses, and checked rates/units/consecutiveyears.

Source Dates

Read2026-10-30; annualFY2025 filed2026-02-11; Q3/9M period2026-09-30 published2026-10-29. Rate evidence asofOct1/Sep16 explicitly older.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed Q3 2026 diluted weighted-average common shares 876 million from official Oct29 release/10-Q. Includes both common classes economically. Future buyback share shrinkage is not credited. SBC remains an economic expense in NI and is not added back; fixed diluted share approximation avoids assuming free dilution offsets.

876 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

official quarterly report ↗

· Report 2026-09-30

official annual report ↗

· Report 2025-12-31

official earnings release ↗

· Report 2026-09-30

management outlook ↗

academic rate framework ↗

macro projections ↗

Company news

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Mastercard (MA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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FCFE · AI estimate

ABBV Abbvie Inc

$290.79

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:04:11.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$52.68

BASE · USD / SHARE$127.23

BULL · USD / SHARE$225.58

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-128.6%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

AbbVie is rebuilding cash earnings around Skyrizi, Rinvoq and neuroscience as Humira and Imbruvica decline. Research draft models explicit recurring NI, amortization, cash contingent consideration, pipeline reinvestment and debt reduction; it is not a mechanical adjusted-EPS multiple.

bear · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $52.68 / share

AI hypothesis: immunology growth slows, Humira/Imbruvica erosion and pricing pressure persist, and pipeline acquisition spending produces limited offset. Higher cash reinvestment and 10.5% equity return reflect patent and execution uncertainty.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+12,474

Depreciation+7,600

Capital expenditure-2,425.5

Working capital-330

Net borrowing-3,000

Other adjustments-6,600

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 45.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	12,474	7,600	2,425.5	330	-3,000	-6,600	7,718.5
2028	12,972.96	7,100	2,522.52	277.2	-3,000	-6,700	7,573.24
2029	13,232.42	6,600	2,572.97	144.14	-2,000	-6,700	8,415.31
2030	12,864.85	6,100	2,572.97	0	-1,000	-6,600	8,791.88
2031	12,247.34	5,600	2,521.51	-147.03	0	-6,400	9,072.86
2032	12,002.39	5,100	2,471.08	-144.09	0	-6,100	8,675.4
2033	12,355.4	4,600	2,471.08	0	0	-5,800	8,684.32
2034	12,835.5	4,100	2,495.79	70.6	0	-5,500	8,869.11
2035	13,455.88	3,600	2,545.71	142.62	0	-5,200	9,167.55
2036	14,095.95	3,100	2,596.62	145.47	0	-4,900	9,553.86

2027 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4100 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2028 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4200 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2029 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4200 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2030 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4100 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2031 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 3900 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2032 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 3600 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2033 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 3300 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2034 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 3000 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2035 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 2700 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2036 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 2400 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

Base · Central case $127.23 / share

AI hypothesis: Skyrizi/Rinvoq and neuroscience continue offsetting legacy erosion; consolidated growth gradually fades to3%. Recurring margin rises as old acquisition amortization declines, while cash pipeline/licensing reserve and acquisition-contingent payments remain deducted. Cost of equity9.5% is an analyst sensitivity assumption, not a CAPM measurement.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+15,107.4

Depreciation+7,600

Capital expenditure-2,158.2

Working capital-594

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-6,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 54.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	15,107.4	7,600	2,158.2	594	-2,000	-6,000	11,955.2
2028	17,092.94	7,100	2,330.86	575.52	-2,000	-6,300	12,986.56
2029	19,120.79	6,600	2,494.02	543.87	-1,500	-6,600	14,582.9
2030	21,149.25	6,100	2,643.66	498.8	-1,000	-6,800	16,306.79
2031	22,669.36	5,600	2,775.84	440.61	-500	-6,900	17,652.91
2032	24,057.28	5,100	2,886.87	370.11	0	-6,900	19,000.3
2033	25,019.56	4,600	3,002.35	384.92	0	-6,800	19,432.29
2034	25,770.15	4,100	3,092.42	300.24	0	-6,600	19,877.49
2035	26,543.26	3,600	3,185.19	309.24	0	-6,400	20,248.83
2036	27,339.56	3,100	3,280.75	318.52	0	-6,200	20,640.29

2027 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4000 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2000. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2028 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4200 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2100. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2029 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4400 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2200. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2030 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4500 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2300. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2031 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4500 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2400. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2032 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4400 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2033 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4200 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2600. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2034 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 3900 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2700. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2035 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 3600 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2800. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2036 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 3300 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2900. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

Bull · Optimistic case $225.58 / share

AI hypothesis: immunology/neuroscience outperformance and successful pipeline launches support sustained high growth then convergence to3%. Scale and amortization rolloff improve recurring margins. Higher contingent payments and pipeline spending retain meaningful success-related cash costs;8.5% equity discount rate is optimistic.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+17,001.6

Depreciation+7,600

Capital expenditure-2,069.8

Working capital-792

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-6,400

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 63.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	17,001.6	7,600	2,069.76	792	-1,000	-6,400	14,339.84
2028	20,102.54	7,100	2,297.43	813.12	-1,000	-6,900	16,191.99
2029	23,466.64	6,600	2,527.18	820.51	-1,000	-7,400	18,318.95
2030	26,562.44	6,100	2,754.62	812.31	-500	-7,800	20,795.51
2031	29,749.93	5,600	2,974.99	787.04	0	-8,100	23,487.9
2032	32,400.86	5,100	3,183.24	743.75	0	-8,300	25,273.87
2033	34,947.45	4,600	3,374.24	682.12	0	-8,300	27,191.09
2034	36,694.82	4,100	3,542.95	602.54	0	-8,100	28,549.33
2035	38,162.61	3,600	3,684.67	506.14	0	-7,800	29,771.8
2036	39,307.49	3,100	3,795.21	394.79	0	-7,500	30,717.49

2027 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4200 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2200. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2028 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4600 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2300. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2029 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 5000 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2400. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2030 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 5300 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2500. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2031 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 5500 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2600. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2032 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 5600 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2700. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2033 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 5500 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2800. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2034 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 5200 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 2900. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2035 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4800 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 3000. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

2036 adjustment: Subtract cash acquisition-contingent consideration 4400 plus cash external-pipeline/licensing reinvestment reserve 3100. Recurring NI excludes fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D expense, so these cash amounts are deducted once; ordinary R&D and profit-sharing royalties stay in NI.

Facts Vs Estimates

Reported facts/guidance are only in sources. Every 2027–2036 forecast number is an AI hypothesis. FY2026 revenue reference $66,000m is an analyst bridge between H1/Q2 annualized revenue, not company guidance. Q3 release is due later today and must trigger a prompt refresh.

Accounting

NI_common is recurring earnings after interest/tax, ordinary R&D and SBC, including intangible amortization expense but excluding noncash acquisition-contingent fair-value remeasurement and acquired IPR&D/licensing expense. D&A adds back the included depreciation/amortization; otherAdjustments separately subtract cash contingent consideration and external pipeline reinvestment, avoiding silent omission of these cash claims. Historical GAAP NI is not presented as recurring NI.

Financing And Shares

Negative netBorrowing represents explicit assumed deleveraging; terminal nominal debt is constant. 1,773m H1 weighted diluted shares is a frozen approximation: no buyback uplift, no SBC addback and no explicit option/RSU issuance path. No cash addition or second debt subtraction.

Confidence & limitations

Low; financially coherent but unreviewed assumptions with high sensitivity to patent timing, acquisitions and contingent payments.

Evidence against the thesis

Immunology and neuroscience growth supports upside, but legacy-product declines and discretionary licensing/acquisitions threaten cash distributions.
Stronger Skyrizi sales also increase contingent cash payments; growth is not all shareholder cash.
Adjusted EPS guidance is non-GAAP and must not be equated to distributable cash.

Limitations

Q3 2026 earnings have not yet been released at as-of time; refresh once available.
No exact2026 stub-period valuation; first full forecast2027 discounted one year.
Discount rates are explicit sensitivity assumptions, not a freshly estimated CAPM.
No full product-by-product patent-expiry probability model or regulatory-capital requirement.
Fixed shares and netBorrowing are approximations, not announced policies.
Terminal pipeline reserve/contingent-payment sustainability needs further review; final-year FCFE then grows at terminal rate.

Share count & valuation basis

H1 2026 weighted-average diluted shares1,773m from Q2 release, frozen throughout; no forecast buyback benefit or SBC addback. Outstanding shares1,767.117285m at July27 provide cross-check.

1773 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

reported ↗

reported_and_guidance ↗

management_guidance ↗

reported ↗

event_calendar ↗

Company news

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FCFE · AI estimate

ORCL Oracle Corp.

$139.56

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:04:43.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE-$26.28

BASE · USD / SHARE$79.35

BULL · USD / SHARE$216.25

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-75.9%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Reported facts: Q1 FY2027 revenue and IaaS growth were strong, but capex exceeded operating cash flow and quarterly FCF was negative. Q1 CFO included large customer prepayments/deferred revenue, so it is not treated as normalized annual cash generation. Oracle issued 141m ATM shares in Q1. Management guidance: FY2027 revenue >=$90B and non-GAAP EPS $8.10; FY2030 revenue >=$225B, non-GAAP operating margin >=40%, non-GAAP EPS >=$21; capex peaks FY2027-FY2028, positive FCF in H2 FY2028, FY2029 FCF >=$30B, with additional $20B capital raising through FY2030 split between equity and gross debt. AI hypotheses: scenario GAAP net income, D&A, capex, working capital investment and debt financing are constructed to represent slower/base/faster capacity delivery and cash conversion; not company-issued GAAP forecasts. Base assumes capex falls after FY2028, cash earnings scale with contracted cloud capacity, and debt begins to be repaid in FY2030-FY2031. Share approximation includes anticipated dilution and conversion effects; not an exact forecast. Cost of equity and terminal growth are draft nominal assumptions requiring independent risk-free-rate, beta/ERP and long-run growth sourcing before research approval. Unreviewed draft, not an approved target or buy signal.

bear · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 10.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case -$26.28 / share

AI infrastructure demand converts more slowly to earnings, customer prepayments and vendor financing normalize, and Oracle incurs high reinvestment and modest net debt repayment after the peak buildout. FY27-FY31 figures are AI scenario hypotheses, not management guidance.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+18,000

Depreciation+14,000

Capital expenditure-90,000

Working capital-5,000

Net borrowing+5,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value -57.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	18,000	14,000	90,000	5,000	5,000	-58,000
2028	23,000	20,000	105,000	6,000	5,000	-63,000
2029	29,000	26,000	85,000	4,000	2,000	-32,000
2030	35,000	31,000	70,000	3,000	-2,000	-9,000
2031	40,000	35,000	60,000	3,000	-5,000	7,000

Base · Central case $79.35 / share

Cloud Infrastructure growth remains strong but moderates from Q1 FY27 exceptional rate; heavy FY27-FY28 capex is followed by a step-down, while earnings and cash conversion improve as contracted capacity is delivered. FY29 positive FCF direction is consistent with management outlook, but annual FCFE components remain AI hypotheses. Net borrowing is debt financing only; equity financing is reflected in diluted shares.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+22,000

Depreciation+16,000

Capital expenditure-95,000

Working capital-4,000

Net borrowing+8,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 131.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	22,000	16,000	95,000	4,000	8,000	-53,000
2028	32,000	24,000	115,000	7,000	7,000	-59,000
2029	46,000	30,000	90,000	5,000	3,000	-16,000
2030	59,000	35,000	75,000	4,000	-2,000	13,000
2031	72,000	40,000	65,000	4,000	-5,000	38,000

Bull · Optimistic case $216.25 / share

Oracle delivers contracted AI capacity quickly, converts large RPO into high-margin cloud earnings, and achieves the announced capex step-down and self-funded growth trajectory. This depends on execution and customer financing; it is an AI hypothesis.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+25,000

Depreciation+18,000

Capital expenditure-100,000

Working capital-3,000

Net borrowing+10,000

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 103.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	25,000	18,000	100,000	3,000	10,000	-50,000
2028	40,000	25,000	120,000	6,000	8,000	-53,000
2029	60,000	32,000	95,000	5,000	2,000	-6,000
2030	80,000	40,000	75,000	4,000	-3,000	38,000
2031	98,000	47,000	65,000	4,000	-7,000	69,000

Share count & valuation basis

Approximate future diluted common shares in millions. Oracle reported 3,023.736 million common shares outstanding on 2026-09-07 and 3,000 million diluted weighted-average shares for Q1 FY27. Approximation allows for announced further $10 billion equity issuance through FY30 and mandatory convertible preferred dilution; actual future share count is uncertain.

3100 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Oracle Investor Day 2026: Accelerating Value Creation ↗

Published 2026-10-28 · Report FY2026-FY2030 outlook

Management targets FY2030 revenue of at least $225 billion, >35% CAGR from FY2026, non-GAAP operating margin >=40%, non-GAAP EPS >=$21. Positive FCF in H2 FY2028 and >=$30 billion FY2029; capex peaks FY2027-FY2028 then steps down. Additional FY2027-FY2030 funding capped at $20 billion, expected $10 billion equity and $10 billion gross debt excluding refinancing, in addition to $20 billion ATM in Q1 FY2027. Growth expected to become self-funded in FY2029.

Oracle Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q ↗

Published 2026-09-11 · Report Quarter ended 2026-08-31

Shares outstanding 2026-09-07: 3,023.736 million; Q1 diluted weighted average 3,000 million. Q1 issued 141 million ATM shares for $19.9 billion net. Net income $4.760 billion, depreciation $3.156 billion, intangible amortization $202 million, capex $28.499 billion. CFO included $11.363 billion customer prepayments with significant financing components and $3.997 billion other deferred revenue; long-term borrowings $125 billion.

Oracle Q1 FY2027 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 ↗

Published 2026-09-10 · Report Quarter ended 2026-08-31

Revenue $19.345B (+30%); cloud $11.607B (+62%); IaaS $7.4B (+121%); SaaS $4.2B (+10%); RPO $664B; GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders $4.679B. Q1 CFO $23.103B, capex $28.499B, FCF -$5B. FY27 revenue >=$90B and non-GAAP EPS $8.10 guidance.

Oracle FY2026 Form 10-K ↗

Published 2026-06-22 · Report Fiscal year ended 2026-05-31

Audited annual statements for FY2024-FY2026; repurchased 0.4m shares for $93m in FY2026, 3.9m for $600m FY2025, and 10.6m for $1.2B FY2024.

Oracle Investor Day Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 ↗

Published 2026-10-28 · Report Investor Day guidance

SEC-filed copy of Oct 28 Investor Day outlook and financing plan.

Company news

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

COST Costco Wholesale Corp

$996.08

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$199.65

BASE · USD / SHARE$321.78

BULL · USD / SHARE$525.73

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-209.6%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Costco的修正重點是把高成長擴店期與成熟期分開：保留前五年盈餘與擴張支出，再用五年過渡到較低成長及有資金支持的終值。供應商融資與預收會員費不應自動變成永久營運資金流出；但也不能重複把2026年的現金改善當每年紅利。這次上修來自模型結構修正，不是新財報突然證明股價低估。

bear · Equity cost 10.0% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 2.0%bull · Equity cost 8.0% · Terminal 2.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $199.65 / share

AI downside: retain prior FY2027–31 earnings and heavy investment, then fade expansion over five further years. Inventory and supplier terms deteriorate, leaving working capital a cash use. Terminal net reinvestment of $1,636.69m supports 1.5% earnings growth at a 12% incremental earnings return proxy. That return is an explicit hypothesis, not measured ROIC. Maintenance, remodels and IT remain funded. Cost of equity 10% and terminal growth 1.5% are unchanged.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+9,500

Depreciation+2,750

Capital expenditure-7,500

Working capital-800

Net borrowing-100

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.00% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 58.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	9,500	2,750	7,500	800	-100	3,850
2028	10,000	2,900	7,900	850	-100	4,050
2029	10,500	3,050	8,200	900	-100	4,350
2030	11,000	3,200	8,500	950	-100	4,650
2031	11,500	3,350	8,800	1,000	-100	4,950
2032	12,000	3,550	8,400	800	-100	6,250
2033	12,400	3,750	7,900	650	-100	7,500
2034	12,700	3,950	7,300	500	-100	8,750
2035	12,900	4,150	6,600	350	-100	10,000
2036	13,093.5	4,350	5,736.69	250	-100	11,356.81

Base · Central case $321.78 / share

AI central case: retain prior FY2027–31 earnings and gross capex. Supplier financing and prepaid membership fees support modest working-capital neutrality or release. Earnings growth fades from about 8% to 2% by FY2036. Expansion spending peaks in FY2031 and falls gradually as openings slow; ongoing asset replacement and remodels continue. Terminal capex $6,506.5m less D&A $4,700m plus WC investment of -$200m equals $1,606.5m net reinvestment, or 10% of NI. At 2% growth this implies a 20% earnings-based incremental return proxy. This is a conditional AI estimate, not a disclosed maintenance-capex split or management opening plan. Rates remain 9% and 2%.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+10,000

Depreciation+2,800

Capital expenditure-7,500

Working capital-100

Net borrowing-100

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 61.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	10,000	2,800	7,500	100	-100	5,100
2028	10,800	2,970	7,900	-100	-100	5,870
2029	11,600	3,150	8,300	-200	-100	6,550
2030	12,450	3,340	8,700	-250	-100	7,240
2031	13,300	3,540	9,100	-300	-100	7,940
2032	14,100	3,800	8,800	-300	-100	9,300
2033	14,800	4,050	8,300	-275	-100	10,725
2034	15,350	4,300	7,700	-250	-100	12,100
2035	15,750	4,500	7,100	-225	-100	13,275
2036	16,065	4,700	6,506.5	-200	-100	14,358.5

Bull · Optimistic case $525.73 / share

AI upside: membership renewal, Executive upgrades, comparable sales and international warehouses sustain stronger earnings before growth fades to 2.5%. Modest supplier funding does not repeat the FY2026 cash windfall indefinitely. Terminal cash net reinvestment of $2,075.01m is 10% of NI and supports 2.5% growth at a 25% incremental earnings return proxy. Cash capex remains $7,525.01m for a larger warehouse base. Rates stay at 8% and 2.5%; no assumptions are selected to force an undervaluation result.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+10,500

Depreciation+2,850

Capital expenditure-7,500

Working capital+100

Net borrowing-100

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 68.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	FCFE
2027	10,500	2,850	7,500	-100	-100	5,850
2028	11,700	3,050	8,000	-200	-100	6,850
2029	13,000	3,260	8,500	-300	-100	7,960
2030	14,400	3,500	9,000	-400	-100	9,200
2031	15,900	3,760	9,500	-500	-100	10,560
2032	17,400	4,050	9,400	-450	-100	12,400
2033	18,600	4,350	9,100	-400	-100	14,150
2034	19,500	4,650	8,700	-350	-100	15,700
2035	20,244	4,900	8,200	-325	-100	17,169
2036	20,750.1	5,150	7,525.01	-300	-100	18,575.09

Reported financial facts

Units

USDmillions; ordinarydilutedsharesmillions.

FY2026

Revenue: 303154
Net Sales: 297247
Membership Fees: 5907
Common NI: 9226
DA: 2674
CFO: 15817
Cash PPE: 6435
Inventory: 19324
Accounts Payable: 22591
Deferred Membership Fees: 3006
Finance Lease Principal: 89
Diluted Shares: 444.427

Comparative

FY2025

Common NI: 8099
CFO: 13335
Cash PPE: 5498

FY2024

Common NI: 7367
CFO: 11339
Cash PPE: 4710

Cash Flow Bridge2026

CFO15817=NI9226+DA2674+noncashlease318+SBC924+deferredtax306+other49-inventory1153+AP2755+otheroperating718. SBC924isnotaddedbackinforecasts; operatingleaseexpenseisnotdoubleadded. PriorreportedCFOisnotidenticaltofuturecommonFCFE.

Management guidance

Management intends approximately $7.5bn FY2027 cash capex and up to 33 openings, including five relocations. The filings do not disclose a reliable maintenance-versus-growth split or a FY2032–36 opening plan. Latest September sales rose 13%; adjusted comparable sales rose 7.6%, with a holiday shift contributing slightly over 50bp. Those are reported sales, not profit guidance. October sales on November 4 and Q1 earnings on December 10 remain upcoming at the research cutoff.

Investment thesis

Membership loyalty, rapid inventory turnover and the low-price model can fund growth with less net operating capital than traditional retail. The prior base model combined FY2031 NI of $13,300m with net capex of $5,560m and $700m WC investment, then applied only 2% perpetual growth. This $6,260m reinvestment implies a 4.25% incremental earnings yield under the simplified growth/return relationship. That perpetual cash-use requirement was a conservative hypothesis, not a reported Costco fact. The revision separates expansion from maturity rather than reducing all near-term investment.

AI forecast assumptions

All FY2032–36 components and long-run capital productivity assumptions are AI forecasts. First-five-year earnings, gross capex, fixed shares and each scenario’s discount and terminal-growth rates are unchanged. Base earnings growth fades from about 8% to 2%, supported by member demand and additional warehouses without assuming a merchandise-margin surge. Cash capex peaks at $9.1bn in FY2031 and falls gradually to $6.51bn in FY2036 only if new openings slow. D&A rises with the larger asset base. Repairs already expensed in NI are not deducted twice; capitalized remodels, IT and infrastructure remain in capex.

Terminal Reinvestment

Formula

Cash net reinvestment = capex - D&A + changeWC. Implied incremental earnings return proxy = terminalGrowth × NI / cash net reinvestment. NI is a transparent after-tax earnings proxy, not measured NOPAT-based ROIC; financing principal is treated separately.

Bear

NI: 13093.5
DA: 4350
Capex: 5736.6875
Change WC: 250
Net Reinvestment: 1636.6875
Return Proxy: 0.12
G: 0.015

Base

NI: 16065
DA: 4700
Capex: 6506.5
Change WC: -200
Net Reinvestment: 1606.5
Return Proxy: 0.2
G: 0.02

Bull

NI: 20750.1
DA: 5150
Capex: 7525.01
Change WC: -300
Net Reinvestment: 2075.01
Return Proxy: 0.25
G: 0.025

Limitation

Costco does not disclose a full maintenance-versus-capacity split. These are conditional capital-productivity scenarios, not verified future ROIC. If annual openings stay above 33 indefinitely, this capex fade requires reassessing growth and returns.

Working Capital

FY2026 merchandise inventory of $19,324m minus AP of $22,591m is -$3,267m. Deferred membership fees add $3,006m of operating funding before considering other operating balances. A uniform positive perpetual WC drain is therefore not the only plausible outcome. Base forecasts a $100m use initially and modest $100–300m annual releases thereafter, rather than repeating FY2026’s $2,320m aggregate operating-balance cash benefit. Bear retains material cash uses. This is conditional on supplier terms and inventory turns, not unlimited payable growth. Cash, debt, tax balances and dividend distributions are excluded from noncash operating WC.

Financing & dilution

Ordinary debt maturities are assumed refinanced with zero net ordinary borrowing. Estimated finance-lease principal of $100m a year reduces netBorrowing. Lease interest and operating rent remain in NI; finance-lease amortization is not added back twice. No SBC add-back or future buyback accretion is assumed. Common dividends and repurchases are distributions, not additional FCFE expenses. Interest income on opening liquidity remains in NI; no extra cash addition or debt subtraction follows the equity discounting.

Discount rate & long-run growth

Nominal USD base cost of equity of 9% is anchored to the October 29 Treasury 10-year par yield of 4.98% plus October 1 NYU implied ERP of 4.20% times an assumed beta of 0.95: 8.97%, rounded to 9%. Beta is AI judgment, not a measured Costco regression; the ERP is a dated monthly estimate. Bear 10% and bull 8% are risk sensitivities. Terminal growth of 1.5%/2%/2.5% reflects mature real-volume trends plus long-run inflation and pricing, below cost of equity. Rates and shares are unchanged from the prior model, so neither contributes to the valuation increase.

What could go wrong

Expansion spending may not fade: international land, distribution and IT costs could keep capex high while returns fall.
Supplier terms could reverse and inventory or early-payment discounts could consume cash.
Renewal and Executive penetration could weaken while wages, healthcare and tariffs compress thin retail margins.
An NI-based incremental-return proxy is less precise than a complete NOPAT/invested-capital and opening financial-capital reconciliation.
Long-range earnings and cash conversion remain uncertain; model consistency is not evidence that the market is wrong.

Evidence against the thesis

The warehouse network and strong renewal rates support durable economics. However, worldwide renewal of 89.8% is below US/Canada renewal of 92.3%, with some international and digital members renewing less often. FY2027 capex intentions exceed FY2026 spending, contradicting an immediate drop to maintenance investment. Tariff refunds also boosted the latest quarter nonrecurringly and are not projected forever.

Confidence & limitations

Moderate confidence that the old perpetual reinvestment assumptions were unproven; low-to-moderate confidence in a single revised estimate. The future maintenance/growth split and incremental-return proxy remain hypotheses. Numerical validation does not establish economic accuracy.

Forecast timing

For comparability the annual calculator retains full FY2027–FY2036 cash flows at year-end periods 1–10, approximating a FY2026 year-end anchor. FY2027 was already about two months underway at the October 30 research cutoff. No accurate interim cash or stub adjustment is available, so the output is not an exact October 30 fair value and should not support signals based on small gaps.

Model Change

Prior Model Id

cost-fcfe-20261030

Prior Base

200.7264961836442

New Base

321.7793006144078

Change Pct

60.307336964629066

Kind

Methodology/reinvestmentaudit,notnewearningssurprise

Attribution Order Dependent

Step
Prior5yearcompanymodel
Value
200.7264961836442
Step
ModelvendorfinancingandWCstructure
Value
228.37952830088557
Change Per Share
27.653032117241366
Step
Includeannualfinanceleaseprincipal
Value
225.37339230214394
Change Per Share
-3.0061359987416267
Step
Extendgradualearnings/capitalfade10years
Value
321.7793006144078
Change Per Share
96.40590831226388

Ke And Terminal Growth Change

Share Count Change

Evidence & model checks

Reviewed the current annual report with three-year cash flows and lease/debt notes, the annual release and September monthly sales. Checked vendor-funded WC signs, no SBC cash benefit, fixed claims, finance-lease principal, positive terminal cash flow and the link between normalized growth and reinvestment. The prior valid draft is preserved and linked. This audit does not aim to force an undervaluation result.

Capital Return Calibration

Historical Context

FY2026 common NI9226 divided by average reported equity of(35803+29164)/2 is28.4% accounting ROE. Operating income11685 relative to netPPE35633 and inventory funded belowAP suggests capital-efficient mature warehouses. These are historical accounting relationships, not marginal project ROIC; historic-cost land, leases, cash and distribution policy distort comparability. Base20% incremental earnings return is a haircut judgment, not empirical proof.

Alternative Evidence

International greenfield warehouses, cannibalization, wage inflation and expensive real estate can deliver much lower returns than mature stores. Bear12% explicitly captures weaker economics. A lower terminal return increases cash reinvestment even at unchanged2% growth.

Sensitivity

Terminal Return Proxy
0.08
Terminal Capex
8916.25
Base Value
286.11489158919403
Terminal Return Proxy
0.12
Terminal Capex
7577.5
Base Value
305.9284521587572
Terminal Return Proxy
0.2
Terminal Capex
6506.5
Base Value
321.7793006144078
Terminal Return Proxy
0.25
Terminal Capex
6185.2
Base Value
326.53455515110295

Sensitivity Limitation

One-at-a-time terminal-year/terminal-cash sensitivity only, holding earlier cash andgrowthfixed; not a complete alternative warehouse expansion path. Lowerreturnsareeconomicallypossible.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed FY2026 diluted weighted-average shares of 444.427 million, consistent with the prior model and reported 444,427 thousand shares. Future buybacks do not automatically increase per-share value. SBC remains expensed in NI and is not added back. All cash amounts are USD millions; the fixed share denominator and annual fiscal timing are approximations.

444.427 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Official FY2026 Form10K ↗

Published 2026-10-07 · Report 2026-08-30

FY2026/2025/2024 cash flows, membership economics, negative inventory-minus-payables, cashPP&E expansion plan, debt/lease obligations and dilutedshares. Audit opinion datedOct6; source filingdateOct7.

Official annual earnings release ↗

Published 2026-09-24 · Report 2026-08-30

Annual comps, membership revenues, nonrecurring tariffrefund0.15pershare and warehouse base.

Official current monthly sales ↗

Published 2026-10-07 · Report 2026-10-04

Fiveweek sales30.02bn,+13%; adjustedcomps7.6%; LaborDayshift addedslightlyover50bp. Not earnings or fullFY2027 guidance.

Official eventcalendar ↗

October sales scheduledNov4 andFY2027Q1earningsDec10; no laterresultsinvented.

US Treasury nominal rate ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-10-29

October29USD10Yparyield4.98%.

Academic market risk input ↗

· Report 2026-10-01

October1 impliedERP4.20%, monthly notOct29spot; beta remainsAIjudgment.

Company news

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

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Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

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Costco (COST) Brings Real Time Health Benefit Checkouts To More Than 600 Stores

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc.

$108.59

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$43.41

BASE · USD / SHARE$60.41

BULL · USD / SHARE$85.21

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-79.7%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Initial, unreviewed company-specific FCFE scenario draft. FY2027 NI anchors on management GAAP EPS guidance midpoint × latest diluted weighted-average shares; later assumptions are explicitly AI hypotheses.

bear · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $43.41 / share

AI hypothesis, not management guidance: Cisco's FY2027 revenue/EPS outlook is a near-term anchor, but the bear case assumes the unusually strong networking and hyperscaler AI infrastructure cycle fades, product mix/memory costs constrain margins, and elevated inventory and financing-receivable investment continue. Net income is assumed to dip in FY2028 before a gradual 2% recovery; working capital absorbs cash. Net borrowing is set to zero as a neutral financing assumption, not a claim about future debt activity.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+15,800

Depreciation+2,550

Capital expenditure-1,600

Working capital-700

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 65.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	FCFE
2027	15,800	2,550	1,600	700	16,050
2028	15,500	2,600	1,700	500	15,900
2029	15,810	2,650	1,800	450	16,210
2030	16,126	2,700	1,900	400	16,526
2031	16,449	2,750	2,000	400	16,799

Base · Central case $60.41 / share

AI hypothesis, not reported guidance: FY2027 guided GAAP EPS midpoint of $4.03 multiplied by FY2026 diluted shares of 3,987 million gives roughly $16.1 billion net income; the $16.0 billion model input rounds this anchor. Thereafter, net income grows 3% annually, reflecting Cisco's mature installed-base and recurring services/software economics plus measured AI/networking growth, while recognizing FY2026 operating cash flow was flat, subscription revenue grew only 1%, and product mix/memory costs weighed on margins. D&A and CapEx rise gradually; working-capital investment moderates from FY2026's exceptional use of cash. Zero net borrowing is a neutral assumption. Cost of equity and terminal growth are analyst hypotheses, nominal, and not claimed to be market-derived.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+16,000

Depreciation+2,600

Capital expenditure-1,600

Working capital-400

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 72.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	FCFE
2027	16,000	2,600	1,600	400	16,600
2028	16,480	2,700	1,700	350	17,130
2029	16,974	2,800	1,800	350	17,624
2030	17,483	2,900	1,900	350	18,133
2031	18,007	3,000	2,000	350	18,657

Bull · Optimistic case $85.21 / share

AI hypothesis, not management guidance: FY2027 starts near the upper end of guided GAAP EPS, followed by 6% annual net-income growth as AI infrastructure, data-center networking, security and cross-portfolio integration sustain demand and operating leverage. The case assumes product margins recover from mix and memory pressure, and inventory/financing-receivable cash needs normalize. This is the optimistic case; hyperscaler concentration and supply constraints could invalidate it. Cost of equity and terminal growth are nominal analyst assumptions.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+16,100

Depreciation+2,650

Capital expenditure-1,550

Working capital-250

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments0

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 78.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	FCFE
2027	16,100	2,650	1,550	250	16,950
2028	17,066	2,800	1,650	250	17,966
2029	18,090	2,950	1,750	275	19,015
2030	19,175	3,100	1,850	300	20,125
2031	20,326	3,250	1,950	325	21,301

Reported financial facts

FY2026 GAAP net income $13.267B; diluted shares 3.987B; operating cash flow $14.177B; CapEx $1.410B; cash/investments $15.918B; total debt $29.533B. Working capital consumed substantial cash, especially inventory and financing receivables.

Management guidance

FY2027 revenue $72.2–73.4B and GAAP EPS $4.00–4.06; expected hyperscaler AI infrastructure revenue $7.5B.

AI forecast assumptions

Bear/base/bull cases model respectively a fading AI/networking cycle, 3% annual net-income growth after FY2027, or 6% annual growth after FY2027. D&A and CapEx rise gradually; working capital moderates from FY2026 exceptional outflows. Net borrowing is zero as a neutral assumption, not company guidance. Cost of equity and terminal growth rates are nominal analyst hypotheses and lack separate market calibration.

Limitations

FY2026 net income includes volatile other income and tax effects; working capital is unusually volatile due to financing receivables; no sourced beta/risk-free-rate/equity-risk-premium calibration is provided. Numerical draft requires human review and is not an approved valuation or buy recommendation.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed diluted share approximation: FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares, 3,987 million, from Cisco FY2026 Form 10-K. Share-based compensation is already expensed in net income; no extra SBC add-back. Future buybacks/issuance are not projected into the denominator.

3987 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Cisco Systems, Inc. FY2026 Form 10-K ↗

Published 2026-09-02 · Report Fiscal year ended 2026-07-25

FY2026 revenue $63.325B, up 12%; product revenue up 16%, services approximately flat.
GAAP net income $13.267B; diluted weighted-average shares 3.987B.
Operating cash flow $14.177B vs $14.193B FY2025; CapEx $1.410B.
FY2026 cash-flow changes included inventory use $2.541B, financing-receivable use $1.835B and accounts-receivable use $0.832B.
Cash, equivalents and investments $15.918B; total debt $29.533B.
Hyperscaler AI infrastructure was approximately 6% of FY2026 revenue vs less than 2% FY2025; concentration/supply risks disclosed.

Cisco Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings ↗

Published 2026-08-12 · Report Q4/FY2026 ended 2026-07-25; FY2027 guidance

Q4 revenue $17.3B, up 18%; Q4 operating cash flow $5.4B.
FY2026 GAAP EPS $3.33; non-GAAP EPS $4.33.
Management guided FY2027 revenue to $72.2–73.4B and GAAP EPS to $4.00–4.06.
Management expected FY2027 hyperscaler AI infrastructure revenue of $7.5B after approximately $4B FY2026.

Cisco EDGAR filings ↗

Published 2026-09-02 · Report FY2026

Confirms FY2026 Form 10-K filed 2026-09-02 and prior quarterly filings.

Company news

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SMB IT Spending - Global Strategic Business Report: Capitalize on the $900 Billion Surge to $2.5 Trillion by 2032 as Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, IBM and Oracle Reshape SMB Technology

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Connectivity Constraint Computing - Global Strategic Business Report: Capitalize on 21.1% CAGR and Capture US$50B by 2032 as Amazon, Cisco, Google, Microsoft, and IBM Accelerate Edge Dominance

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FCFE · AI estimate

KO Coca-Cola Co

$92.82

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:02.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$27.65

BASE · USD / SHARE$59.25

BULL · USD / SHARE$90.16

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-56.7%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Coca-Cola的估值取決於品牌定價與新興市場需求能否在裝瓶業務出售後維持現金成長。最新Q3強勁，但2027營收有約8%結構性逆風，且IRS稅務訴訟是重大尾部風險。模型逐年處理資本支出、股權法收益轉現金、償債及條件式稅款，而非把近期成長率直接永久外推。

bear · Equity cost 10.0% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 8.4% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 7.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $27.65 / share

AI adverse case: organic growth2–3% and FX weakness cannot offset2027 bottler divestiture headwinds. Persistent marketing/input costs and a3.8percentage-point incremental tax burden reduce commonNI. Conditional IRS adverse judgment cash payments total17bn in2028–30 (6/6/5bn), an explicit timing/stress hypothesis based on disclosed14bn2010–25 exposure plus subsequent accrual, not a court prediction. Already-paid6bn deposit is not deducted again. Later NI includes ongoing higher tax; terminal cash excludes completed catch-up payments.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+14,000

Depreciation+1,050

Capital expenditure-2,100

Working capital-400

Net borrowing-1,500

Other adjustments-1,250

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.00% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 75.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	14,000	1,050	2,100	400	-1,500	-1,250	9,800
2028	14,000	1,050	2,150	400	-1,000	-7,250	4,250
2029	14,300	1,075	2,200	425	0	-7,250	5,500
2030	14,700	1,100	2,250	450	0	-6,250	6,850
2031	15,100	1,125	2,300	475	0	-1,250	12,200

2027 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash 0. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2028 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash -6000. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2029 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash -6000. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2030 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash -5000. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2031 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash 0. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

Base · Central case $59.25 / share

AI central case: underlying volume2–3% plus price/mix2–3%, with2027 roughly8% structural revenue headwind and slight FX drag. Deconsolidating low-margin bottlers means sales contract initially while brand/concentrate mix and earnings improve. A3bn2028–30 tax cash allowance is an uncertainty sensitivity, not a legal probability assessment; no6bn deposit refund assumed. NI includes a modest continuing tax-risk haircut. Reinvestment stays material; earnings from bottlers are reduced to forecast cash distributions through otherAdjustments.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+16,100

Depreciation+1,000

Capital expenditure-1,800

Working capital-250

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-1,250

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.44% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 77.7% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	16,100	1,000	1,800	250	-1,000	-1,250	12,800
2028	17,000	1,020	1,850	300	-500	-2,250	13,120
2029	18,000	1,040	1,900	325	0	-2,250	14,565
2030	18,900	1,060	1,950	350	0	-2,250	15,410
2031	19,800	1,080	2,000	375	0	-1,250	17,255

2028 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash -1000. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2029 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash -1000. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2030 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash -1000. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

Bull · Optimistic case $90.16 / share

AI favorable case: emerging-market volume and zero-sugar/fairlife mix sustain organic6–7% growth, benign FX and concentration on brands expand earnings margins following bottler divestitures. Assumes no additional adverse IRS catch-up payment, without assuming a deposit refund or asset-sale windfall. Higher growth requires larger working-capital and capacity spending; no borrowing-driven or buyback-driven per-share uplift.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+17,100

Depreciation+1,000

Capital expenditure-1,800

Working capital-300

Net borrowing-500

Other adjustments-1,250

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 7.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 82.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	17,100	1,000	1,800	300	-500	-1,250	14,250
2028	18,400	1,030	1,900	350	0	-1,250	15,930
2029	19,900	1,060	2,000	400	0	-1,250	17,310
2030	21,400	1,090	2,100	450	0	-1,250	18,690
2031	22,900	1,120	2,200	500	0	-1,250	20,070

2028 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash 0. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2029 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash 0. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

2030 adjustment: AI forecast components USDmillions: equity-method income not paid as dividends -1200; deferred-tax cash timing +400; recurring strategic investment -300; minority cash reserve -50; pension/other cash timing -100; conditional IRS catch-up cash 0. Recurring subtotal -1250. No SBC add-back; no hypothetical divestiture proceeds or common distributions.

Reported financial facts

FY2025: USDmillions: sales47941, commonNI13107, D&A1050, CFO7408, PP&E2112; FY2024 commonNI10631,CFO6805,PP&E2064.2025CFO includes fairlife final milestone cash;2024 includes6bnIRSdeposit.
Nine Months2026: CommonNI12358,D&A783,CFO12471,PP&E1063; debtissued19,repaid3165; equityincome netdividends cashcorrection-1013; reportedoperatingassets/liabilitiescashuse498.
Q3Drivers: Unitvolume+5%,price/mix+1%; NorthAmerica volume flat. Concentrate shipment timing and FX also influence reported revenue. Q3 dilutedshares4314m.

Management guidance

Oct27:2026organicgrowth at least5%, comparableEPS at least11%; CFOatleast15.2bn andcapex~2.2bn. Preliminary2027 divestitures imply~8%revenue/~2%EPS headwinds andslightFXheadwind; full2027guidance notprovided.2026buybacks intended to offsetemployee dilution.

AI forecast assumptions

Revenue And Earnings

Scenario
bear
Years
- 2027
- 2028
- 2029
- 2030
- 2031
Revenue USDmillions
- 47000
- 47940
- 48900
- 49880
- 50880
Ni Common USDmillions
- 14000
- 14000
- 14300
- 14700
- 15100
Explanation
AI adverse case: organic growth2–3% and FX weakness cannot offset2027 bottler divestiture headwinds. Persistent marketing/input costs and a3.8percentage-point incremental tax burden reduce commonNI. Conditional IRS adverse judgment cash payments total17bn in2028–30 (6/6/5bn), an explicit timing/stress hypothesis based on disclosed14bn2010–25 exposure plus subsequent accrual, not a court prediction. Already-paid6bn deposit is not deducted again. Later NI includes ongoing higher tax; terminal cash excludes completed catch-up payments.
Scenario
base
Years
- 2027
- 2028
- 2029
- 2030
- 2031
Revenue USDmillions
- 49400
- 51900
- 54500
- 57100
- 59700
Ni Common USDmillions
- 16100
- 17000
- 18000
- 18900
- 19800
Explanation
AI central case: underlying volume2–3% plus price/mix2–3%, with2027 roughly8% structural revenue headwind and slight FX drag. Deconsolidating low-margin bottlers means sales contract initially while brand/concentrate mix and earnings improve. A3bn2028–30 tax cash allowance is an uncertainty sensitivity, not a legal probability assessment; no6bn deposit refund assumed. NI includes a modest continuing tax-risk haircut. Reinvestment stays material; earnings from bottlers are reduced to forecast cash distributions through otherAdjustments.
Scenario
bull
Years
- 2027
- 2028
- 2029
- 2030
- 2031
Revenue USDmillions
- 50500
- 53800
- 57300
- 61000
- 64700
Ni Common USDmillions
- 17100
- 18400
- 19900
- 21400
- 22900
Explanation
AI favorable case: emerging-market volume and zero-sugar/fairlife mix sustain organic6–7% growth, benign FX and concentration on brands expand earnings margins following bottler divestitures. Assumes no additional adverse IRS catch-up payment, without assuming a deposit refund or asset-sale windfall. Higher growth requires larger working-capital and capacity spending; no borrowing-driven or buyback-driven per-share uplift.

Cash Conversion

ForecastD&A~1.0–1.1bn reflects reduced consolidated bottling; capex1.8–2.3bn preserves capacity and fairlife investment rather than equating capex withD&A. WC250–500m annualcashuse reflects receivables/inventory nettradepayables excluding financing and exceptional tax. Historical reportedoperatingassets/liabilitiescashuse is not blindly used as WC.

Other Adjustments

Recurring Components USDmillions

Equity Income Less Dividends: -1200
Deferred Tax Cash Timing: 400
Recurring Strategic Investment: -300
Minority Cash Reserve: -50
Pension And Other Cash Timing: -100

Reason

Equityinvestee income is not automatically distributable; replace retained profits with distributions. Strategiccashinvestment is separate fromcapex. Minorityreserve conservatively absorbs residual consolidated/noncommoncash approximation. Amounts are explicitAI hypotheses, not exact future reported facts. No recurring saleproceeds assumed.

Tax Treatment

Bear17bn catch-up stress vsbase3bn allowance vsbull0, with no depositrefund. These are conditional valuation sensitivities, not established court probabilities; no scenario probabilityweights orapprovedfairvalue inferred. BearNI alreadyreflects ongoingtaxincrease; catchup excludes currentperiodtax to avoiddoubling.

2026Bridge

Illustrative2026 revenue51000/commonNI15700 USDmillions uses9month39232/12358 plus estimatedQ4 notannualizedQ3. This bridge isAIestimate, notreported2026result. Base2027sales49400 follows underlying~5% then~8%divestiture andslightFXdrag; commonNI16100 implies32.6%postdivestituremargin vs2026bridge30.8%.2028–31margin32.8→33.2% assumes brandmix/scale offsetsmarketingcosts. Bearmargin29.8→29.7% includescurrenttaxstress; bull33.9→35.4% requiresstrongvolume/mix.

Financing & dilution

Interest/tax included inNI. NetBorrowing paysdown1.5/1.0/0.5bn in2027 then stabilizes; refinancing gross maturities is assumed, not claimedmanagementcommitment. No debt subtraction after equityDCF, no buyback/dividend deduction fromFCFE, no projectedstockissue proceeds. Fixed dilutedshares prevents automatic buybackaccretion.

Discount rate & long-run growth

NominalUSD baseKe8.44%=Oct1 Treasury5.29%+AIassumedbeta0.75×ERP4.20%. Beta is a hypothesis, not a measured regression; monthlyanchors are notOct30spot. Bear10%/bull7.5% risk sensitivities. Terminalg1.5/2.5/3% combines2%FedPCEinflation context with mature realvolumes/mix, never inferred solely fromcompanyinflation; allg<Ke.

Historical cash-flow reconciliation

FY2025

Ni Common: 13107
Da: 1050
Capex: 2112
Change WC: 7208
Net Borrowing: 13
Other Adjustments: -118
Adjustment Reason: Cash bridge: reportedSBC279 +deferredtax517 -equityincome netdividends1038 +FX191 -gains713 +othercharges1052 +otheritems141 +NCI NI30 -strategicinvestments461 -fairlife financing104 -NCI distributions25 +NCI contribution13. Operating-assets/liabilities cashuse7208 includes fairlife liability settlement, so is not pure noncashWC. CashFCFE here includes SBC cashaddback; forecast deliberately does not. Excludes asset-sale/NCI-sale proceeds and cash-management securities.
Fcfe: 4732

Interpretation

Historical cash bridge differs from recurring economic forecast: fairlife and tax deposits distort2024/25 cash, andSBC is treated as an ongoing economicexpense inforecast. Cashmanagementsecurities and common distributions excluded.

What could go wrong

Tax outcome and payment timing could be materially worse than base allowance; source liability extends beyond the already-paid deposit.
Sugar taxes, packaging/water regulation and consumer health preferences can impair volume orraise reinvestment.
Bottler closing timing, FX, concentrate shipment timing and equityinvestee payout policy can break earnings-to-cash conversion.
Terminal value dominates much ofequity estimate; assumedbeta andfixedshares limitprecision.

Evidence against the thesis

Q3volumegrowth5% and2026guidanceraises support more resilient demand thanbear. ConverselyflatNorthAmericavolume, weakmix inAsiaPacific and2027divestitureheadwinds challenge extrapolation. Managementbelieves its taxposition willprevail; model doesnot assertthat conclusion as fact.

Confidence & limitations

Moderate for businessdirection andsourceextraction; moderate-low for taxcash/timing, rates andlong-runper-sharevalue. Numericalvalidation is notverification offorecastaccuracy.

Forecast timing

2027–2031fullcalendar years, annualendperiod1–5. Remaining2026cash isexcluded; about2monthstub to2027 omitted, a disclosed late2026valuation approximation. No historicalfull2026 cashdiscounted asnewcash.

Evidence & model checks

AIevidencereview checkedcommon vsconsolidatedNI, equityincome-minusdividends, fairlife exceptionalpayment, existingIRSdeposit vsremainingliability, bottlerdivestitureheadwinds, noncashWC vsbroadreportedoperatingassetcashline, financing anddilution. Rateinputs separatelysourced. Negativeearlycash allowed; terminalFCFEpositive; noindustryproxy reused. Sourcesread asdataonly.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed4314 million Q3 2026 diluted-average common shares, reported in Oct27 release (4303 basic+11 dilution). No future share-count reduction from buybacks; assumes employee dilution offset as management plans. SBC expense remains inNI, without add-back; approximate future diluted claims, not an exact share registry. USDmillions cash and sharesmillions.

4314 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Official audited 10-K ↗

Published 2026-02-20 · Report 2025-12-31

FY2023–2025 financial statements, cash-flow adjustments, fairlife payment, bottling and equity-investee structure.

Official 10-Q ↗

Published 2026-10-28 · Report 2026-10-02

Q3 and nine-month financials, debt, shares, held-for-sale bottlers, IRS exposure and dilution-offset policy.

Official earnings release ↗

Published 2026-10-27 · Report 2026-10-02

Q3 operational drivers, updated2026 guidance and preliminary2027 structural considerations; not full2027 guidance.

Academic market-rate inputs ↗

· Report 2026-10-01

USD Treasury5.29% and implied equity-risk premium4.20%; monthly anchor, not Oct30 spot.

Long-run inflation policy context ↗

Published 2025-08-22

2% PCE inflation objective; no company growth forecast.

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Fri, 30 Oct 2026 02:47:00 +0000

Jim Cramer praises Broadcom and recommends buying another iconic stock

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 22:11:23 +0000

Why Is Coca Cola (KO) Challenging Tokenized Share Listings?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 21:07:37 +0000

Jim Cramer Says Buy Coca-Cola. Is Its Dividend Still Worth It After a 35% Rally?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:47:02 +0000

Coca-Cola Raised Its 2026 Outlook. I'd Still Wait for a Lower Price to Buy the Stock.

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:17:55 +0000

PepsiCo (PEP) vs. KO and MDLZ: Is Its Beverage-and-Snacks Strategy Creating a Stronger Defensive Business?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:36:00 +0000

PepsiCo vs. Coca-Cola: Which Beverage Titan Is the Better Bet?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

PG Procter & Gamble Co.

$160.59

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:02:33.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$62.16

BASE · USD / SHARE$112.95

BULL · USD / SHARE$167.95

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-42.2%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

P&G的品牌與通路能否把穩定消費需求轉成股東現金，是估值核心。最新季度量與組合改善，但原物料、利息與投資仍壓抑現金成長。模型逐年推估收入、歸屬盈餘、工廠投資、營運資金與併購後還債，不把近期借款或回購增厚當成永久成長。

bear · Equity cost 10.5% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 8.6% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 7.8% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $62.16 / share

AI downside: initiallyflatvolume then~0.5%, price/mix1–1.5%, littleFXrelief; private-labelpressure and inputcosts keep margins17.2→17.8%. Revenue90→96.94bn, PP&E~5.5%ofsales persists. Debtpaydown reduces distributablecash; no borrowing-driven terminalgrowth.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+15,480

Depreciation+3,400

Capital expenditure-4,950

Working capital-700

Net borrowing-1,500

Other adjustments-500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.50% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 67.6% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	15,480	3,400	4,950	700	-1,500	-500	11,230
2029	15,712	3,500	5,025	500	-1,000	-500	12,187
2030	16,213	3,600	5,125	450	-500	-500	13,238
2031	16,727	3,700	5,225	450	0	-500	14,252
2032	17,255	3,800	5,330	450	0	-500	14,775

2028 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 400 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=90000 revenue×17.2% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2029 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 400 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=91350 revenue×17.2% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2030 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 400 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=93180 revenue×17.4% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2031 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 400 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=95040 revenue×17.6% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2032 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 400 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=96940 revenue×17.8% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

Base · Central case $112.95 / share

AI central: afterFY2027costheadwinds, volume~1.5%, price/mix~2%, neutralFX generate3.5%nominalsalesgrowth. Revenue93.3→107.064bn, attributablemargin18.8→19.5% reflects productivity. Capex5→4.8%ofsales; WCinvestmentpositive despite historicalsupplierfinancecashrelease. Thorneearnings not assumed transformative.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+17,540

Depreciation+3,450

Capital expenditure-4,665

Working capital-400

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-400

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.65% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 75.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	17,540	3,450	4,665	400	-1,000	-400	14,525
2029	18,347	3,550	4,732	420	-500	-400	15,845
2030	19,189	3,660	4,797	440	0	-400	17,212
2031	20,068	3,770	4,965	460	0	-400	18,013
2032	20,877	3,890	5,139	480	0	-400	18,748

2028 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 300 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=93300 revenue×18.8% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2029 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 300 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=96565 revenue×19.0% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2030 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 300 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=99945 revenue×19.2% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2031 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 300 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=103443 revenue×19.4% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2032 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 300 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=107064 revenue×19.5% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

Bull · Optimistic case $167.95 / share

AI upside: volume2–2.5% plusprice/mix2–2.5%, no structuralFXbenefit, support5%nominalgrowth. Beauty/Fabricexecution andproductivity expand margin19.7→21.2%. Capex/WC grow too. Terminal3% assumes mature globalcategorygrowth, not perpetual5%growth.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2028 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+18,912

Depreciation+3,500

Capital expenditure-4,800

Working capital-450

Net borrowing-500

Other adjustments-450

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 7.80% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 81.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2028	18,912	3,500	4,800	450	-500	-450	16,212
2029	20,261	3,650	4,940	480	0	-450	18,041
2030	21,697	3,800	5,080	510	0	-450	19,457
2031	23,227	3,950	5,334	540	0	-450	20,853
2032	24,738	4,100	5,601	570	0	-450	22,217

2028 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 350 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=96000 revenue×19.7% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2029 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 350 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=100800 revenue×20.1% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2030 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 350 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=105840 revenue×20.5% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2031 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 350 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=111132 revenue×20.9% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

2032 adjustment: AI cash acquisition/investment budget 350 plus100 minority-owned subsidiary capital/cash-leakage reserve. Not reported futurecash. NI=116689 revenue×21.2% attributablemargin. No SBCaddback, common dividends or buybacks deducted; restructuring cash costs remain inNI/WC.

Reported financial facts

USDmillions: FY2026 revenue87032, attributableNI16046, DA3160, CFO19556, capex4409; FY2025CFO17817/capex3773; FY2024CFO19846/capex3322. Q1FY2027 attributableNI4731, DA810, CFO5767, capex1366, netborrowing4854; dilutedshares2407.2m include convertiblepreferred.

Management guidance

October22outlook: FY2027 sales+2–4%, organic+1–3%, coreEPS6.89–7.11, capex4.5–5.5%ofsales, FCFproductivity85–90%. These are managementexpectations, not realizedfuturefacts.

AI forecast assumptions

Revenue Bridge: FY2027planningcontext sales89643 (=FY2026×1.03), attributableNI16688, capex4482 (=5%ofsales) are AIhypotheses, excluded fromdiscountedperiods. FY2028base93300sales assumes fullThorneyear plusorganicgrowth, not managementforecast.
Business Drivers: Base volume~1.5% andprice/mix~2%, neutralFX; margins18.8→19.5% throughproductivity. AnnualNI=sales×margin, disclosed separately fromcashcomponents. Bear/bullchange demand, pricingpower andcostexecution.
Reinvestment: PP&E4.8–5.5%ofsales; DA tracks installedassets. PositiveWCinvestment avoids capitalizingperpetualsupplierfinance releases. SCFpayables stay inoperatingWC, not netborrowing.
Other Adjustments: AnnualAIstrategiccash investment/acquisition budgets300–400 plus100NCIcapitalreserve; no majorfuturedeal assumed. These conservativeamounts are not reportedcompanyplans; normalNIexcludesnonrecurringgains. Restructuringcost remains inNI/WC.

Financing & dilution

October1Thorne3.9bn acquisition was alreadyclosedbeforevaluation. Q1borrowing4854 is not recurringfutureFCFE. BaseFY2028/29 debtpaydown1000/500 assumes initialFY2027paydown, then debtneutralrefinancing; bear1500/1000/500, bull500thenneutral. Interest/tax embedded inNI. If-convertedpreferred denominator means no duplicatepreferreddividenddeduction. No commondividend/buybackdeduction, futurebuybackaccretion or cash/debtbridge.

Discount rate & long-run growth

October1NYU nominalUSD Treasury5.29%+ERP4.20%×AIbeta0.80=8.65%base. Beta is a defensiveconsumer-staples hypothesis, not measuredPGregression. Bear10.5%/bull7.8% are risksensitivities. Nominalterminalg1.5/2.5/3% reflects maturecategoryvolume andpricing, not companyinflation alone. Monthlyanchors are not currentspotrates; allg<Ke.

What could go wrong

Private-labeltrade-down andpricingelasticity can limitvolume andmargins.
Commodity, freight, tariffs, FX andexecutioncosts mayoutweighproductivity.
Supplierfinancereversal, M&Aintegration, restructuring andfurtheracquisitions mayconsumeunbudgetedcash.
Fixedif-convertedshares and terminalrates limitprecision; smallpricegaps requirebettertiming.

Evidence against the thesis

Q1organicgrowth4% andvolumestrength exceedfullFYorganicguidance andcould makebasecautious. Conversely coreEPSgrowth1% despite4%salesgrowth shows costpressure. FCFproductivity guidance below100% arguesagainst treatingallprofits asdistributablecash.

Confidence & limitations

Moderate forfranchisecashflowdirection, low-moderate onprecisevalue. Officialreportinputs havehighsourceconfidence; forecastsremainuncertain. AIevidencereview andnumericchecks areseparate; neither guaranteesvaluation.

Forecast timing

FullfiscalyearsFY2028–FY2032 endingJune30; FY2027alreadyinprogress andremainingcash excluded. CalculatordiscountsFY2028att1 instead ofactual~20months fromOct302026, effectivelyJune2027anchor. ThisraisesfutureperiodPV butomitsnear-termcash; netbiasunknown. Needexactstub beforeinterpretingnarrowgaps. No elapsedyearcountedasfuturecash.

Historical cash-flow reconciliation

FY2026

Ni Common: 16046
Da: 3160
Capex: 4409
Change WC: -362
Net Borrowing: -107
Other Adjustments: -12
Adjustment Reason: Other=-11 reportedcomponents plus-1rounding:CFO19556-(16046+3160+362)=-12. ReportcomponentsNCI98+SBC524+deferredtax51-gain351+other(-333)=-11. WC=-(84-641+919). Debt7941-9984+2674+2652-3390=-107. Bridge15040 equals consolidatedCFO-capex+netborrowing; notcommonFCFE becauseSBCeconomiccost/NCI/investingclaimsremain.
Fcfe: 15040

Q1FY2027

Ni Common: 4731
Da: 810
Capex: 1366
Change WC: -211
Net Borrowing: 4854
Other Adjustments: 15
Adjustment Reason: NCI26+SBC98+deferredtax115-gain20-other204=15; WC=-(-589-349+1149)=-211; debt=-157+5758-747=4854. Bridge9255 equals5767-1366+4854; borrowingisnotrecurringvalue.
Fcfe: 9255

Evidence & model checks

AIevidencereview checked GAAPvsCoreEPS, preferredifconversion, WCsigns, debtfunding, completedacquisition, SBC/SCFdoublecounting andNI-growthdrivers. Historicalbridge is explicitlynotpurecommonFCFE; forwardcash adjustments arehypotheses. PositivefinalFCFE/scenarioordering/g<Kechecked separately. No priorPGresearchedmodelpresent.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed2407.2million Q1FY2027 dilutedweightedshares=2323.7basic+17.0awards+66.6if-convertedpreferred. NIattributableP&Gbeforepreferreddividends matches if-convertedclaims; preferreddividends are not deducted again. No futurebuybackaccretion. SBCexpense stays inNI withoutcashaddback. Currentbasicshares differ; fixeddiluted approximation. CashUSDmillions/sharesmillions.

2407.2 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Official audited 10-K ↗

Published 2026-08-04 · Report 2026-06-30

FY2026/2025/2024 cashflows, attributable earnings, equity claims and borrowing.

Official quarterly 10-Q ↗

Published 2026-10-22 · Report 2026-09-30

Q1FY2027 cashflows, if-converted preferred shares, supplier financing and Thorne subsequent event.

Official earnings/guidance ↗

Published 2026-10-22 · Report 2026-09-30

Sales drivers and FY2027 growth, EPS, capex and cash conversion outlook.

Academic monthly market inputs ↗

· Report 2026-10-01

NominalUSD Treasury5.29% and adjusted-payout impliedERP4.20%, not October30spotrates.

Official annual earnings ↗

Published 2026-07-29 · Report 2026-06-30

Prior guidance context; October22release supersedes earlieroutlook.

Company news

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 15:42:46 +0000

What Changed In Procter & Gamble's Story?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 06:25:09 +0000

Procter & Gamble (PG) Bond Sale Puts Its Pricey Valuation Narrative In Focus

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Wed, 28 Oct 2026 08:22:51 +0000

What Did Procter & Gamble's Latest Quarter Change For Its Stock?

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Wed, 28 Oct 2026 01:44:00 +0000

Here's How Many Shares of Procter & Gamble It Would Take to Fund an Annual $3,000 Vacation From Dividends

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Tue, 27 Oct 2026 16:34:30 +0000

One Unsettled Question Sits Under Procter & Gamble Stock

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

Yahoo Finance RSS · Tue, 27 Oct 2026 13:26:57 +0000

4 Consumer Staples Dividend Kings That Have Raised Shareholder Payouts for Decades

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

MRK Merck & Co Inc

$146.33

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:02:37.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$27.27

BASE · USD / SHARE$70.44

BULL · USD / SHARE$140.39

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-107.7%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Merck is a Keytruda patent-transition and pipeline-replacement valuation, not a constant-growth earnings multiple. Ten annual forecast years explicitly cross potential US competition from late 2028 and European erosion around 2031 before terminal growth. Cash-funded external innovation and deleveraging reduce distributable cash. Estimates are substantive AI research, not verified forecasts.

bear · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 1.0%base · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.0%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 2.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $27.27 / share

Early US Keytruda erosion and subsequent European competition overwhelm slower launches; Gardasil remains constrained and pipeline probabilities disappoint. Costs adjust with a lag. Limited working-capital release is temporary; external innovation remains a recurring cash expense.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+14,781

Depreciation+6,500

Capital expenditure-5,500

Working capital-700

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-2,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 1.00% · Terminal value 29.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	14,781	6,500	5,500	700	-1,000	-2,500	11,581
2028	14,107	6,500	5,500	400	-1,000	-2,600	11,107
2029	11,423	6,400	5,200	-300	-500	-2,700	9,723
2030	8,971	6,200	5,000	-500	0	-2,800	7,871
2031	7,680	6,000	4,800	-300	0	-2,900	6,280
2032	7,589	5,800	4,700	0	0	-3,000	5,689
2033	7,807	5,600	4,600	200	0	-3,100	5,507
2034	8,199	5,400	4,600	300	0	-3,200	5,499
2035	8,599	5,200	4,600	400	0	-3,300	5,499
2036	8,998	5,000	4,600	400	0	-3,400	5,598

2027 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2028 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2029 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2030 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2031 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2032 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2033 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2034 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2035 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

2036 adjustment: AI recurring external R&D/IPR&D and licensing cash reserve excluded from normalized NI; charged once here. Existing ordinary R&D, collaboration royalties and acquisition amortization remain in operating margin. No repeat subtraction of historical acquisition cash.

Base · Central case $70.44 / share

Keytruda/Qlex growth bridges through 2028, followed by substantial US and European loss of exclusivity. Winrevair, Welireg, Capvaxive, Ohtuvayre, enlicitide and probability-weighted oncology assets rebuild sales by the mid-2030s. This is a forecast, not adoption of management’s $70bn opportunity as booked sales.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+16,919

Depreciation+6,500

Capital expenditure-5,500

Working capital-1,100

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-2,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 52.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	16,919	6,500	5,500	1,100	-2,000	-2,500	12,319
2028	18,044	6,600	5,700	900	-2,000	-2,700	13,344
2029	17,050	6,600	5,900	300	-1,500	-2,900	13,050
2030	15,794	6,500	6,100	0	-1,000	-3,100	12,094
2031	15,816	6,300	6,300	200	-500	-3,300	11,816
2032	16,809	6,100	6,500	500	0	-3,500	12,409
2033	18,500	5,900	6,700	800	0	-3,700	13,200
2034	20,263	5,700	6,900	900	0	-3,900	14,263
2035	22,098	5,500	7,100	1,000	0	-4,100	15,398
2036	24,005	5,300	7,300	1,000	0	-4,300	16,705

Bull · Optimistic case $140.39 / share

Qlex and combinations retain a larger Keytruda franchise after patents, Gardasil recovers and multiple new franchises exceed probability-weighted base uptake. Higher manufacturing investment and innovation spending accompany success; these are deliberately optimistic clinical/commercial hypotheses.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+19,367

Depreciation+6,700

Capital expenditure-6,000

Working capital-1,500

Net borrowing-3,000

Other adjustments-3,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 64.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	19,367	6,700	6,000	1,500	-3,000	-3,000	12,567
2028	21,893	6,900	6,500	1,700	-3,000	-3,300	14,293
2029	23,191	7,100	7,000	1,800	-2,500	-3,600	15,391
2030	24,016	7,200	7,500	1,800	-2,000	-4,000	15,916
2031	26,103	7,300	8,000	1,900	-1,000	-4,400	18,103
2032	28,915	7,300	8,500	1,900	0	-4,800	21,015
2033	32,090	7,200	9,000	1,900	0	-5,200	23,190
2034	35,367	7,000	9,500	1,900	0	-5,600	25,367
2035	38,466	6,800	10,000	1,900	0	-6,000	27,366
2036	41,741	6,600	10,500	1,900	0	-6,400	29,541

As Of

2026-10-30

Currency

USD millions; shares millions; per-share outputs USD

Reported financial facts

Period
FY2025
Ni Common
18254
Da
5838
Cfo
16472
Capex
4112
Keytruda Sales
31641
Total Sales
65011
Source
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm
Period
H1 2026
Consolidated NI
-5580
Da
3095
Acquired IPRDAddback
13811
Cfo
9288
Capex
1884
Cidara Investing Cash
8779
Terns Investing Cash
5842
Net Borrowing
4811
Source
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000212/mrk-20260630.htm
Period
Q3 2026
Sales
18085
Ni Common
5065
Diluted Shares
2478
Keytruda IV
7771
Qlex
830
Gardasil
1995
Winrevair
694
Welireg
307
Capvaxive
263
Source
https://www.merck.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/124/2026/10/3Q26-Merck-Other-Financial-Disclosures.pdf

Management guidance

Date
2026-10-29
Claim
FY2026 sales $66.8–67.3bn and non-GAAP EPS $2.77–2.82 include Cidara, Terns and SciBrunch acquired R&D charges. Do not treat this EPS as recurring operating cash earnings.
Source
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000110465926119825/tm2628203d1_ex99-1.htm
Date
2026-10-29
Claim
Management discusses approximately $70bn new-product/pipeline opportunity in mid-2030s. It is neither total-company revenue nor a probability-weighted guarantee. Enlicitide access and launch investment constrain initial uptake.
Source
https://www.merck.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/124/2026/10/MRK-USQ_Transcript_2026-10-29.pdf

Cash Bridge

FY2025 consolidated NI 18,263 + amortization 2,793 + depreciation 3,045 + impairment 55 - equity income 368 - deferred tax 1,671 + SBC 820 + other 511 + net operating balance movements (-6,976) = CFO 16,472. The operating balance movements are NOT all pure noncash WC. H1 2026 CFO reconciles exactly: -5,580+1,915+1,180-411+13,811-859+483-61-1,190=9,288. H1 capex 1,884 is separate from Cidara 8,779 and Terns 5,842 investing acquisition cash. Forecast excludes those nonrecurring IPR&D charges from normalized NI but retains a substantial recurring external innovation cash budget as negative otherAdjustments; no acquired-R&D addback is treated as free cash.

Forecast Drivers

Bear

Year
2027
Keytruda And Qlex
33000
Gardasil
5000
Growth Portfolio
8000
Other Pharma
15000
Animal Health
7000
Revenue
68000
Gaap Operating Margin
0.29
Net Interest
1900
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2028
Keytruda And Qlex
31000
Gardasil
5000
Growth Portfolio
9500
Other Pharma
14700
Animal Health
7150
Revenue
67350
Gaap Operating Margin
0.28
Net Interest
1850
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2029
Keytruda And Qlex
24000
Gardasil
5100
Growth Portfolio
11500
Other Pharma
14400
Animal Health
7300
Revenue
62300
Gaap Operating Margin
0.25
Net Interest
1800
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2030
Keytruda And Qlex
17000
Gardasil
5200
Growth Portfolio
13500
Other Pharma
14100
Animal Health
7450
Revenue
57250
Gaap Operating Margin
0.22
Net Interest
1775
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2031
Keytruda And Qlex
13000
Gardasil
5300
Growth Portfolio
15500
Other Pharma
13800
Animal Health
7600
Revenue
55200
Gaap Operating Margin
0.2
Net Interest
1775
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2032
Keytruda And Qlex
10000
Gardasil
5400
Growth Portfolio
18000
Other Pharma
13500
Animal Health
7750
Revenue
54650
Gaap Operating Margin
0.2
Net Interest
1775
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2033
Keytruda And Qlex
8000
Gardasil
5500
Growth Portfolio
20000
Other Pharma
13200
Animal Health
7900
Revenue
54600
Gaap Operating Margin
0.205
Net Interest
1775
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2034
Keytruda And Qlex
7000
Gardasil
5700
Growth Portfolio
22000
Other Pharma
12800
Animal Health
8050
Revenue
55550
Gaap Operating Margin
0.21
Net Interest
1775
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2035
Keytruda And Qlex
6000
Gardasil
5900
Growth Portfolio
24000
Other Pharma
12400
Animal Health
8200
Revenue
56500
Gaap Operating Margin
0.215
Net Interest
1775
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2036
Keytruda And Qlex
5000
Gardasil
6000
Growth Portfolio
26000
Other Pharma
12000
Animal Health
8400
Revenue
57400
Gaap Operating Margin
0.22
Net Interest
1775
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10

Base

Year
2027
Keytruda And Qlex
34500
Gardasil
5600
Growth Portfolio
9000
Other Pharma
15500
Animal Health
7000
Revenue
71600
Gaap Operating Margin
0.31
Net Interest
1800
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2028
Keytruda And Qlex
35000
Gardasil
5900
Growth Portfolio
12000
Other Pharma
15400
Animal Health
7350
Revenue
75650
Gaap Operating Margin
0.31
Net Interest
1700
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2029
Keytruda And Qlex
30000
Gardasil
6200
Growth Portfolio
16000
Other Pharma
15200
Animal Health
7700
Revenue
75100
Gaap Operating Margin
0.295
Net Interest
1600
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2030
Keytruda And Qlex
23500
Gardasil
6400
Growth Portfolio
20500
Other Pharma
15000
Animal Health
8050
Revenue
73450
Gaap Operating Margin
0.28
Net Interest
1525
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2031
Keytruda And Qlex
19500
Gardasil
6500
Growth Portfolio
25500
Other Pharma
14800
Animal Health
8400
Revenue
74700
Gaap Operating Margin
0.275
Net Interest
1475
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2032
Keytruda And Qlex
17500
Gardasil
6600
Growth Portfolio
30000
Other Pharma
14700
Animal Health
8750
Revenue
77550
Gaap Operating Margin
0.28
Net Interest
1450
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2033
Keytruda And Qlex
16500
Gardasil
6700
Growth Portfolio
35000
Other Pharma
14600
Animal Health
9100
Revenue
81900
Gaap Operating Margin
0.29
Net Interest
1450
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2034
Keytruda And Qlex
15500
Gardasil
6800
Growth Portfolio
40000
Other Pharma
14500
Animal Health
9450
Revenue
86250
Gaap Operating Margin
0.3
Net Interest
1450
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2035
Keytruda And Qlex
14500
Gardasil
6900
Growth Portfolio
45000
Other Pharma
14400
Animal Health
9800
Revenue
90600
Gaap Operating Margin
0.31
Net Interest
1450
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2036
Keytruda And Qlex
13500
Gardasil
7000
Growth Portfolio
50000
Other Pharma
14300
Animal Health
10150
Revenue
94950
Gaap Operating Margin
0.32
Net Interest
1450
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10

Bull

Year
2027
Keytruda And Qlex
36000
Gardasil
6000
Growth Portfolio
11000
Other Pharma
16000
Animal Health
7200
Revenue
76200
Gaap Operating Margin
0.33
Net Interest
1800
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2028
Keytruda And Qlex
38000
Gardasil
6500
Growth Portfolio
15500
Other Pharma
16100
Animal Health
7600
Revenue
83700
Gaap Operating Margin
0.335
Net Interest
1650
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2029
Keytruda And Qlex
36000
Gardasil
7000
Growth Portfolio
22000
Other Pharma
16200
Animal Health
8050
Revenue
89250
Gaap Operating Margin
0.33
Net Interest
1500
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2030
Keytruda And Qlex
32000
Gardasil
7500
Growth Portfolio
29000
Other Pharma
16300
Animal Health
8500
Revenue
93300
Gaap Operating Margin
0.325
Net Interest
1375
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2031
Keytruda And Qlex
29000
Gardasil
7800
Growth Portfolio
37000
Other Pharma
16400
Animal Health
9000
Revenue
99200
Gaap Operating Margin
0.33
Net Interest
1275
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2032
Keytruda And Qlex
27000
Gardasil
8100
Growth Portfolio
45000
Other Pharma
16500
Animal Health
9500
Revenue
106100
Gaap Operating Margin
0.34
Net Interest
1225
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2033
Keytruda And Qlex
26000
Gardasil
8400
Growth Portfolio
53000
Other Pharma
16600
Animal Health
10000
Revenue
114000
Gaap Operating Margin
0.35
Net Interest
1225
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2034
Keytruda And Qlex
25000
Gardasil
8600
Growth Portfolio
61000
Other Pharma
16700
Animal Health
10500
Revenue
121800
Gaap Operating Margin
0.36
Net Interest
1225
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2035
Keytruda And Qlex
24000
Gardasil
8800
Growth Portfolio
68000
Other Pharma
16800
Animal Health
11000
Revenue
128600
Gaap Operating Margin
0.37
Net Interest
1225
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10
Year
2036
Keytruda And Qlex
23000
Gardasil
9000
Growth Portfolio
75000
Other Pharma
17000
Animal Health
11600
Revenue
135600
Gaap Operating Margin
0.38
Net Interest
1225
Tax Rate
0.17
Nci
10

Accounting Policy

Operating margins are AI GAAP-like normalized margins AFTER ordinary clinical R&D, SBC, collaboration royalties, depreciation and acquisition amortization, before interest and tax. Full DA is added back once. They are not derived from non-GAAP EPS that already excludes amortization. A $10m annual NCI allowance converts estimated consolidated profits to common NI; consolidated DA approximation is immaterial versus Merck scale. Net interest declines with explicit debt repayment. No dividend/buyback deduction and no cash/net-debt bridge after FCFE discounting. No speculative asset-sale or equity-portfolio NAV uplift; small investment income remains in normalized earnings rather than being capitalized again.

Financing

H1 net borrowing $4,811m reflects debt issuance and repayment including matched $6bn term draw/repayment. Scenarios forecast deleveraging with lower interest rather than recurring borrowing-funded distributions. Existing cash is not added on top of cash-inclusive earnings. Blackstone up-to-$700m 2026 development funding is not extrapolated; future associated royalties are embedded in operating margins.

Discount rate & long-run growth

Anchor Date: 2026-10-01
Nominal Treasury: 0.0529
Implied ERP: 0.042
Source: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm
Base Hypothesis: AI beta 0.85 (not a measured regression) implies 8.86% nominal CAPM anchor; about 0.64% additional patent/pipeline execution allowance yields 9.5%. Bear 11%, bull 8.5% are explicit risk hypotheses, not observed market quotes.
Terminal: Bear 1%, base 2%, bull 2.5% nominal mature cash-flow growth after the 2036 transition. Fed 2% PCE objective is context, not a company inflation rule. Terminal growth stays below cost of equity; launch opportunity is not extrapolated perpetually.

Confidence & limitations

Reported financial facts: high for retrieved official reports
Forecast: medium-low; clinical probabilities, net pricing, patent timing and new-product uptake dominate
Rate Assumptions: medium-low; sourced monthly anchor but beta/premium are AI hypotheses

Evidence against the thesis

2026 Q3 growth franchises and Keytruda/Qlex sales were strong, making severe immediate collapse too pessimistic.
Gardasil Q3 recovery does not establish durable China demand recovery.
Management opportunity estimates may understate successful new indications but are unweighted commercial opportunities and can overstate realized replacement sales.
External innovation can require future cash far above the recurring reserve, while patent litigation and IRA outcomes may differ materially.

Limitations

Latest Q3 release and disclosures were read, but a full Q3 10-Q cash-flow statement was not independently available at research time. H1 10-Q is the latest quarterly cash-flow anchor retrieved; update when Q3 full filing becomes available.
Forecast components are explicit AI hypotheses, not reported results. The fixed diluted share count approximates future dilution and buybacks.
Annual-end discount convention places FY2027 at t=1 from the model snapshot, a coarse annual convention around October 2026; no stub-year precision is claimed.

Ai Review

Passed: true
Scope: Checked patent-transition horizon, amortization/non-GAAP double counting, acquisition cash normalization, borrowing/interest consistency, NCI, currency/share units, evidence/forecast separation, terminal positivity and rate spread. Numerical validation alone is not research approval.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed Q3 2026 diluted weighted-average shares, 2,478 million. Q3 profitable-period denominator is used rather than 9M antidilutive 2,471m loss-period denominator. No assumed buyback accretion. SBC remains an economic expense in NI without addback; future dilution is approximated by a fixed denominator, not a detailed option schedule.

2478 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

2025 Form 10-K ↗

Published 2026-02-24 · Report 2025-12-31

2026 H1 Form 10-Q; publication day not independently confirmed ↗

· Report 2026-06-30

Q3 2026 earnings release ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-09-30

Q3 product sales and GAAP reconciliation ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-09-30

Q3 earnings call transcript ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-09-30

October implied ERP 4.20%, Treasury 5.29%; monthly observation ↗

Published 2026-10-01 · Report 2026-10-01

2% longer-run PCE inflation objective ↗

Published 2025-08-22

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FCFE · AI estimate

AMAT Applied Materials Inc.

$421.66

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:01.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$109.53

BASE · USD / SHARE$257.16

BULL · USD / SHARE$460.90

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-64.0%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Applied Materials faces an AI-led equipment upcycle with expansion spending and strategic packaging investment. This draft models annual business drivers rather than extending the existing FCF proxy.

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 10.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $109.53 / share

Semicap downturn and export restrictions reduce orders after initial AI demand; profitability stays below management long-term ambition. Expansion absorbs cash even in downturn. Larger hypothetical Besi funding reserve. All forecasts are AI scenario hypotheses. Discount rates are analyst risk assumptions, not calibrated CAPM observations.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+9,620

Depreciation+703

Capital expenditure-3,145

Working capital-488.3

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-2,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 46.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	9,620	703	3,145	488.34	-2,000	4,689.66
2028	7,659	732.6	2,664	-666	0	6,393.6
2029	8,391.6	839.16	2,447.55	299.7	0	6,483.51
2030	9,265.75	926.58	2,223.78	377.64	0	7,590.91
2031	10,118.16	972.9	1,945.8	333.54	0	8,811.72
2032	10,927.71	1,011.83	1,821.29	280.26	0	9,837.99
2033	11,255.49	1,042.18	1,667.48	218.52	0	10,411.67
2034	11,593.26	1,073.45	1,717.52	225.18	0	10,724.01
2035	11,941.02	1,105.65	1,769.04	231.84	0	11,045.79
2036	12,299.31	1,138.83	1,822.12	238.86	0	11,377.16

2027 adjustment: Hypothetical liquidity reserve for incremental Besi strategic investment; actual consideration unavailable in cited announcement. This is an AI assumption, not a reported transaction price.

Base · Central case $257.16 / share

Leading-edge logic, DRAM and packaging drive elevated near-term growth which fades as the equipment cycle matures; service growth and mix support recurring net margins. Capacity investment is initially high and then moderates. All forecasts are AI scenario hypotheses. Discount rates are analyst risk assumptions, not calibrated CAPM observations.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+11,890

Depreciation+738

Capital expenditure-3,075

Working capital-1,074.1

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 55.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	11,890	738	3,075	1,074.08	-1,500	6,978.92
2028	13,776	918.4	3,214.4	787.2	0	10,692.8
2029	15,658.72	1,111.26	3,283.28	734.72	0	12,751.98
2030	17,456.96	1,309.27	3,000.42	646.56	0	15,119.25
2031	18,504.32	1,445.65	2,602.17	523.68	0	16,824.12
2032	19,429.44	1,517.93	2,428.68	462.56	0	18,056.13
2033	20,206.72	1,578.65	2,210.11	388.64	0	19,186.62
2034	21,015.04	1,641.8	2,298.52	404.16	0	19,954.16
2035	21,855.68	1,707.48	2,390.47	420.32	0	20,752.37
2036	22,729.92	1,775.78	2,486.09	437.12	0	21,582.49

Bull · Optimistic case $460.90 / share

Sustained AI capex and technology transitions drive share gains and higher recurring service contribution; margins approach management long-term non-GAAP ambition but are analyst recurring after-interest/tax estimates, not reported GAAP forecasts. All forecasts are AI scenario hypotheses. Discount rates are analyst risk assumptions, not calibrated CAPM observations.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+13,950

Depreciation+810

Capital expenditure-3,150

Working capital-1,499.8

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 63.4% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	13,950	810	3,150	1,499.82	-1,000	9,110.18
2028	16,992	1,062	3,451.5	1,134	0	13,468.5
2029	20,151.45	1,343.43	3,663.9	1,115.1	0	16,715.88
2030	23,253.62	1,641.43	3,419.65	1,025.92	0	20,449.48
2031	25,578.88	1,880.8	3,385.44	957.46	0	23,116.78
2032	27,625.34	2,031.28	3,250.04	842.66	0	25,563.92
2033	29,282.84	2,153.15	3,014.41	682.5	0	27,739.08
2034	30,746.88	2,260.8	3,165.12	602.84	0	29,239.72
2035	32,284.36	2,373.85	3,323.39	633.08	0	30,701.74
2036	33,898.68	2,492.55	3,489.57	664.72	0	32,236.94

Reported Facts Note

USD millions; FY2026 Q3 and nine-month actuals are separate periods. Only reported facts in sources are actuals. FY2026 bridge34287=24037 nine-month revenue +10250Q4 guidance midpoint, not FY2026actual.

Management Vs AI

2027stronggrowth and 2030margin/share ambitions are management forward-looking statements. All2027-2036 revenues, recurring margins, reinvestment and financing values are AI scenario estimates.

Financing policy

Zero net borrowing assumes gross maturities refinanced at stable nominal debt and expansion funded by operations. No debt balance is subtracted from PV of equity cash flows. Dividends/buybacks are distributions, not operating outflows.

Non Operating Assets

No separate cash or investment addition. Ordinary investment income is implicitly included in NI margin; investment fair-value gains are not extrapolated. Existing Besi and other holdings are not separately marked to market, so this is not a complete asset-by-asset equity appraisal.

Working Capital

Noncash operating WC investment equals incremental sales times scenario ratio. Declining sales release working capital. This is an analyst approximation; historical reported operating-asset-liability cash change also contains tax/other movements and is not assumed identical.

What could go wrong

Export-control changes and substantial China exposure can disrupt shipments; this draft does not quantify a newly enacted restriction without verified primary evidence.
Equipment cycles/customer concentration can reverse near-term growth.
EPIC and capacity spending may persist longer than modeled.
Incremental Besi purchase price is not disclosed in the retrieved release; a hypothetical1000-2000reserve is included and must be replaced with announced consideration.
Non-GAAP management targets do not imply corresponding GAAP net margins.

Limitations

Unreviewed, low-confidence forecast, not recommendation.
No exact fiscal2026stub; first cash flow treated as one full year from valuation date.
Cost of equity is a scenario risk assumption; dated risk-free/beta/ERP calibration pending.
Fixed shares and simplified tax/WC schedules require detailed reconciliation.
FY2026full-year results scheduled for2026-11-12 are not yet available.

Confidence & limitations

low; initial source-backed scenario draft with unresolved Besi consideration and valuation-timing approximations

Share count & valuation basis

Frozen800million diluted weighted-average shares from Q3FY2026. NI margins retain economic SBC expense; no SBC addback and no speculative benefit from future buybacks. Actual future diluted claims require review.

800 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

reported results ↗

Published 2026-08-13

management guidance ↗

Published 2026-08-13

management long-term targets ↗

Published 2026-10-13

company capital investment announcement ↗

Published 2026-10-12

announced strategic investment ↗

Published 2026-10-26

historical reported results ↗

Published 2025-11-13

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

CAT Caterpillar Inc.

$647.39

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:02.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$179.23

BASE · USD / SHARE$334.03

BULL · USD / SHARE$503.20

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-93.8%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Caterpillar的估值關鍵是資料中心電力與服務成長，能否抵銷工程／礦業循環與擴產現金需求。這份草稿把工業業務與融資／保險子公司分開：保留金融部門所需股本後，才計入可分配現金；不把金融放款當一般存貨，也不把借新債當成永久股東收益。

bear · Equity cost 12.0% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 10.3% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 9.3% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $179.23 / share

AIdownside: powerbacklogconversiondoesnotpreventconstruction/miningdownturn. Industrialrevenue73→80.567bn, netmargin13.5→15%; tariffs/capacitycosts andcreditlossesreduceearnings. Workingcapitaluseincludesadvance-repayment/dealerinventoryrisk. Financialassetsstay45–47bn with15%equitybuffer; initialrequiredcapitalexceedsfinancialNI, fundedbyindustrialcash. No sustainedborrowingoradvancewindfall.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+10,505

Depreciation+2,000

Capital expenditure-3,900

Working capital-1,500

Net borrowing-500

Other adjustments-1,800

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 12.00% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 66.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	10,505	2,000	3,900	1,500	-500	-1,800	4,805
2028	10,624	2,100	3,900	500	-500	-625	7,199
2029	11,332	2,200	3,900	500	0	-625	8,507
2030	12,072	2,300	3,950	550	0	-625	9,247
2031	12,845	2,400	4,000	600	0	-625	10,020

2027 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6750 targetequity minus5500 openingequity=1250; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI650 includedinNI, industrialNI=73000×13.50%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2028 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6825 targetequity minus6750 openingequity=75; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI670 includedinNI, industrialNI=73730×13.50%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2029 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6900 targetequity minus6825 openingequity=75; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI700 includedinNI, industrialNI=75942×14.00%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2030 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6975 targetequity minus6900 openingequity=75; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI730 includedinNI, industrialNI=78220×14.50%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2031 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=7050 targetequity minus6975 openingequity=75; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI760 includedinNI, industrialNI=80567×15.00%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

Base · Central case $334.03 / share

AIcentral: datacenterpower/turbinesandservicesoutgrowmatureconstruction/mining; industrialrevenue82→97.782bn decelerates5→4%, netmargin16.2→16.5% aftercapacitycosts/tax. Capex~4.6%ofsales supportsdelivery. Do notannualize4bnYTDcustomeradvances. Financialassets48→57.5bn require13%equity andretaincapitalbeforecashreachesparent; debtneutralindustrialrefinancing.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+14,184

Depreciation+2,100

Capital expenditure-3,800

Working capital-800

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,190

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.33% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 70.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	14,184	2,100	3,800	800	-1,190	10,494
2028	15,080	2,200	4,000	800	-710	11,770
2029	15,937	2,300	4,200	850	-775	12,412
2030	16,593	2,400	4,400	850	-775	12,968
2031	17,274	2,500	4,550	900	-775	13,549

2027 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6240 targetequity minus5500 openingequity=740; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 400;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI900 includedinNI, industrialNI=82000×16.20%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2028 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6500 targetequity minus6240 openingequity=260; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 400;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI960 includedinNI, industrialNI=86100×16.40%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2029 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6825 targetequity minus6500 openingequity=325; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 400;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1020 includedinNI, industrialNI=90405×16.50%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2030 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=7150 targetequity minus6825 openingequity=325; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 400;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1080 includedinNI, industrialNI=94021×16.50%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2031 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=7475 targetequity minus7150 openingequity=325; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 400;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1140 includedinNI, industrialNI=97782×16.50%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

Bull · Optimistic case $503.20 / share

AIupside: powergenerationcapacityandservicesconvertbacklograpidly, constructionandminingremainhealthy. Industrialsales87→112.963bn decelerates8→6%, margin17.5→18% staysbelowrecentseasonaloperatingmargin. Investment/WCscaleup; captiveassetgrowthneeds12.5%equity, notfreeleveragedearnings. Nominalterminal3%revertsbelowexplicitgrowth.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+16,275

Depreciation+2,200

Capital expenditure-4,200

Working capital-1,000

Net borrowing0

Other adjustments-1,300

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.30% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 76.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Other	FCFE
2027	16,275	2,200	4,200	1,000	-1,300	11,975
2028	17,875	2,350	4,500	1,100	-1,050	13,575
2029	19,347	2,500	4,800	1,200	-1,050	14,797
2030	20,532	2,650	5,100	1,250	-1,050	15,782
2031	21,783	2,800	5,400	1,300	-1,050	16,833

2027 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6250 targetequity minus5500 openingequity=750; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1050 includedinNI, industrialNI=87000×17.50%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2028 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=6750 targetequity minus6250 openingequity=500; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1150 includedinNI, industrialNI=93960×17.80%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2029 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=7250 targetequity minus6750 openingequity=500; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1250 includedinNI, industrialNI=100537×18.00%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2030 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=7750 targetequity minus7250 openingequity=500; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1350 includedinNI, industrialNI=106569×18.00%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

2031 adjustment: AIhybrid equityFCFE: FinancialProducts requiredretainedcapital=8250 targetequity minus7750 openingequity=500; strategiccashacquisitions/investments 500;50 industrialcash/pension/NCIriskreserve. FinancialNI1450 includedinNI, industrialNI=112963×18.00%. FinancialDA/capex/receivableloanoriginations/debtcashflows areNOTindustrialcashcomponents andnotaddedagain.

Reported financial facts

USDmillions: nine-month2026 industrialNI8790 andFinancialProductsNI639; industrialDA1225/CFO11534/capex2009. Customeradvancesadded4002cash. FPSeptassets45029/equity5431, includesinsurance. Q3dilutedshares460.9m. FY2025industrialCFO12278/capex2794 vsFY2024 11437/1988; enterpriseCFO11739vs12035. Thesearefacts, notFCFEforecasts.

Management guidance

OfficialOct29release reportsstrongend-markets/backlog andsegmentvolume/pricegrowth; thesearecurrentresults, notguaranteedforecast. FY2025annualresourceallocationprioritizesmid-Acreditquality andreturnofindustrialFCFover-time. Thismodeldoesnotclaimmanagementguidancefor2027–31NIorfinancialcapitalratios.

AI forecast assumptions

Industrial Drivers: EachyearNI=industrialsales×statednetmargin + FinancialProductsNI; netmarginsreflectinterest,tax,SBCandordinaryrestructuring. Basepower/servicesoutgrowconstruction/mining, butsalesgrowthdecelerates; bearcyclesdown. Internalfinancingcosts/discountsaretreatedasnetindustrialearningscosts, notincrementalgroupvalue.
Financial Capital: Starting2026year-endFinancialProductsrequired-equityanchor5500 isAIbridgefromSept5431, notreportedDecbalance. Targetequity=assets×15/13/12.5%bear/base/bull. Annualretain=requiredendminusopening; financialNIlessretain isdistributablefinancialcash. Firstbear650NIminus1250retain=-600cashneed. Targetratiosnotregulatoryrequirements; conservativecapitalpolicieschosenfrombalancebasis andcovenantheadroom.
Funding Stress: Treatallfinancialnon-equityfundingdebtlike, ratherthanonlydebt, forconservativeleverageandintereststress. Forecastleverage≤7x vs10xcovenantceiling; modelpretaxNIandinterestimplycoverageabove1.15x. TheseareapproximateaggregateFPstressratios, NOTreportedCatFinancialcovenantratios. Assumeexternalloanfinancing/refinancingavailable; creditfreezeisadversecaseoutsidecentralvalues.
Industrial Cash: PositiveannualWCusesreflectinventory/tradereceivableslessAP/advances;4bnYTDadvanceinflowisnotperpetuated. PP&Eforecastgrossindustrialcashonly. FPleasedequipment/receivablesgrowthandfundingarecapturedbyretainedcapital; nofinancialDAaddbackorloan/debtcashdoublecount. Strategiccashinvestment400–500/year and50cashpension/NCIreserveareAIhypotheses.

Financing & dilution

IndustrynetBorrowing0base/bullassumesmaturityrefinancingatstabledebt, bearrepays500twoyears. Interest/taxinNI. FinancialborrowingisnotpassedthroughasindustrialFCFE; financialrequiredcapitalcapturesgrowthfundingneed. Intercompanydividendsandloansarenotadditivetogroupcash. No debt subtractionafterequitydiscounting. No buybacks/dividendsdeducted; fixeddilutedshareswithSBCretainedinNI.

Discount rate & long-run growth

NominalUSD Ke anchorOct1NYUTreasury5.29%+ERP4.20%×AIbeta1.20=10.33%base; betaexplicitcyclicalindustrialhypothesis, notmeasuredregression. Bear12%/bull9.3% risksensitivities. Terminalg1.5/2.5/3% reflects maturevolume/pricingandcreditcapitalrequirements; notperpetualdatacenterboom. Monthlymarketinputsnotcurrentspot; allg<Ke.

What could go wrong

Powercapacityexecutionanddatacenterdemandmaydisappoint; construction/miningremaincyclical.
Dealerinventory/advancereversals andtariffs/freightcostscanconsumeprofitgrowth.
Captivecreditloss/fundingfreezeandparent-supportobligationscanrequirecapitalbeyondsimpletargetratios. FinancialProductsincludesinsurance; aggregateequitybufferisnotlegalentitystatutoryclearance.
LatestCFSCseparateQ3capitalfootnotesnotlocated; June30leverage/covenantratiobasisisolderthanSeptrelease. Noexistingfinancialexcesscapitaladded.
Fixedsharesandannualdiscounttiming, uncalibratedbetaandterminalcapitalpolicy limitprecision.

Evidence against the thesis

Currentall-threesegmentgrowth andhistoricallylowpastdues supportstrongerresults. Butcreditprovisionsincreasedandhigherearningassetsneedfunding; muchrecentcashgrowthcamefromadvances. Financialearningscannotbeassumed100%freelydistributable.

Confidence & limitations

Low-moderateoverall: detailedofficialconsolidatingdata supportsindustrial/financialseparation; forecastmargin/capitalpolicyandcredit-marketaccessremainhypotheses. Aggregatefinancialcapitalstressisnotanauditedregulatory/legalentitydividendapproval. Noequivalencebetweennumericvalidationandresearchverification.

Forecast timing

Fullcalendaryears2027–2031;2026yearendfinancialequitybridge5500isAIhypothesis. Remaining2026cashnotincluded. Calculatorperiod1year-end2027approximateslate2026anchor, ignoringabouttwomonths; donotinterpretnarrowgapsasprecisevalue.

Evidence & model checks

SubstantiveAIreviewcheckedconsolidatingprofitandFPdefinition, finance-receivablereclassification, relatedpartyfunding/dividends, industrialcustomeradvances, latestcreditquality, leverage/interestcoverageandshareclaims. CapitalretentionreplacestheindustrialFCFformulaONLYforfinancialsubsidiarycomponent; consolidatedforecastNIincludesbothprofitsbutonlyindustrialDA/capex/WC. No financialloanoriginationsorborrowingscountedasfreevalue. PositivefinalFCFEandg<Kecheckedseparately. ActualJuneCFSCcovenantanchors andMissouri/Bermudasolvencyoversightreviewed. Aggregatecapitalforecastisaprovisionalriskbuffer, notbanklegalentityapproval. Noopeningcapitalrelease, pooledtrappedcashadd-on orfinancialborrowingswindfall.

Reported Covenant Anchors

CatFinancialJune302026 (notSeptember): coverage1.54x versus1.15xmin; six-monthcovenantleverage7.96x versus10xmax. Credit-agreementratiosarenotGAAPaggregateFinancialProductsratios. Separatecaptivefundingreportisolderthanlatestearnings.

Insurance Capital Constraint

FY2025annualreport: Missouri/NAICminimumsolvency andBermudaMonetaryAuthoritysolvencyfilings applytoseparateinsuranceentities. Group13%targetequityisnota substituteformallyverifiedstatutorysurplus. Noopeningexcesscapitalreleaseisassumed; forecastsretaincapitalasfinancialassetsgrow. Scenariofinancialdistributionsareconditionalonlegalentitysolvency, collateral/liquidityandlenderconstraints. Iftheseconstraintspreventdistribution, actualparentFCFEislowerandadditionalcapitalmaybeneeded. Noregulatoryclearanceclaimed.

Comparison Eligibility

Initialcompany-specifichybridAIscenarioestimate, low-moderateconfidence. Noobserveddiscountsignalasserted; noapprovedvaluation. Substitutecapital/legalentityevidencebeforenarrowgapsorreliablebuyinterpretation.

Historical Industrial Cash Bridge

Period: nineMonths2026
Ni Common: 8790
Da: 1225
Change WC: -890
Other Cash Reconciliation: 629
CFO: 11534
Explanation: CashNIbasis8788 is2belowcommonNI8790 dueNCI. Rawother=684deferredtax+139divestiture+158other-317otherassets-33otherliabilities=631; commonNIbridge629 adjusts2. CurrentWCcash= -1146AR-4114inventory+1635AP+412accruals+101wages+4002advances=890. HistoricalCFOisnotcommonFCFE, includesrelated-partyfinancingandnoncashSBC; forwardmodelusespositiveWCandretainsSBCexpense.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed460.9million Q32026 dilutedweightedshares (officialearningspage15), nofuturebuybackaccretion. NIforecastretainsSBCexpense; noSBCcashaddback. CashUSDmillions/sharesmillions; fullydilutedcurrentclaimapproximation, notprojectedshareledger.

460.9 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Official earnings financial statements ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-09-30

MP&E/FinancialProducts separation, cashflows/balances, shares and segmentgrowth; pages15–25.

Official audited annual report ↗

Published 2026-02-13 · Report 2025-12-31

2025/2024 history, separateindustrial/captivefunding, creditcovenants andcompanyFCFdefinition.

Official CatFinancial10-Q ↗

· Report 2026-06-30

LatestseparateCatFinancialreportlocated; supportagreement, interestcoverage/leveragecovenants andfunding. ThisissubsidiaryJune, notSeptcurrentcovenantratio.

Official captivefinancialearnings ↗

Published 2026-10-29 · Report 2026-09-30

Currentcreditloss/margin/assetgrowth evidence; financialearningsnotindustrialWC.

Academic monthlyrateinputs ↗

· Report 2026-10-01

USDnominalTreasury5.29%, impliedERP4.20%, monthlyanchor notcurrentspot.

Company news

Regular close monitor · 2026-10-29T20:00:00Z

CAT daily close change -9.25%

Headline candidate · Financial impact has not been verified.

FCFE · AI estimate

HD Home Depot, Inc.

$328.98

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:02.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$108.01

BASE · USD / SHARE$201.97

BULL · USD / SHARE$294.94

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-62.9%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Home Depot’s valuation depends on whether a gradual home-improvement recovery and Pro/SRS integration translate into cash after store investment, trade working capital and debt reduction. This AI model separates retail and distribution economics, removes recurring tariff-refund expectations and explicitly charges acquisition and finance-lease cash. Base assumptions are a recovery case, not reported guidance.

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 1.5%base · Equity cost 10.0% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $108.01 / share

AI downside: housing turnover and larger discretionary projects remain weak, while distribution integration fails to offset labor/input inflation. Primary retail sales recover only slowly after an initial contraction, margins stay below normalized recent levels, and SRS earns modest margins. Capex cannot be cut to zero without impairing stores and fulfillment; debt paydown, lease principal and recurring tuck-in costs constrain cash.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+11,850

Depreciation+4,500

Capital expenditure-4,400

Working capital-500

Net borrowing-2,500

Other adjustments-1,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 66.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	11,850	4,500	4,400	500	-2,500	-1,000	7,950
2028	11,721.38	4,600	4,400	300	-1,500	-1,000	9,121.38
2029	12,454.5	4,700	4,500	400	-1,000	-1,000	10,254.5
2030	13,158	4,800	4,700	500	-500	-1,000	11,258
2031	13,739.25	4,900	4,900	550	0	-1,000	12,189.25

2027 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 650 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2028 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 650 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2029 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 650 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2030 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 650 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2031 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 650 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

Base · Central case $201.97 / share

AI central case: small-project demand is resilient, home-improvement activity gradually recovers, and SRS cross-selling/fulfillment improves revenue and operating mix. Primary retail and SRS are forecast separately with reinvestment, trade receivables/inventory needs and conservative post-acquisition deleveraging. Tariff refund benefits are not repeated. Growth comes from organic volume, service reach and distribution integration rather than borrowing-led value.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+15,263.8

Depreciation+4,500

Capital expenditure-4,500

Working capital-600

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-850

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 10.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 72.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	15,263.84	4,500	4,500	600	-2,000	-850	11,813.84
2028	16,313.32	4,650	4,700	650	-1,000	-850	13,763.32
2029	17,463.28	4,800	4,900	750	-500	-850	15,263.28
2030	18,472.33	4,900	5,150	800	0	-850	16,572.33
2031	19,346.86	5,000	5,400	850	0	-850	17,246.86

2027 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 500 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2028 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 500 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2029 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 500 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2030 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 500 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2031 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 500 plus finance-lease principal 350 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

Bull · Optimistic case $294.94 / share

AI upside: recovered housing turnover and big-ticket projects combine with successful Pro/SRS share gains. Retail operating leverage and HVAC/building-products synergies raise normalized margins. Faster growth requires higher capex, noncash working capital and ongoing acquisition/lease cash uses; no repeated tariff windfall or automatic buyback accretion.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+17,022.1

Depreciation+4,600

Capital expenditure-4,800

Working capital-900

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-1,075

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 77.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	17,022.1	4,600	4,800	900	-2,000	-1,075	12,847.1
2028	19,095	4,800	5,200	1,050	-1,000	-1,100	15,545
2029	20,947.5	5,000	5,600	1,150	-500	-1,125	17,572.5
2030	22,605.82	5,250	6,000	1,250	0	-1,150	19,455.82
2031	23,981.8	5,500	6,400	1,350	0	-1,175	20,556.8

2027 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 700 plus finance-lease principal 375 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2028 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 700 plus finance-lease principal 400 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2029 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 700 plus finance-lease principal 425 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2030 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 700 plus finance-lease principal 450 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

2031 adjustment: AI cash deductions: recurring tuck-in acquisition reserve 700 plus finance-lease principal 475 USDmillions. Conventional cash debt issuance/repayment only is in netBorrowing; finance-lease principal is excluded there, preventing double deduction. Not a reported forward amount; no SBC add-back, tariff refund, asset-sale windfall, common dividend or buyback subtraction.

Reported financial facts

FY2025 commonNI14156, cashflowDA3514+607=4121, CFO16325, capex3679, acquired-business cash5410; FY2024 CFO19810/capex3485. H1FY2026 NI8055, cashflowDA1839+349=2188, CFO11422, capex1724, acquired-business cash1333, cashdebtnet−3134, dilutedshares996 (USDmillions). AtQ2, tariff refunds received730, ofwhich685 reducedCOGS; benefits must not be extrapolated. The H1 Primary/SRS sales were80569/9057. These are historical reported figures.

Management guidance

August18 FY2026: sales+2.5–4.5%, compsflat–2%, operatingmargin12.4–12.6%, GAAPEPSflat–4%growth, capex~2.5%ofsales, netinterest~2300, tax~24.3%. Guidance incorporates refunds offsetting input-cost pressures. March24 acquisition plan targeted2x leverage byQ2FY2027; future deleveraging here is an AI trajectory, not a principal repayment promise.

AI forecast assumptions

AllFY2027–31 arrays are AI hypotheses. Base Primarysales158000→184000 and operatingmargin13.4→14.0%; SRSsales23000→30700 and margin4.4→5.2%. Separate segment earnings less interest and tax generate NI; exact arithmetic stored in forecastDriverAudit. D&A tracks store/distribution/intangible assets; capex4500→5400 sustains fulfillment and stores. WC600→850 reflects receivables/inventory net of trade payables, without assuming indefinite supplier financing. Other deductions retain500/year acquisition reserve and350 lease principal. Bear and bull vary business margins and reinvestment, not just one FCF CAGR.

Forecast Driver Audit

Scenario
bear
Fiscal Year
2027
Primary Sales
150000
Srs Sales
20000
Primary Operating Margin
0.118
Srs Operating Margin
0.025
Operating Income
18200
Net Interest
2400
Tax Rate
0.25
Ni Common
11850
Scenario
bear
Fiscal Year
2028
Primary Sales
151000
Srs Sales
20500
Primary Operating Margin
0.116
Srs Operating Margin
0.025
Operating Income
18028.5
Net Interest
2400
Tax Rate
0.25
Ni Common
11721.375
Scenario
bear
Fiscal Year
2029
Primary Sales
154000
Srs Sales
21000
Primary Operating Margin
0.119
Srs Operating Margin
0.03
Operating Income
18956
Net Interest
2350
Tax Rate
0.25
Ni Common
12454.5
Scenario
bear
Fiscal Year
2030
Primary Sales
158000
Srs Sales
22000
Primary Operating Margin
0.121
Srs Operating Margin
0.033
Operating Income
19844
Net Interest
2300
Tax Rate
0.25
Ni Common
13158
Scenario
bear
Fiscal Year
2031
Primary Sales
162000
Srs Sales
23000
Primary Operating Margin
0.122
Srs Operating Margin
0.035
Operating Income
20569
Net Interest
2250
Tax Rate
0.25
Ni Common
13739.25
Scenario
base
Fiscal Year
2027
Primary Sales
158000
Srs Sales
23000
Primary Operating Margin
0.134
Srs Operating Margin
0.044
Operating Income
22184
Net Interest
2100
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
15263.84
Scenario
base
Fiscal Year
2028
Primary Sales
164000
Srs Sales
24700
Primary Operating Margin
0.136
Srs Operating Margin
0.047
Operating Income
23464.9
Net Interest
2000
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
16313.324
Scenario
base
Fiscal Year
2029
Primary Sales
171000
Srs Sales
26600
Primary Operating Margin
0.138
Srs Operating Margin
0.05
Operating Income
24928
Net Interest
1950
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
17463.28
Scenario
base
Fiscal Year
2030
Primary Sales
178000
Srs Sales
28700
Primary Operating Margin
0.139
Srs Operating Margin
0.051
Operating Income
26205.7
Net Interest
1900
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
18472.332
Scenario
base
Fiscal Year
2031
Primary Sales
184000
Srs Sales
30700
Primary Operating Margin
0.14
Srs Operating Margin
0.052
Operating Income
27356.4
Net Interest
1900
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
19346.864
Scenario
bull
Fiscal Year
2027
Primary Sales
165000
Srs Sales
24500
Primary Operating Margin
0.14
Srs Operating Margin
0.055
Operating Income
24447.5
Net Interest
2050
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
17022.1
Scenario
bull
Fiscal Year
2028
Primary Sales
175000
Srs Sales
27500
Primary Operating Margin
0.145
Srs Operating Margin
0.06
Operating Income
27025
Net Interest
1900
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
19095
Scenario
bull
Fiscal Year
2029
Primary Sales
185000
Srs Sales
30500
Primary Operating Margin
0.148
Srs Operating Margin
0.065
Operating Income
29362.5
Net Interest
1800
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
20947.5
Scenario
bull
Fiscal Year
2030
Primary Sales
195000
Srs Sales
33500
Primary Operating Margin
0.15
Srs Operating Margin
0.067
Operating Income
31494.5
Net Interest
1750
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
22605.82
Scenario
bull
Fiscal Year
2031
Primary Sales
205000
Srs Sales
36500
Primary Operating Margin
0.15
Srs Operating Margin
0.07
Operating Income
33305
Net Interest
1750
Tax Rate
0.24
Ni Common
23981.8

Financing & dilution

Conventional debt cash net−2000/−1000/−500/0/0 in base; existing interest/tax are already in NI. Cash debt includes refinancing of maturities; assuming netzero later does not mean no gross repayments. Finance-lease principal is charged separately in otherAdjustments, cashcapex excludes new noncash leased assets and operating rents remain in NI. No double subtraction of opening debt or lease liabilities. No automatic excesscash addition: normal liquidity and investment income remain within the earnings framework. Common dividends/buybacks are distributions, never extra operating costs. Equity issuance proceeds are not value-creating cashflow.

Discount rate & long-run growth

NominalUSD framework anchored separately toNYUOctober1 Treasury5.29% and impliedERP4.20%. AIbeta1.1 yields9.91%, roundedbase10%; beta is a hypothesis, not measuredHDregression. Bear11.5%/bull9% are risk sensitivities. Terminalg1.5/2.5/3% represents mature nominal volume/pricing plus sustainable reinvestment, withFed2%PCEgoal only inflation context. Nominallongrungrowth is not set from companyinflation alone; allg<Ke. These month-old anchors require refresh, not an Oct30spotCAPM claim.

What could go wrong

High financing rates and weak housing turnover can postpone discretionary remodel recovery.
Pro credit/inventory expansion and integration spending can absorb earnings gains.
Trade policy and tariff refunds distort comparisons; refunds are not a repeatable operating-growth engine.
Debt refinancing, lease commitments and future acquisition size may diverge materially from the explicit cash reserves.
FiveyearDCF and fixedshares are approximations; terminalvalue remains sensitive to rates, reinvestment and margins.

Evidence against the thesis

Recent sales growth, online fulfillment and broader Pro distribution support the recovery thesis, but H1 transaction contraction despite higher ticket and Primary/SRS mix warn against treating all acquisition-led sales as organic demand. Refund-assisted quarterly margin and lower historical CFO challenge a straight-line rebound. A prolonged housing stagnation supports the bear case; faster large-project recovery could make base too conservative.

Confidence & limitations

Moderate on business structure and extracted financial inputs; moderate-low on multiyear forecasts. Rates contain an explicit hypotheticalbeta; acquisition cash and lease schedules are normalized assumptions. Numerical validation is separate from substantive research and does not prove market mispricing.

Forecast timing

Year labels2027–2031 are HomeDepot fiscalyearnames, approximately endingJan2028–Jan2032. FY2027 is whollyfuture atOct302026. Calculator period1 discounts the entireFY2027 atone year, versusactual~15months toend; this modestly overstates PV versusexactdateddiscounting. RemainingFY2026cash excluded rather than counting elapsedquartercash asfuture. Fullstubvaluation is not provided.

Historical cash-flow reconciliation

FY2025

Ni Common: 14156
Da: 4121
Capex: 3679
Change WC: 2386
Net Borrowing: 1269
Other Adjustments: -4976
Adjustment Reason: Reported cash bridge: WC=−(107−1498+124−1058−61)=2386; conventionalandlease debtcashnet4148+2161−5040=1269. Other=reportedSBC522−taxpayable698+deferredtax418+otheroperating192−acquisition5410=−4976. HistoricalSBCcashreconciliation only; forecastdoesnotaddSBC. Cashflowdebtlineincludesfinanceleaseprincipal so do not subtractleaseagain. Excludes109otherinvesting and−145otherfinancing.
Fcfe: 8505

H1FY2026

Ni Common: 8055
Da: 2188
Capex: 1724
Change WC: -387
Net Borrowing: -3134
Other Adjustments: -541
Adjustment Reason: WC=−(−1233−831−225+2524+152)=−387; debtnet−216+122−3040=−3134; other=SBC326+taxpayable183+deferredtax58+otheroperating225−acquisition1333=−541. Cashflowreportedbridge only, not annualized forecast; excludes46otherinvesting and−116otherfinancing.
Fcfe: 5231

Evidence & model checks

AI evidence/model checks reconciled cashflow D&A including costofsales and acquiredintangibles instead of using only P&LdisplayedD&A; WC cash signs, seasonal H1 timing, acquisition consideration, supplierfinance versus conventional debt, tariff normalization, cashleaseprincipal, SBC and sharebasis. Forecast componentyears and terminalFCFEpositive checked separately. No previousHD researchedmodel was present.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed1000million diluted-claims approximation, above reported Q2/H1FY2026 diluted weighted996million and near August18 outstanding997.690million plus awards. Existing SBC remains an NI expense with no cashflow addback; future buybacks do not automatically reduce shares. Modest issuance/dilution approximation, not a precise future share registry.

1000 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

official_10K ↗

Published 2026-03-18 · Report 2026-02-01

FY2025 and historical FY2024/FY2023 cashflow; lease/debt cash, shares, acquisition accounting.

official_10Q ↗

Published 2026-08-25 · Report 2026-08-02

H1 cashflow, Primary/SRS drivers, refund normalization, shares, debt, Mingledorff acquisition and supplier-finance treatment.

official_earnings_guidance ↗

Published 2026-08-18 · Report 2026-08-02

FY2026 sales, EPS, capex and margin guidance; excludes any assertion future results are achieved.

official_acquisition_plan ↗

Published 2026-03-24

Mingledorff funding cash/debt and targeted2x leverage by Q2FY2027.

official_acquisition_close ↗

Published 2026-05-11

Completed HVAC distribution expansion. Acquisition announcement did not disclose consideration; subsequent10Q does.

official_news_index ↗

Accessed2026-10-30; recent product/delivery/AI initiatives are not assigned unsupported numerical earnings uplift.

official_calendar ↗

UpcomingQ3FY2026 results event November17; no Q3actual inferred.

academic_market_inputs ↗

· Report 2026-10-01

NominalUSD Treasury5.29%, impliedERP4.20%; monthly risk anchor not Oct30spot.

policy_inflation_context ↗

Published 2025-08-22

2% longer-run PCE inflation goal; not HD-specific growth or equity cost.

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

PM Philip Morris International Inc

$208.50

USD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-29T20:00:02.000Z regular market · Yahoo Finance

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · daily unadjusted close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · USD / SHARE$60.66

BASE · USD / SHARE$121.33

BULL · USD / SHARE$182.55

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-71.8%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

Philip Morris的估值取決於IQOS／ZYN等非燃燒產品能否在提高行銷與產能投資後，持續補上紙菸量縮的缺口。近期現金流受退休金退款與菸稅支付時點幫助，不能直接永久外推；模型分開推估兩類業務、資本支出、營運資金、少數股權及去槓桿。這是財務情境研究，不是產品健康聲稱或投資背書。

bear · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 0.5%base · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.0%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 2.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case $60.66 / share

AIadversecase:smokefreegrowsonly~6%ascompetition/promotionerodeZYNpricingandIQOSadoption; combustiblevolume-4to-5%andpricing+2to+3%cannotfullyoffsetdecline. FXandenergycostshurtcashmargins. Capacityspendandexciseinventoryneedsremainhigh. Netincomeonly11.5–12.2bn, withpermanentregulatory/cashreserveshigherthanbase. Noassumedpensionrefund,assetgainornewborrowingrescue.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+11,500

Depreciation+2,100

Capital expenditure-1,900

Working capital-800

Net borrowing-1,000

Other adjustments-900

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 0.50% · Terminal value 61.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	11,500	2,100	1,900	800	-1,000	-900	9,000
2028	11,600	2,050	1,950	700	-500	-900	9,600
2029	11,700	1,950	2,000	650	0	-900	10,100
2030	11,900	1,850	2,050	600	0	-900	10,200
2031	12,200	1,750	2,100	600	0	-900	10,350

2027 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -200, taxAndSettlementCash -300, strategicInvestment -150, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -250. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2028 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -200, taxAndSettlementCash -300, strategicInvestment -150, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -250. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2029 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -200, taxAndSettlementCash -300, strategicInvestment -150, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -250. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2030 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -200, taxAndSettlementCash -300, strategicInvestment -150, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -250. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2031 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -200, taxAndSettlementCash -300, strategicInvestment -150, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -250. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

Base · Central case $121.33 / share

AIcentralcase:smokefreenetrevenuegrows~11–12%throughIQOSmixandinternationalexpansionplusZYNUSdistribution, whilecombustiblespricing4–5%offsetsvolume-3to-4%, leavingrevenuenearestable. U.S.brandinvestmentlimitsnear-termmargins. NI13.4→17.9bnincludesloweracquiredamortizationandscale, notmark-to-marketinvestmentgains. Capexgrowswithcapacity; gradualdeleveragingandnormalWCpreventearningsgrowthfromautomaticallybecomingFCFE.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+13,400

Depreciation+2,100

Capital expenditure-1,800

Working capital-500

Net borrowing-2,000

Other adjustments-600

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 73.0% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	13,400	2,100	1,800	500	-2,000	-600	10,600
2028	14,400	2,050	1,900	550	-1,000	-600	12,400
2029	15,500	1,950	2,000	600	-500	-600	13,750
2030	16,700	1,800	2,100	650	0	-600	15,150
2031	17,900	1,650	2,200	700	0	-600	16,050

2027 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -150, taxAndSettlementCash -150, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -200. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2028 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -150, taxAndSettlementCash -150, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -200. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2029 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -150, taxAndSettlementCash -150, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -200. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2030 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -150, taxAndSettlementCash -150, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -200. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2031 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -150, taxAndSettlementCash -150, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -200. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

Bull · Optimistic case $182.55 / share

AIfavorablecase:smokefreegrowth~15%andstrongpremium/countrymixoutweighslowercombustiblevolumes; combustiblespricingremainseffective. ZYNportfolioinvestmentsconvertintomarginsafternormalization. NI14.2→22bnrequiresexecution,FXstabilityandpermissiveregulation;largercapex/WCfundgrowth. Noautomaticbuybackorborrowingupside.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · USD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · USD MILLIONS

Common net income+14,200

Depreciation+2,150

Capital expenditure-1,900

Working capital-600

Net borrowing-1,500

Other adjustments-500

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 78.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · USD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	14,200	2,150	1,900	600	-1,500	-500	11,850
2028	15,900	2,150	2,100	700	-500	-500	14,250
2029	17,800	2,100	2,300	800	0	-500	16,300
2030	19,900	2,000	2,500	900	0	-500	18,000
2031	22,000	1,900	2,700	1,000	0	-500	19,700

2027 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -125, taxAndSettlementCash -125, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -150. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2028 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -125, taxAndSettlementCash -125, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -150. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2029 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -125, taxAndSettlementCash -125, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -150. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2030 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -125, taxAndSettlementCash -125, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -150. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

2031 adjustment: ExplicitAIUSDmillionscashhypotheses: pensionCash -125, taxAndSettlementCash -125, strategicInvestment -100, minorityAndParticipatingClaimsReserve -150. NoSBCaddbackorrecurringpensionrefund. ReservesareincrementalcashbeyondNI, notreportedfuturecharges.

Reported financial facts

FY2025: USDmillions:commonNI11348,D&A1996,CFO12233,capex1569;FY2024commonNI7057,CFO12217,capex1444. SFP41.5%of2025sales. OtherincomeandimpairmentsmakeGAAPcomparisonsvolatile.
YTD2026: CommonNI8568,D&A1534,CFO10445,capex1115;NCIincome521. Debtflows1907+1659-1191+1478-4587=-734. Surpluspensionrefunds~0.7bnandlowerWC/excisetimingimprovecash. Q3dilutedshares1560m;share-awardparticipatingclaimsseparate.
Q32026: Netsales11438,+5.5%;organic+7.1%. SFPrevenue>40%;SFPshipments+2.7%, USZYNshipments+4.2%. Combustiblepricing8.9%withnearlyflatcigaretteshipments;specialdistributionbenefitnotexpectedtorecuratsamelevel.

Management guidance

Oct21:2026reportedEPS7.11–7.26 vsadjusted8.29–8.44;excludesdiscreteitemsunderlyingtax~21.5%;CFO~13.5bn,capex1.4–1.6bn,netdebt/adjustedEBITDAcloseto2x,no repurchases. CurrencyupdateonlytoadjustedEPSrange, notanoperatinggrowthraise.2027–31arenotmanagementguidance.

AI forecast assumptions

2026Bridge

AIrevenuebridge44bn, split18.48bnSFP/25.52bncombustiblesusesreportedYTDmix42%;notreportedfullyear. CompanyreportedEPSguidancemidpoint7.185×1560≈11.21bnNI;recurringNIexcludingexceptionalinvestment/tax/pensionlossesisroughly12.5bnwhilekeepingacquiredamortization. Base2027NI13.4bnthereforeassumesbusinessgrowthandnormalizationratherthansimpleGAAPEPSgrowth.

Segment Forecasts

Scenario
bear
Years
- 2027
- 2028
- 2029
- 2030
- 2031
Smoke Free Revenue USDmillions
- 19400
- 20600
- 21800
- 23100
- 24500
Combustible Revenue USDmillions
- 24800
- 24200
- 23600
- 23000
- 22500
Net Income USDmillions
- 11500
- 11600
- 11700
- 11900
- 12200
Rationale
AIadversecase:smokefreegrowsonly~6%ascompetition/promotionerodeZYNpricingandIQOSadoption; combustiblevolume-4to-5%andpricing+2to+3%cannotfullyoffsetdecline. FXandenergycostshurtcashmargins. Capacityspendandexciseinventoryneedsremainhigh. Netincomeonly11.5–12.2bn, withpermanentregulatory/cashreserveshigherthanbase. Noassumedpensionrefund,assetgainornewborrowingrescue.
Scenario
base
Years
- 2027
- 2028
- 2029
- 2030
- 2031
Smoke Free Revenue USDmillions
- 20500
- 23000
- 25800
- 29000
- 32500
Combustible Revenue USDmillions
- 26000
- 26300
- 26400
- 26500
- 26500
Net Income USDmillions
- 13400
- 14400
- 15500
- 16700
- 17900
Rationale
AIcentralcase:smokefreenetrevenuegrows~11–12%throughIQOSmixandinternationalexpansionplusZYNUSdistribution, whilecombustiblespricing4–5%offsetsvolume-3to-4%, leavingrevenuenearestable. U.S.brandinvestmentlimitsnear-termmargins. NI13.4→17.9bnincludesloweracquiredamortizationandscale, notmark-to-marketinvestmentgains. Capexgrowswithcapacity; gradualdeleveragingandnormalWCpreventearningsgrowthfromautomaticallybecomingFCFE.
Scenario
bull
Years
- 2027
- 2028
- 2029
- 2030
- 2031
Smoke Free Revenue USDmillions
- 22000
- 25200
- 28900
- 33200
- 38000
Combustible Revenue USDmillions
- 26500
- 27000
- 27300
- 27500
- 27500
Net Income USDmillions
- 14200
- 15900
- 17800
- 19900
- 22000
Rationale
AIfavorablecase:smokefreegrowth~15%andstrongpremium/countrymixoutweighslowercombustiblevolumes; combustiblespricingremainseffective. ZYNportfolioinvestmentsconvertintomarginsafternormalization. NI14.2→22bnrequiresexecution,FXstabilityandpermissiveregulation;largercapex/WCfundgrowth. Noautomaticbuybackorborrowingupside.

Cash Conversion

D&Adeclinesfrom~2.1bnto1.65bnbaseasacquiredcommercializationrights/amortizableassetsrunoff, whileNIincludestheassociatedexpenseeachyear;notaddingamortizationtotheadjustedEPSagain. Capexbase1.8→2.2bnfundssmoke-freecapacityandmaintenance.WCbase500→700musesreceivables/inventory/excisetradepayableswithoutassumingrepeat2026release. Nolong-runpensionrefundwindfall.

Other Cash Adjustments USDmillions

Bear

Pension Cash: -200
Tax And Settlement Cash: -300
Strategic Investment: -150
Minority And Participating Claims Reserve: -250

Base

Pension Cash: -150
Tax And Settlement Cash: -150
Strategic Investment: -100
Minority And Participating Claims Reserve: -200

Bull

Pension Cash: -125
Tax And Settlement Cash: -125
Strategic Investment: -100
Minority And Participating Claims Reserve: -150

Minority Policy

NIiscommonequityincome;consolidatedD&A/capex/WCareapproximatedwithincrementalminority/participatingcashreserve. ItdoesnotdeductallNCIdistributionsagainafterexcludingNCIearnings. Thereisuncertaintyinallocatingreinvestmentbetweencommon/minorityowners;reservemustrefreshwithsubsidiarycashdetails.

Financing & dilution

NetBorrowinginitiallynegative, thenneutralrefinancing;interest/taxalreadyinNI. NoautomaticcashadditionordebtsubtractionafterFCFE. CommondividendsandbuybacksarenotdeductedfromFCFE. Q32026NIforEPS3305mvsPMINI3313mreflects8mparticipatingawards;fixed1565mclaimsandcashreserveprovideaconservativeapproximationratherthanignoringtheseclaims. SBCretainedexpense,notaddedtocash.

Discount rate & long-run growth

NominalUSDKe9.5%baseanchoredtoNYUOct1Treasury5.29%+AIbeta1.0×ERP4.20%=9.49%. Betaisnotmeasuredregression;monthlyratesnotOct30spot. Bear11%/bull8.5%riskrangesreflectregulatory,FX,leverageandexecutionuncertainty. Terminalg0.5/2/2.5%usesFed2%inflationcontextandmaturedecliningcombustiblevolumesvsSFPgrowth,notsolecompanyinflation;allg<Ke.

Historical Cash Reconciliation

FY2025: CommonNI11348 +NCIincome500 +D&A1996 +goodwill41 +saleloss94 -deferredtax847 +restructuringcashnet206 -receivables448 -inventory1201 +AP258 -accrued/currentassets151 -tax266 -pension139 +other842 =CFO12233. Financingnet1706=19+170-170+7055-5368. Capex1569;NCIcashandderivativecollateralrequireseparatecommon-equityconsideration;thisCFOisnotlabeledcleanFCFE.
YTD2026: CommonNI8568+NCI521+D&A1534+RBHimpairment511-deferredtax35-restructuringnet20-receivables836+inventory933-AP140-accrued/currentassets1892+tax162+pension582+other557=CFO10445. NoncashWCbroadtradecashuse1935=836-933+140+1892,withtax/pension/otherseparate. Forecastnotbasedonannualizingthiscashrelease.

What could go wrong

Excisetaxclassification,flavor/productrestrictions,youth-accessenforcementandlitigationcanreducerevenueorraiseincrementalcashcosts. Corporateproductclaimsarenotindependenthealthverification.
ZYNpromotionsand20-pouchcantransitioncantradepriceforvolume;IQOSandnicotinecompetitioncanrequiremoremarketingandcapex.
Cigarettepricingcouldceasetocompensateforvolumecontraction;someQ3distributiongainsaretemporary.
FX,MiddleEastenergycostsandUkrainesupplychaindisruptionscancompresscashmargins.
Leverage,subsidiarycashaccess,excisetaxWCandNCIallocationlimitcashavailabletocommonowners.

Evidence against the thesis

Continuingtotalvolumegrowthandinternationalsmokefreeofftakesupportfavorablemix;strongcombustiblepricingchallengesthefastdeclinebearcase. HoweverQ3SFPshipmentsgrewonly2.7%,USOCIdeclinedreported3.3%despitesalesgrowth,and2026CFOincludesnonrecurringpensionrefund;thesewarnagainstunconstrainedSFPmargins.

Confidence & limitations

Moderateforbusinessdirectionandreportedfinancialextraction;moderate-lowforlong-runregulation,FX,margins,minoritycashallocationandrates. TheseareAIestimatesnotverifiedfairvalues.Numericalvalidationissupplementaltoevidence/modelreview.

Forecast Timing

Full2027–2031calendarforecasts,annualendperiod1–5. Remaining2026cashomitted;about2monthstubto2027startignored,disclosedlate2026approximation. TerminalFCFEpositivenormalized,withoutperpetuatingpensionrefundorborrowings.

Evidence & model checks

Reviewedhistorical/latestfilingsandearnings,commonvsconsolidatedNI,NCIandparticipatingawards,acquiredamortizationvsadjustedEPS,WC/exciseseasonality,pensionrefund,capex,debtpolicy,scenarioorderingandnominalrates.Sourceswereevidenceonlyandnoembeddedinstructionsfollowed.NoexistingPMresearchedmodelatfirstinspection.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed1565millionfullydilutedclaimsapproximation:Q32026reporteddilutedaverageshares1560m plus5mbufferforparticipatingrestrictedawardsandfutureissuance. BufferisAIhypothesis, notreportedsharecount. NIkeepsSBCexpense;SBCnotaddedback. Nofuturebuybackaccretion;noequityissuanceproceeds. USDmillionscash/sharesmillions.

1565 million shares · USD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Official FY2025 annual report ↗

· Report 2025-12-31

Audited2023–25 cashflows, commonNI, financing, amortization, NCI; publicationdate unconfirmed, accessed2026-10-30.

Official 10-Q ↗

Published 2026-10-23 · Report 2026-09-30

Quarterly/YTD financials, cashflow components, shares, participating awards, NCI, pensionrefund, excise/workingcapital, leasesanddebt.

Official earnings and guidance ↗

Published 2026-10-21 · Report 2026-09-30

Smoke-free/combustibleoperationaldrivers, USZYNpromotion, FXenergycosts, 2026cashflowcapexleverageandrepurchaseguidance.

Academic market inputs ↗

· Report 2026-10-01

USDnominalTreasury5.29%, impliedERP4.20%; notOct30spot.

Long-run inflation context ↗

Published 2025-08-22

2%PCEinflationobjective, notcompanyforecast.

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

2330.TW 台積電

NT$2,370.00

TWD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-30T05:30:00.000Z

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · completed daily close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · TWD / SHARENT$765.07

BASE · TWD / SHARENT$1,841.98

BULL · TWD / SHARENT$3,203.02

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-28.7%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

台積電的核心論點是先進製程需求轉化為股東現金，而不只是營收成長。基準情境讓2027–31年營收成長逐步降至6%、淨利率降至45%，並保留龐大建廠支出；悲觀與樂觀情境分別檢驗AI投資降溫及產能變現。此為TWD普通股FCFE草稿，非ADR美元估值。

bear · Equity cost 11.5% · Terminal 2.0%base · Equity cost 9.5% · Terminal 2.5%bull · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 3.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case NT$765.07 / share

AI downside: AI buildout cools, consumer weakness persists, overseas/N2 costs reduce common net margins to39%; capex commitments initially remain elevated. Revenue growth decelerates8% to3%, and core working capital absorbs12% of incremental sales.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+2,658,110

Depreciation+1,000,000

Capital expenditure-2,250,000

Working capital-53,699

Net borrowing-5,000

Other adjustments-5,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 68.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	2,658,110	1,000,000	2,250,000	53,699	-5,000	-5,000	1,344,411
2028	2,689,525	1,150,000	2,300,000	43,496	-5,000	-5,000	1,486,029
2029	2,756,763	1,300,000	2,200,000	38,422	-5,000	-5,000	1,808,341
2030	2,797,106	1,400,000	2,100,000	32,274	-5,000	-5,000	2,054,832
2031	2,808,993	1,450,000	2,050,000	25,174	-5,000	-5,000	2,173,819

2027 adjustment: AI conservative parent-claim reserve of TWD5000m for subsidiary NCI share of non-NI cash flows; no NCI capital injection credited. netBorrowing separately includes assumed annual lease principal repayment5000 with other debt issuance offset by maturity refinancing. No grants, asset sales or SBC addback credited.

2028 adjustment: AI conservative parent-claim reserve of TWD5000m for subsidiary NCI share of non-NI cash flows; no NCI capital injection credited. netBorrowing separately includes assumed annual lease principal repayment5000 with other debt issuance offset by maturity refinancing. No grants, asset sales or SBC addback credited.

2029 adjustment: AI conservative parent-claim reserve of TWD5000m for subsidiary NCI share of non-NI cash flows; no NCI capital injection credited. netBorrowing separately includes assumed annual lease principal repayment5000 with other debt issuance offset by maturity refinancing. No grants, asset sales or SBC addback credited.

2030 adjustment: AI conservative parent-claim reserve of TWD5000m for subsidiary NCI share of non-NI cash flows; no NCI capital injection credited. netBorrowing separately includes assumed annual lease principal repayment5000 with other debt issuance offset by maturity refinancing. No grants, asset sales or SBC addback credited.

2031 adjustment: AI conservative parent-claim reserve of TWD5000m for subsidiary NCI share of non-NI cash flows; no NCI capital injection credited. netBorrowing separately includes assumed annual lease principal repayment5000 with other debt issuance offset by maturity refinancing. No grants, asset sales or SBC addback credited.

Base · Central case NT$1,841.98 / share

AI base: advanced-node capacity and pricing sustain growth, fading20% to6% as scale rises; common net margin normalizes49% to45% without repeating portfolio gains. D&A follows recent investment with a lag. Capex remains high through2028 then moderates; working capital requires8% of incremental revenue.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+3,289,076

Depreciation+1,000,000

Capital expenditure-2,200,000

Working capital-89,499

Net borrowing-5,000

Other adjustments-5,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.50% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 76.5% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	3,289,076	1,000,000	2,200,000	89,499	-5,000	-5,000	1,989,577
2028	3,737,464	1,200,000	2,400,000	85,919	-5,000	-5,000	2,441,545
2029	4,098,753	1,400,000	2,300,000	74,749	-5,000	-5,000	3,114,004
2030	4,372,584	1,550,000	2,250,000	62,789	-5,000	-5,000	3,599,795
2031	4,534,180	1,650,000	2,200,000	45,627	-5,000	-5,000	3,928,553

Bull · Optimistic case NT$3,203.02 / share

AI upside: AI accelerators, networking and leading-edge node adoption sustain28% to10% growth; operating scale offsets foreign-fab costs. Higher capex funds capacity; efficiency limits core WC investment to6% of incremental sales. Margins still fade to48% rather than extrapolating one-time gains.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+3,651,546

Depreciation+1,050,000

Capital expenditure-2,350,000

Working capital-93,974

Net borrowing-5,000

Other adjustments-5,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 3.00% · Terminal value 82.1% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	3,651,546	1,050,000	2,350,000	93,974	-5,000	-5,000	2,247,572
2028	4,491,402	1,300,000	2,600,000	98,807	-5,000	-5,000	3,082,595
2029	5,195,936	1,550,000	2,700,000	95,112	-5,000	-5,000	3,940,824
2030	5,804,899	1,750,000	2,650,000	87,292	-5,000	-5,000	4,807,607
2031	6,255,075	1,900,000	2,600,000	71,080	-5,000	-5,000	5,473,995

Reported financial facts

歷史與最新財務事實及精確數值見sources_json，各來源標示發布日與報告期。2026Q3為未經查核簡表；最新完整附註為2026H1。

Management guidance

Q4營收與利潤率區間屬管理層指引。2026資本預算與海外廠稀釋描述屬管理層展望，不是模型自行驗證的結果。

AI forecast assumptions

所有2027–31年度元件均為AI假設，非公司報告值。2026收入銜接點=九月累計3898727+Q4指引中點53300×31.8=5593667百萬元TWD；它是混合已報告與指引的估計，非全年實績。2027起才折現，避免把已過去的2026全年現金再次當未來。

Scenario Drivers

Name
bear
Years
- Year
  2027
  Revenue
  6041160
  Growth
  0.08
  Common Net Margin
  0.44
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.12
- Year
  2028
  Revenue
  6403630
  Growth
  0.06
  Common Net Margin
  0.42
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.12
- Year
  2029
  Revenue
  6723812
  Growth
  0.05
  Common Net Margin
  0.41
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.12
- Year
  2030
  Revenue
  6992764
  Growth
  0.04
  Common Net Margin
  0.4
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.12
- Year
  2031
  Revenue
  7202547
  Growth
  0.03
  Common Net Margin
  0.39
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.12
Name
base
Years
- Year
  2027
  Revenue
  6712400
  Growth
  0.2
  Common Net Margin
  0.49
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.08
- Year
  2028
  Revenue
  7786384
  Growth
  0.16
  Common Net Margin
  0.48
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.08
- Year
  2029
  Revenue
  8720750
  Growth
  0.12
  Common Net Margin
  0.47
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.08
- Year
  2030
  Revenue
  9505618
  Growth
  0.09
  Common Net Margin
  0.46
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.08
- Year
  2031
  Revenue
  10075955
  Growth
  0.06
  Common Net Margin
  0.45
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.08
Name
bull
Years
- Year
  2027
  Revenue
  7159894
  Growth
  0.28
  Common Net Margin
  0.51
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.06
- Year
  2028
  Revenue
  8806670
  Growth
  0.23
  Common Net Margin
  0.51
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.06
- Year
  2029
  Revenue
  10391871
  Growth
  0.18
  Common Net Margin
  0.5
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.06
- Year
  2030
  Revenue
  11846733
  Growth
  0.14
  Common Net Margin
  0.49
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.06
- Year
  2031
  Revenue
  13031406
  Growth
  0.1
  Common Net Margin
  0.48
  Wc Investment Rate
  0.06

Investment thesis

領先節點需求提供量價成長潛力，但高毛利不是可直接分配現金。模型逐年列入D&A、現金capex與新增核心非現金營運資金，讓建廠高峰與折舊落差直接影響股東現金。

Financing policy

NIcommon已含利息與稅。不使用CFO直接當FCFE，也不把融資現金總額誤當netBorrowing。每年假設其他借款等額再融資，租賃本金淨償還5000；股利與庫藏股是分配，不重複扣除。不在FCFE折現後扣負債，也不另加淨現金，因淨利含利息所得。

Capex And WC

capex為正的現金流出，包含假設的PPE與少量無形/租賃現金取得支出。D&A不等於capex。changeWC僅估計營運用應收、存貨及應付款等非現金項目，不包含現金、債務及股利應付；以新增收入的6/8/12%估計，非把簡表working-capital-and-others整項套入。

Noncontrolling Interests

使用歸屬母公司NI搭配合併再投資，明示近似：不把NCI投入算母公司現金，保留全部capex並另每年扣5000之NCI非NI現金保守準備。此準備為AI假設，非附註報告值；若海外合資經濟權益現金變得重大，應以子公司分拆重估。

Discount rate & long-run growth

名目TWD。股權成本8.5/9.5/11.5%為明示AI風險情境，並非已量測beta之CAPM輸出。未取得經驗證的當日長債殖利率、beta及ERP，所以不冒稱來源實證；CBC政策利率不得冒充無風險長債。永續2/2.5/3%以CBC通膨背景加低實質增長，遠低於短期AI擴張，且均低於各股權成本。

What could go wrong

AI客戶支出回收不及預期、出口限制、競爭與先進節點良率、台海與自然災害、TWD升值、海外建廠成本、工具供應及現金capex高於預算；永續價值及股權成本敏感度高。

Evidence against the thesis

管理層同時指出消費及價格敏感市場受壓，海外廠稀釋可能增加；2026H1包含一次性投資處分利益，不能把高淨利率永久化。

Catalysts

下一次完整季度財報附註、第四季指引兌現、2027資本預算、先進節點收入占比與應收/庫存現金轉換。

Confidence & limitations

報告值來源高可信；2027–31現金預測與股權成本低至中可信。屬初次公司專屬calculated_draft，不等同研究核准或買入建議。

Limitations

固定稀釋股數、全合併再投資/母公司NI與NCI保守準備近似；未作逐廠模型。無已驗證最新報價，不產生折價訊號。不與舊proxy估值比較。年份以2026年底近似估值日、2027年底首筆FCFE，未採midyear/stub折現。

Share count & valuation basis

25932 million diluted weighted-average ordinary shares in Q3 2026 official condensed statements, held fixed for per-share approximation. One ADR=5 ordinary shares; this is2330.TW TWD per ordinary share. SBC remains an expense in NI, is not added back; no speculative buyback-driven denominator decline. Future material dilution requires a new version.

25932 million shares · TWD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Source 1 ↗

Published 2026-02-10 · Report 2025-12-31

Source 2 ↗

Published 2026-08-14 · Report 2026-06-30

Source 3 ↗

Published 2026-10-15 · Report 2026-09-30

Source 4 ↗

Published 2026-10-15 · Report 2026-09-30

Source 5 ↗

Published 2026-10-15 · Report 2026-09-30

Source 6 ↗

Published 2026-09-17 · Report 2026-09-17

Source 7 ↗

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

2317.TW 鴻海

NT$245.50

TWD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-30T05:30:00.000Z

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · completed daily close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · TWD / SHARENT$62.51

BASE · TWD / SHARENT$219.28

BULL · TWD / SHARENT$395.31

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-12.0%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

鴻海的AI機櫃與高速網路成長很強，但股東價值取決於成長扣掉存貨、應收帳款、全球擴廠、租賃及少數股權後還剩多少現金。H1獲利增加卻出現營業現金流出，因此本模型沒有把營收成長直接等同FCFE；另納入2027三菱投資與可轉債賣回。

bear · Equity cost 11.0% · Terminal 1.0%base · Equity cost 8.5% · Terminal 2.0%bull · Equity cost 8.0% · Terminal 2.5%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case NT$62.51 / share

AI downside: cloud customer spending slows after current rack ramps; consumer demand stays flat and pricing passes costly components through without sufficient margin. Common NI margin compresses near2%; reinvestment/localization continues. No Mitsubishi turnaround gain. WC investment eases gradually, not an immediate liquidation windfall.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+230,000

Depreciation+130,000

Capital expenditure-230,000

Working capital-100,000

Net borrowing-22,530.2

Other adjustments-50,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 11.00% · Terminal growth 1.00% · Terminal value 82.4% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	230,000	130,000	230,000	100,000	-22,530.2	-50,000	-42,530.2
2028	235,000	140,000	235,000	85,000	0	-27,000	28,000
2029	245,000	150,000	240,000	70,000	0	-29,000	56,000
2030	260,000	160,000	240,000	60,000	0	-31,000	89,000
2031	280,000	170,000	245,000	50,000	0	-33,000	122,000

2027 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 12000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 8000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 6000, plus24000 for Mitsubishi investment at AI0.208696TWD/JPY FX approximation. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2028 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 13000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 9000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 5000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2029 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 14000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 10000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 5000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2030 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 15000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 11000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 5000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2031 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 16000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 12000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 5000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

Base · Central case NT$219.28 / share

AI central hypothesis: AI racks, high-speed networking and vertical integration extend growth, while mature consumer assembly limits group margins. Illustrative revenue2027–31 TWD12.4/13.6/14.9/16.2/17.2trn supports common NI margins2.42/2.50/2.55/2.56/2.56%. Capex funds localized capacity. Net incremental operating WC120→65bn reflects growth slowing and cash conversion improving; it is not a percentage applied to a generic FCF proxy.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+300,000

Depreciation+135,000

Capital expenditure-240,000

Working capital-120,000

Net borrowing-22,530.2

Other adjustments-49,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 82.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	300,000	135,000	240,000	120,000	-22,530.2	-49,000	3,469.8
2028	340,000	150,000	255,000	100,000	0	-27,000	108,000
2029	380,000	165,000	270,000	85,000	0	-29,000	161,000
2030	415,000	180,000	280,000	75,000	0	-31,000	209,000
2031	440,000	195,000	290,000	65,000	0	-33,000	247,000

2027 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 12000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 8000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 5000, plus24000 for Mitsubishi investment at AI0.208696TWD/JPY FX approximation. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

Bull · Optimistic case NT$395.31 / share

AI upside: AI system integration, liquid cooling and networking win more value per rack; consumer products remain stable. Illustrative group revenue13.2→20trn with common NI margin2.88→3.4%, above historical norm and therefore low-confidence. Investment and incremental WC rise with the larger footprint; no cash-free growth or speculative EV premium.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+380,000

Depreciation+140,000

Capital expenditure-270,000

Working capital-150,000

Net borrowing-22,530.2

Other adjustments-54,000

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 8.00% · Terminal growth 2.50% · Terminal value 85.9% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	380,000	140,000	270,000	150,000	-22,530.2	-54,000	23,469.8
2028	450,000	160,000	295,000	140,000	0	-32,000	143,000
2029	525,000	180,000	320,000	130,000	0	-36,000	219,000
2030	600,000	200,000	345,000	120,000	0	-40,000	295,000
2031	680,000	220,000	365,000	110,000	0	-45,000	380,000

2027 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 13000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 11000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 6000, plus24000 for Mitsubishi investment at AI0.208696TWD/JPY FX approximation. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2028 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 14000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 12000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 6000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2029 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 15000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 14000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 7000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2030 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 16000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 16000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 8000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

2031 adjustment: AI cash deductions, TWDmillions: lease principal 18000, minority share of non-NI cash/reinvestment reserve 18000, recurring strategic/affiliate and cash-versus-accrual adjustment 9000. These exact scenario amounts are hypotheses, not reported future facts. NCI reserve prevents assigning all consolidated D&A less investment to common holders. No SBC addback, no common dividends/buybacks deducted.

Reported financial facts

TWDmillions normalized from TWDthousands: FY2025 commonNI189353.852, consolidatedNI215034.486, D&A97753.037, CFO226852.474, cashPP&E173763.139, intangible1700.338. H12026 commonNI109893.220, consolidatedNI127012.192, D&A57247.086, CFO−69122.283, PP&E80886.319, intangible574.430, leaseprincipal5111.420. ReportedH1netcashborrowing42462.609=25896.993−11880+28600−5700.002+24326.060−18780.442; H1NCIdividends4712.820. None is forecast.

Management guidance

August management expects sustained AI-capacity demand, strong Q3 cloud/networking and consumer growth and higher future capex. The call reports H1CFOoutflow69.1bn despite adjusted EBITDA227.7bn. No direct-equity-fundraising plan is not a guarantee against dilution. September monthly revenue is unaudited; Q3financial results are scheduledNov12, so no Q3earnings/cashflowinvented.

AI forecast assumptions

All2027–31 arrays are AI estimates. Base revenue and commonNI anchors are explicit in scenario rationale. Annual capex includes PP&E+intangibles and cash equipment advances; it stays aboveFY2025 as new regions/AIcapacity expand. D&A tracks largerinstalledbase. WC is incremental noncash operating investment, positive meanscashuse; balances excludecash/debt/dividendpayables and marketablesecurities. RemainingNIcontains interest/tax and noSBCaddback. Future minoritycash ownershipallocation is approximated with an explicit deduction rather than treating retainedNCIfunds as commoncash.

Financing & dilution

The2024zero-couponUS$700mCB has2027-10-24holderput and2029maturity. Model assumes cashredemption2027 atfixed32.186TWD/USD:22530.2m, no offsetting newborrow and no conversionbenefit. Otherordinarydebt maturities refinance netzero, not counted as perpetualnewvalue; interest inNIreflects continuedfunding. 2021CB settlement belongs2026bridge; confirm completedconversion/redemption inQ3. Fixed14200mshares is a disclosed conservative approximation, not exact currentclaims. No debt/cash subtraction after FCFEdiscounting; nonoperating recurringincome remains withinNI.

Material Transaction

Oct16 officialMitsubishiagreement targets50%stakeforJPY115bn with2027-10-01conditionalclose. Firstforecastyear deductsTWD24000m usingexplicitAI FX0.208696TWD/JPY, not a claimedmarketquote. No acquisitionearningssynergyis manufactured. Closing-price adjustments, futureJVfunding andFX remainrisks.

Discount rate & long-run growth

NominalTWD. CBCOct20ten-yearauction weightedaccepted1.958% is the longyieldanchor, not the2%policy rate or coupon. NYUJan5matureERP4.23%+TaiwanCRP0.78% are dated historicalanchors. ExplicitAIbeta1.2 gives1.958+1.2×4.23+0.78=7.814%; base8.5% adds0.686% execution/globalexposurebuffer. Bear11% andbull8% are sensitivities, not observedCAPM. Terminalg1/2/2.5% assumesmaturevolume/inflationlowgrowth, not currentAIramp; allbelowKe. Foreign-exposurecountryriskcannot be captured exactly byTaiwandomicile.

What could go wrong

Working-capital use can outweigh accountingprofit when AIcomponents are expensive orreceivablesdelay.
Customerconcentration, componentpass-through pricing, competitiveassemblymargins, localmanufacturingcost andtariffs.
NCIallocation acrossmanysubsidiaries, equitymethodcashdividends andfinancialassetfairvalueincome make consolidated-to-commoncashapproximate.
CBcashputversusconversion, MitsubishiFX/closingterms andnewdebtcanchangefinancialclaims.
H1reviewqualified forunreviewed specifiedentities; forecastterminalvalue andfixedsharecount are sensitivities.

Evidence against the thesis

Officialmonthlyrevenue shows sustaineddemand, andcashconversioncycleimproved to42days (52withoutARmanagementtools), so basecashassumptions may be toocautious. Conversely H1CFO−69.1bn despiteprofitgrowth meansEBITDAhealthstatements do not proveshareholdercashgeneration. Reportedrecourse/nonrecourseARtools must not be extrapolated as freecash.

Confidence & limitations

Medium on officialhistoricalfacts; low-to-moderate on forecasts. ForecastsareAIhypothesesand approximatecommonattribution. Ke beta is not measured; datedERP is not freshOctober marketcalibration. Numericalcalculatorvalidation is separatefromevidencereview. Do nottreatsmallgap as reliablemispricing.

Forecast timing

Fullcalendar2027–31;2026servesreported/qualitativebridgeonly. Endyearperiod1for2027 approximates late2026valuationanchor and omitsremaining2026cash andexact2monthstub. Do notclaimprecision atOct30.

Evidence & model checks

Read annual2025comparative2024 and reviewedH12026reportincludingcashflow, shares, bondterms, NCI andworkingcapital; reconciledCFOclassification becauseinterestpaid is financing and interest/dividendincomeinvesting. Doesnot mistakecompanyCFO-minusPP&EforcommonFCFE. Scenarioinputscheckedforcashsigns, financing, minorityreserve, conditionalacquisition, ratecurrencyanddilution. Preservepriorvaliddrafts.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed14200 million ordinary-share claims approximation, above H1 reported diluted weighted shares14156.126m (reported in thousands then divided1000). Retains employee dilution buffer; no future buyback accretion. 2024 CB modeled cash redemption at2027put, not assumed conversion; buffer conservatively retains some dilution reflected in historical denominator. Existing2021CB maturity falls in2026bridge, not future cash flow. Not a fully dynamic cap table; ordinary TW shares, not GDRs.

14200 million shares · TWD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Audited consolidated annual statements ↗

Published 2026-03-16 · Report 2025-12-31

2025/2024 income and cash flow; financial cash classification; NCI and debt.

Reviewed consolidated interim statements ↗

Published 2026-08-12 · Report 2026-06-30

H1 detailed common income, D&A, working capital, cash financing, NCI, diluted shares; qualified review for specified unreviewed subsidiaries.

Official management call transcript ↗

Published 2026-08-18 · Report 2026-08-12

AI racks/networking growth, consumer seasonality, expansion capex, operating cash outflow, no planned direct equity fundraising.

Official unaudited monthly revenue ↗

Published 2026-10-05 · Report 2026-09-30

January–September revenue TWD7669772m; strong AI demand is not audited Q3 cashflow.

Official material transaction ↗

Published 2026-10-16 · Report 2026-10-16

50% Mitsubishi Electric Mobility investment JPY115bn, targeted close2027-10-01 conditional approvals; no automatic synergy benefit.

Official TWD ten-year auction ↗

Published 2026-10-20 · Report 2026-10-20

A15109 weighted accepted yield1.958%, highest2.001%; auction anchor not current secondary yield.

Academic ERP anchor ↗

Published 2026-01-05 · Report 2026-01-05

Mature market4.23%, Taiwan country risk0.78%; stale January anchor not October measurement.

Official results calendar ↗

Q3 results scheduled2026-11-12; not released at research cutoff2026-10-30.

Company news

No recent company news stored.

FCFE · AI estimate

2412.TW 中華電

NT$160.00

TWD · Regular market quote · 2026-10-30T05:30:00.000Z

1 MONTH · DAILY UNADJUSTED PRICES · Yahoo Finance chart · completed daily close

Price meets valuation

BEAR · TWD / SHARENT$48.53

BASE · TWD / SHARENT$98.38

BULL · TWD / SHARENT$145.30

GAP TO BASE DRAFT-62.6%

Positive gap means price is below the AI base estimate. Based on AI forecasts. Open the research below for assumptions and sources.

The research behind the number

中華電信的估值核心是成熟電信現金流能否抵銷AIDC、海纜及ICT專案投資。5G升級與寬頻提速支持溫和成長，但專案營收、合併少數股權、租賃及資本支出使EBITDA不能直接當股東現金。本草稿分三情境逐年預測；不是把最新營收成長率永久外推。

bear · Equity cost 9.0% · Terminal 0.5%base · Equity cost 7.5% · Terminal 1.5%bull · Equity cost 6.5% · Terminal 2.0%

Scenario drivers

Switch cases to compare the operating story, annual equity cash flow and cash-flow drivers. Forecasts are AI assumptions.

Bear · Conservative case NT$48.53 / share

AI downside: mobile/broadband price competition limits ARPU uplift, legacy fixed voice declines and lumpy overseas ICT contracts do not become recurring profits. CommonNI stays near the original2026 guidance despite network revenue. AIDC/submarine infrastructure still requires higher investment; declining margins do not magically eliminate maintenance capex. Borrowing is not used to inflate distributions.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+39,000

Depreciation+42,000

Capital expenditure-36,000

Working capital-2,500

Net borrowing-4,500

Other adjustments-3,800

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 9.00% · Terminal growth 0.50% · Terminal value 65.8% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	39,000	42,000	36,000	2,500	-4,500	-3,800	34,200
2028	38,500	42,200	36,500	2,500	-4,600	-3,800	33,300
2029	38,000	42,500	37,000	2,200	-4,700	-3,800	32,800
2030	38,000	42,800	37,500	2,000	-4,800	-3,800	32,700
2031	38,000	43,000	38,000	2,000	-4,900	-3,800	32,300

2027 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -2000 recurring strategic investments, -1000 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2028 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -2000 recurring strategic investments, -1000 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2029 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -2000 recurring strategic investments, -1000 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2030 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -2000 recurring strategic investments, -1000 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2031 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -2000 recurring strategic investments, -1000 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

Base · Central case NT$98.38 / share

AI central: 5G migration and broadband speed upgrades sustain modest core growth; ICT/cybersecurity/IDC add scale without extrapolating one-off project revenue surges. Illustrative revenue anchors2027 258000 to2031 289000, with commonNI margin about17.1%. Capex32–35bn exceedsFY2025 cashPP&E27.7bn to fundAIDC/cable capacity. Working capital absorbs project growth; no inventory release assumed. Terminal1.5% is mature nominal growth, below explicit-period earnings growth.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+44,000

Depreciation+42,000

Capital expenditure-32,000

Working capital-1,500

Net borrowing-4,400

Other adjustments-3,050

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 7.50% · Terminal growth 1.50% · Terminal value 75.3% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	44,000	42,000	32,000	1,500	-4,400	-3,050	45,050
2028	45,500	42,500	33,000	1,600	-4,500	-3,050	45,850
2029	47,000	43,000	34,000	1,700	-4,600	-3,050	46,650
2030	48,300	43,500	34,500	1,800	-4,700	-3,050	47,750
2031	49,500	44,000	35,000	1,800	-4,800	-3,050	48,850

2027 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1500 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2028 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1500 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2029 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1500 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2030 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1500 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2031 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1500 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

Bull · Optimistic case NT$145.30 / share

AI upside: sustained premium mobile mix, fiber upgrades, recurring enterprise services and phasedAIDC utilization support revenue270000→323000 and commonNI margin17.4→18.0%. This is not management long-range guidance. Capex, WC and strategic investment rise with expansion; no assumption that project revenues carry pure software margins. Nominal terminal2% represents a mature service infrastructure business, not perpetual double-digitAI growth.

AI FORECAST · ANNUAL FCFE · TWD MILLIONS

2027 CASH-FLOW DRIVERS · TWD MILLIONS

Common net income+47,000

Depreciation+43,000

Capital expenditure-34,000

Working capital-2,000

Net borrowing-4,500

Other adjustments-3,250

Green adds cash; red uses cash. These are AI projections, not reported future results.

Cost of equity 6.50% · Terminal growth 2.00% · Terminal value 81.2% of estimate

Annual cash-flow forecast · TWD millions

FCFE = common net income + depreciation − capital expenditure − working-capital investment + net borrowing + other adjustments.

Year	Net income	D&A	Capex	Δ working capital	Net borrowing	Other	FCFE
2027	47,000	43,000	34,000	2,000	-4,500	-3,250	46,250
2028	50,000	44,000	35,000	2,100	-4,600	-3,250	49,050
2029	53,000	45,000	36,000	2,200	-4,700	-3,250	51,850
2030	55,500	45,500	37,000	2,300	-4,800	-3,250	53,650
2031	58,000	46,000	38,000	2,400	-4,900	-3,250	55,450

2027 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1700 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2028 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1700 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2029 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1700 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2030 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1700 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

2031 adjustment: AI components in TWDmillions: +1000 contract-acquisition-cost amortization (cash contract costs are in WC), -1800 lease prepayments outside lease principal, -1700 recurring strategic investments, -750 conservative NCI cash-claim reserve on consolidated non-NI cash flows. No SBC add-back, acquisition windfall or balancing plug. These are explicit forecasts, not reported future facts.

Reported financial facts

Units

All cash figures below TWDmillions after dividing reported thousands by1000; share denominator millions ordinary shares.

FY2025

Common NI: 38712.404
Consolidated CFO: 77445.547
Depreciation: 33549.658
Amortization: 6666.281
Cash PPE: 27698.023
Lease Principal: 4134.509

FY2024

Common NI: 37220.464
Consolidated CFO: 79244.321
Cash PPE: 28755.55
Lease Principal: 3944.494

H12026

Common NI: 20751.322
Consolidated NI: 21873.887
Consolidated CFO: 31741.601
Depreciation: 17123.19
Amortization: 3332.124
Cash PPE: 9847.432
Cash Intangibles: 94.415
Lease Prepayments: 349.299
Lease Principal: 2079.314
Short Debt Issued: 1910
Short Debt Repaid: 1455
Bonds Issued: 2568.531
Bonds Repaid: 1900
NCIIncome: 1122.565

September YTD2026

Unaudited Revenue: 188945.075
Unaudited Common NI: 32972.846
Unaudited EBITDA: 72481.82

Management guidance

The January23 original2026 guidance commonNI37.39–38.94bn is a dated plan. August5 management said first-half outperformance supported full-year targets and capex would be backloaded. September monthlyresults are unaudited, not Q3 reviewed financials. Q3 detailed results scheduledNov4 were not available at research cutoff. Management does not disclose LunpingAIDC total investment or individual projectIRR, so neither is invented.

AI forecast assumptions

All2027–31 arrays areAI forecasts. Base NI44→49.5bn reflects coreARPU and recurringICT growth with stable~17%common margin, not the very high growth of individual recent projects. A2026 bridge of~43bn commonNI is anAI extrapolation from unaudited9month32.97bn, not management revised guidance. D&A42–44bn includes right-of-use depreciation; cashPP&E/intangibles32–35bn reflects infrastructure reinvestment. No spectrumauction windfall assumed; unforeseen license purchases are downside risk.

Working Capital

changeWC is positive cash investment in noncash operating contracts/receivables/inventory/prepayments less operatingpayables/deferredrevenue. Contract acquisition cash is included here, so related amortization is added separately. Cash/time deposits, debt, dividends payable and income taxbalances are excluded. H1 inventory/project investment and payment seasonality prevent simple annualization of H1CFO. ForecastWC is explicit, not reported.

Financing & dilution

NetBorrowing = zero net ordinary cash debt refinancing minus annuallease principal4.4–4.9bn. Cashmethod adds backROUD&A and subtractsleaseprincipal; newnoncashROU additions are not also treated as cashcapex/debt. Interest and tax remain in commonNI. Leaseprepayments are separate cashoutflow. Commondividends/buybacks are distributions, never deducted again. No cash/debt bridge followsFCFE. Fixed dilutedordinaryshares omit dynamicrepurchases.

Minority Claims

CommonNI is parent-attributable, but D&A/capex/WC projections are consolidated. A0.75–1.0bn annual explicit NCI reserve approximates nonparentclaims on the nonNI cash bridge, in addition to using commonNI. It is a conservativeAI allowance, not an exact subsidiaryownership-weighted calculation; subsidiary conversions and cash distribution constraints remain model risk. No consolidatedCFO is labeled exactcommonFCFE.

Discount rate & long-run growth

NominalTWD costofequity base7.5% is anAI scenario anchored to CBC2026-10-20 10Y auctionweighted1.958% + assumedbeta0.9 × assumedERP6%=7.358%, roundedup. Beta/ERP are explicit judgment, not measuredregression/currentmarketquotes; localERP6% includes Taiwan equity risk and is not independently estimated here. Bear9%,bull6.5% are risk sensitivities. Terminal0.5/1.5/2.0% reflect matureTaiwan services realgrowth/competitiveerosion plus modest long-run priceinflation; these areAI sustainable-growth hypotheses, not a claim that companyinflation alone determinesg. Allg<Ke.

What could go wrong

AIDC andIOWN spending may precede demand; management didnotpublish projectIRR, so highreturns cannotbe assumed.
Legacyvoice decline, regulatedtariffs and pricecompetition can offset premium5G/fiber migration.
LumpyICT contracts requireinventory/receivables and carry lowercashconversion than subscriberrevenue.
SubsidiaryNCI,convertiblebonds and groupownership changes are approximated by explicitreserves, not exact legalentitymodeling.
Spectrumrenewals,geopolitics and cable/networkresilience investment could require morecapital thanforecast.

Evidence against the thesis

The original2026guidance permits NI decline while currentmonthlyNI is outperforming; the lowbasecouldunderstate sustainedICT/AIsemiconductor subsidiarygrowth. Conversely, risingprojectrevenue didnotprevent H1 cashconversionbeing muchlower than full-year2025, and lowerH1capex reflects timing ratherthanprovenpermanentcapitalintensityreduction.

Confidence & limitations

Moderate on historical operating/cash evidence; low-to-moderate on valuation. Unobservedbeta/ERP and NCIcashreserve mean the output is a researchedAI estimate, notverifiedfairvalue. Numerical validation alone doesnotapproveeconomicassumptions.

Forecast timing

Fullcalendar2027–2031 cash flows discounted atyearend periods1–5, approximating a late2026anchor. Remaining2026cash isexcluded; roughly2monthstub isnotexplicitlymodeled. No completed2026cashflow iscounted asfuture.

Evidence & model checks

Checked TWDthousands→millions, ordinaryshare/ADR distinction, commonNI vs consolidatedCFO, capex seasonality, ROUdepreciation/leaseprincipal, contractcostamortization, NCIallowance and absence of debtbridge. Comparedbase/bear/bull cashconversion and normalizedpositive terminalFCFE. Ratehypotheses remain explicit. Prior model absent at researchstart.

Share count & valuation basis

Fixed7,770.881 million diluted ordinary-share approximation from H12026 Note33, reported7,770,881 thousand shares. This is2412.TW ordinary stock, not NYSE ADRs. No buyback accretion assumed; subsidiary convertibles/employee dilution are treated through conservative commonNI/NCI assumptions. Cash figures TWDmillions; future shares fixed, not exact dilution forecast.

7770.881 million shares · TWD · financial inputs in millions. Equity cash flows are discounted directly; debt is not subtracted again.

Sources & report dates

Official audited annual report ↗

· Report 2025-12-31

Audited FY2025/FY2024 financial statements; representation letter dated2026-02-26. URL calendar folder is not assumed publication date.

Official reviewed interim report ↗

Published 2026-08-05 · Report 2026-06-30

H1 consolidated cash-flow statement and Note33 diluted ordinary shares. All NT$thousands divided by1000.

Official earnings call ↗

Published 2026-08-05 · Report 2026-06-30

5G migration, broadband upgrades, ICT/AIDC growth, backloaded capex and undisclosed project IRRs; management commentary, not guaranteed returns.

Official monthly operating factsheet ↗

Published 2026-10-12 · Report 2026-09-30

Unaudited September/YTD figures in sheet1 X28/X41/X43/X45; separate from not-yet-released reviewed Q3 financial statements.

Official management guidance ↗

Published 2026-01-23 · Report 2026-12-31

Original2026 revenue241.99–243.68bn, commonNI37.39–38.94bn. Do not label old guidance as achieved facts or latest raised guidance.

Official event calendar ↗

Q3 results scheduled2026-11-04, upcoming asof2026-10-30; no Q3 full cash-flow statement invented.

Central bank TWD long-bond auction ↗

Published 2026-10-20 · Report 2026-10-20

10Y A15109 weighted accepted yield1.958%, highest2.001%; auction anchor not Oct30 secondary-market spot or policy rate.

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